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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · CenturyLink Field
Final
CardinalsArizona27
BY 14final margin
SeahawksSeattle13
Arizona Cardinals 27 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Final.
Seahawks -8 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Arizona Cardinals 27, Seahawks 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:20, 4th and 5, on Z.Gonzalez — 20.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:20 · 4th and 5
Z.Gonzalez
Seahawks
(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).
U 51 ✓
Seahawks closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:20, Seahawks +20.9% win probability on one snap.
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.DrakeCardinalsQ1 8:45(8:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
P.CooperCardinalsQ2 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper to SEA 33 for 14 yards (42-D.Hill).
10.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).
Swing +20.9 for SeahawksExpected points +7.03 for SeahawksThe model had Cardinals 3 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:20ARI +21% win prob(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).
2nd · 1:52SEA +11% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper to SEA 33 for 14 yards (42-D.Hill).
1st · 8:45SEA +8% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:14ARI +7% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 83-D.Moore to ARI 45 for 21 yards (55-Cha.Jones; 43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones), touched at ARI 44, RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 36. 58-J.Hicks to ARI 36 for no gain (48-J.Hollister).
2nd · 11:20SEA +6% win prob(11:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to ARI 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 35 for 13 yards (48-J.Hollister).
3rd · 0:01ARI +6% win prob(:01) 25-T.Homer left tackle to ARI 12 for -3 yards (58-J.Hicks, 59-J.Walker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.Fitzgerald's 21-yard touchdown catch with 4:29 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cardinals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.25Seahawks: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Cardinals: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.26Seahawks: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 67 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Seahawks 2.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 39.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.4% in week 15 against 21.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks8.8%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.2%, 18.9 points below their season mean of 58.1% and 1.4 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
46 dressed · 7 inactive
71Justin MurrayOT · Every snap100%69 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesOT · Every snap100%69 snaps
67Justin PughG · Full-time96%66 snaps
64J.R. SweezyG · Full-time94%65 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time94%65 snaps
53A.Q. ShipleyC · Full-time93%64 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time87%60 snaps
41Kenyan DrakeRB · Full-time81%56 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
7Brett HundleyQB · Rotational46%32 snaps
14Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational36%25 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational33%23 snaps
12Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
82Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Situational22%15 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Situational17%12 snaps
89Andy IsabellaWR · Situational14%10 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Situational6%4 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andre ChachereDBLamont GaillardGKeishawn BierriaLBVontarrius DoraLBDeionte ThompsonSJoshua MilesTKeeSean JohnsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Drake right+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:45 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 20 · gained 80 · +6.14 EP · +16.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 89 yards from the SEA 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3474%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.3218%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.2882%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.5446%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.7020%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5067%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 40
Cardinals0Seahawks6
Cardinals0Seahawks7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Cardinals 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cardinals6Seahawks7
Cardinals7Seahawks7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 33
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Cardinals 26
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 48
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 42
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 15
Cardinals13Seahawks7
Cardinals14Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Seahawks 21
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 27
Cardinals17Seahawks7
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 34
Cardinals20Seahawks7
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Seahawks 27
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 32
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
No good10 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 9
4th quarter44 plays
Cardinals20Seahawks10
Field goal1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals20Seahawks13
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 33
Cardinals26Seahawks13
Cardinals27Seahawks13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Seahawks 3
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Cardinals0
Seahawks6
