2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · CenturyLink Field

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -8 upsetU 51 ✓Seahawks closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:20, ARI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:20ARI — SEA ARI ball · 4th & 5ARI 92%

(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:20ARI +21% win prob(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).
Q2 · 1:52SEA +11% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper to SEA 33 for 14 yards (42-D.Hill).
Q1 · 8:45SEA +8% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:14ARI +7% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 83-D.Moore to ARI 45 for 21 yards (55-Cha.Jones; 43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones), touched at ARI 44, RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 36. 58-J.Hicks to ARI 36 for no gain (48-J.Hollister).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Seahawks
Offensive plays	67	56
Total yards	415 (edge)	224
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	45% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	51%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 34	5	6	1:33	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 11	10	89	4:37	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 20	3	80	0:17	Touchdown
4	SEA	SEA 25	9	47	4:49	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 1	7	27	3:25	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 40	4	-11	1:11	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 29	5	19	2:02	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 31	4	-11	0:58	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 35	4	7	1:56	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 6	4	7	2:15	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 46	6	54	2:41	Touchdown
12	SEA	SEA 18	5	9	1:50	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 45	11	51	2:04	Turnover on downs
14	SEA	SEA 25	3	-1	0:22	End of half
15	SEA	SEA 17	5	38	0:59	Fumble
16	ARI	ARI 36	6	37	2:25	Turnover on downs
17	SEA	SEA 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 29	4	-4	2:05	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 25	4	8	1:50	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 28	10	31	4:59	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	ARI 16	4	4	1:12	Turnover on downs
22	ARI	ARI 19	8	18	2:52	Punt
23	SEA	SEA 25	8	27	2:02	Turnover on downs
24	ARI	ARI 22	11	78	5:44	Touchdown
25	SEA	SEA 25	7	13	1:28	Turnover on downs
26	ARI	SEA 34	5	11	2:50	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 89 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -8
Closing total: 51
ARI moneyline: +322
SEA moneyline: -385

Seahawks closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Bradley Rogers
Rest: ARI 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.