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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 31 at Cleveland Browns 15. Final.
Ravens -9.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Baltimore Ravens 31, Browns 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:16, 4th and 3, on L.Jackson — 10.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:16 · 4th and 3
L.Jackson
Browns
(7:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Baltimore Ravens 31–15. Biggest swing: Q1 7:16, Browns +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
B.MayfieldBrownsQ2 12:02(12:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at BAL 13 - No Play. Baltimore challenged the defensive pass interference ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
8.9pts
J.LandryBrownsQ2 4:06(4:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry ran ob at CLE 19 for 12 yards (24-M.Peters).
8.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(7:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
Swing +10.1 for BrownsExpected points +2.60 for BrownsThe model had Browns 32 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:16BAL +10% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
2nd · 12:02CLE +9% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at BAL 13 - No Play. Baltimore challenged the defensive pass interference ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
2nd · 4:06CLE +9% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry ran ob at CLE 19 for 12 yards (24-M.Peters).
2nd · 1:24CLE +9% win prob(1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:09BAL +7% win prob(2:09) 27-K.Hunt sacked at CLE 20 for -8 yards (sack split by 45-J.Ferguson and 29-E.Thomas III). 67 McCray Eligible
2nd · 9:13CLE +6% win prob(9:13) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 21 for 11 yards (10-C.Moore).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Andrews's 39-yard touchdown catch with 1:24 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Ravens: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Ravens: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.02Browns: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Ravens: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.39Browns: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Browns’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Browns 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Browns11.8%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.7 pts, 6.8 points above their season mean of -1.0 pts and 1.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Patrick MekariT · Every snap100%73 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%73 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation67%49 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation59%43 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation55%40 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Rotational48%35 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Rotational41%30 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Rotational41%30 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational41%30 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational37%27 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational37%27 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational18%13 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Anthony AverettCBIman MarshallDBJustin EllisDTParker EhingerGBen PowersGTrace McSorleyQBJaleel ScottWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:24 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at CLE 39 · gained 39 · +4.14 EP · +10.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 84 yards from the BAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
722
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0878%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.8567%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR20+0.3720%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.7150%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3757%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2567%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.9820%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Browns3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 48
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Browns 41
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Ravens 47
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 32
2nd quarter52 plays
Ravens0Browns6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 1
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 30
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 22
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Browns 45
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Browns 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens6Browns6
Ravens7Browns6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Browns 39
Punt5 plays
Ravens13Browns6
Ravens14Browns6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Ravens20Browns6
Ravens21Browns6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Browns 12
Ravens21Browns9
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 41
4th quarter45 plays
Ravens24Browns9
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 2
Ravens24Browns15
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 1
Ravens30Browns15
Ravens31Browns15
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Browns 18
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 38
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -9.5
Closing total
48.5
Ravens moneyline
-370
Browns moneyline
+311
Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Ravens 10 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Freddie Kitchens
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 1:50CLE +5% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 21-M.Ingram II to CLE 39 for 24 yards (51-M.Wilson).
1st · 2:17BAL +5% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 45, RECOVERED by CLE-97-P.Gustin at BAL 45. 97-P.Gustin to BAL 45 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
