2019 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2019 · Gillette Stadium
Buffalo Bills
17
New England PatriotsWinner
24
New England Patriots 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 7:34, NE +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 7:34NE +19% win prob(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
- Q2 · 0:06NE +12% win prob(:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 10:03BUF +10% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 20 for -6 yards (55-J.Simon).
- Q4 · 2:34NE +10% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NE 8 for 25 yards (27-J.Jackson).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 53 | 67 |
| Total yards | 268 | 418 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 6.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 | 0.10 (edge) |
| Success rate | 38% | 54% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 52% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.11 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 | 0.06 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/11 | 7/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 21 | 5 | 32 | 2:29 | Fumble | |
| 2 | BUF | NE 31 | 7 | 14 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | NE | NE 25 | 13 | 70 | 7:26 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 28 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 5 | NE | NE 1 | 17 | 91 | 8:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 7 | NE | NE 14 | 6 | 13 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 23 | 4 | 4 | 0:25 | Punt | |
| 9 | NE | 50 | 4 | 9 | 0:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 41 | 7 | 59 | 0:32 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | NE | — | 1 | 0 | 0:01 | End of half | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 20 | 6 | 26 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 13 | NE | NE 23 | 7 | 54 | 3:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 36 | 7 | 64 | 2:29 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | NE | NE 35 | 5 | 12 | 2:39 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 27 | 4 | 9 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 21 | 11 | 77 | 6:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 19 | NE | NE 41 | 8 | 60 | 3:55 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 25 | 15 | 65 | 4:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NE | NE 15 | 2 | 0 | 1:05 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 91 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -7
- Closing total
- 39.5
- BUF moneyline
- +250
- NE moneyline
- -289
Patriots closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 41 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 33°F, wind 2 mph
- Referee
- John Hussey
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · NE 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.