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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 17 at New England Patriots 24. Final.
Patriots -7 pushO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
New England Patriots 24, Bills 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:34, 2nd and 13, on J.Brown — 19.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:34 · 2nd and 13
J.Brown
Bills
(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
Patriots closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
New England Patriots 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 7:34, Bills +19.5% win probability on one snap.
19.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.DawkinsBillsQ2 0:06(:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11.8pts
J.AllenPatriotsQ4 10:03(10:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 20 for -6 yards (55-J.Simon).
10.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 11 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bills157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
Swing −19.5 for PatriotsExpected points −5.44 for PatriotsThe model had Bills 8 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:34NE +19% win prob(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
2nd · 0:06NE +12% win prob(:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:03BUF +10% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 20 for -6 yards (55-J.Simon).
4th · 2:34NE +10% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NE 8 for 25 yards (27-J.Jackson).
4th · 10:48BUF +9% win prob(10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
4th · 9:01NE +9% win prob(9:01) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to BUF 29 for 30 yards (58-M.Milano).
4th · 1:55
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Burkhead's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:11 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:21S.Hauschka·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+33–0
4th10:48N.Folk·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+317–16
4th5:11R.Burkhead·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+817–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills2–7Patriots
268Total yards418
5.1Yards per play6.2
38%Success rate54%
18%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
14First downs23
4Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bills: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Bills: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.06Patriots: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 53 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Patriots’s 67 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −11.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots19.4%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.6 pts, 10.1 points below their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.4 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%54 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%54 snaps
70Cody FordT · Every snap100%54 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%54 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Full-time96%52 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time96%52 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Full-time89%48 snaps
10Cole BeasleyWR · Full-time85%46 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation74%40 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Heavy rotation57%31 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational31%17 snaps
18Andre RobertsWR · Situational24%13 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Situational15%8 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational11%6 snaps
61Spencer LongC · Situational11%6 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational4%2 snaps
20Frank GoreRB · Situational4%2 snaps
71Ryan BatesT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Dean MarloweDBVincent TaylorDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTTy NsekheTTommy SweeneyTEDuke WilliamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt BarkleyQB
New England Patriots
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%73 snaps
75Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%73 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Isaiah WynnT · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Mohamed SanuWR · Full-time96%70 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
72Marshall NewhouseT · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
15N'Keal HarryWR · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational45%33 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational42%31 snaps
84Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational42%31 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Rotational37%27 snaps
52Elandon RobertsMLB · Rotational29%21 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Situational19%14 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational7%5 snaps
38Brandon BoldenRB · Situational4%3 snaps
18Matthew SlaterWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jonathan JonesCBByron CowartDECody KesslerQBDamien HarrisRBJermaine EluemunorTKorey CunninghamTRyan IzzoTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jarrett StidhamQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
Q3 7:34 · Bills · 2nd & 13 at BUF 47 · gained 53 · +5.44 EP · +24.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 81 yards from the NE 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
684
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0560%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.0269%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.3116%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1556%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.1767%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.280%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 35
Bills3Patriots0
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 17
Bills3Patriots6
Bills3Patriots7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 49
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Patriots 47
Bills3Patriots10
Field goal18 plays, from the Patriots 1 to the Bills 18
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 37
Punt8 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Bills 41
Bills9Patriots10
Bills10Patriots10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Patriots 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 48
Bills10Patriots13
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Bills 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bills16Patriots13
Bills17Patriots13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 36 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 39
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Bills 38
4th quarter43 plays
Bills17Patriots16
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 26
Bills17Patriots22
Bills17Patriots24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Bills 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 8
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
