For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina6
BY 32final margin
ColtsIndianapolis38
Carolina Panthers 6 at Indianapolis Colts 38. Final.
Colts -7.5 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Indianapolis Colts 38, Panthers 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:58, 4th and 7 — 5.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:58 · 4th and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Colts closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Indianapolis Colts 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:58, Colts +5.1% win probability on one snap.
5.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
W.GrierColtsQ1 14:57(14:57) 3-W.Grier pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel (35-P.Desir) [93-J.Sheard].
2.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ1 14:01(14:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to IND 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines to CAR 36 for 40 yards (53-B.Burns).
2.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Panthers163 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.1 for ColtsExpected points +5.46 for ColtsThe model had Panthers 9 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:58CAR +5% win prob(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:57CAR +2% win prob(14:57) 3-W.Grier pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel (35-P.Desir) [93-J.Sheard].
1st · 14:01CAR +2% win prob(14:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to IND 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines to CAR 36 for 40 yards (53-B.Burns).
1st · 9:30IND +2% win prob(9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:51CAR +2% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to CAR 26 for 1 yard (34-R.Ya-Sin).
1st · 9:50CAR +2% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 83-M.Johnson to CAR 1 for 2 yards (47-R.Cockrell).
1st · 12:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Brissett's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:30 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:30J.Brissett·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st7:58N.Hines·84-yd return TD84-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–14
2nd10:22J.Slye·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–14
Colts ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Panthers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Panthers: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.38Colts: +0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 71 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Colts’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Colts 5.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.4 pts in week 15 against +5.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 100.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 40.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Colts13.2%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.9 pts, 4.6 points above their season mean of 1.4 pts and 1.2 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett up+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:30 · Colts · 4th & goal at CAR 1 · gained 1 · +1.90 EP · +6.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
610
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1977%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.2368%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.3735%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4050%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.4920%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Panthers0Colts6
Panthers0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 1
Panthers0Colts13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Panthers0Colts14
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Colts 5
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 25
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Panthers3Colts14
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Colts 9
Panthers3Colts20
Panthers3Colts21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Panthers 2
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 35
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Panthers 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Panthers3Colts24
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Panthers 13
Panthers6Colts24
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Colts 30
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
The period ended12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Colts 34
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Colts 12
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Panthers 37
Panthers6Colts30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 4 to the Panthers 25
Panthers6Colts31
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33
Panthers6Colts37
Panthers6Colts38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Panthers 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Colts 49
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
