2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Carolina Panthers
6
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
38
Indianapolis Colts 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:58, CAR +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 7:58CAR +5% win prob(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 14:57CAR +2% win prob(14:57) 3-W.Grier pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel (35-P.Desir) [93-J.Sheard].
- Q1 · 14:01CAR +2% win prob(14:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to IND 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines to CAR 36 for 40 yards (53-B.Burns).
- Q1 · 9:30IND +2% win prob(9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Panthers | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 59 |
| Total yards | 286 | 326 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.0 | 5.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.19 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 54% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | -0.13 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.33 | 0.38 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/14 | 4/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:13 | Punt | |
| 2 | IND | CAR 36 | 9 | 31 | 4:19 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:47 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 66 | 6:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | IND | IND 14 | 7 | 11 | 1:05 | Punt | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 30 | 12 | 61 | 5:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | IND | IND 25 | 11 | 75 | 5:04 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 2 | 2:02 | Interception | |
| 9 | IND | IND 35 | 9 | 56 | 2:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 4 | 1 | 4 | 0:39 | End of half | |
| 11 | IND | IND 25 | 11 | 43 | 4:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 43 | 6:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 14 | CAR | CAR 30 | 15 | 58 | 4:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | IND | IND 12 | 8 | 33 | 4:30 | Punt | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 4 | 5 | 14 | 1:52 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 25 | 3 | 8 | 0:32 | Interception | |
| 18 | IND | IND 24 | 9 | 75 | 3:34 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 25 | 6 | 26 | 1:38 | Interception | |
| 20 | IND | IND 7 | 3 | 0 | 1:32 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -7.5
- Closing total
- 46
- CAR moneyline
- +264
- IND moneyline
- -308
Colts closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 46; the game landed 44 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Walt Anderson
- Rest
- CAR 7 days · IND 6 days
- Coaches
- Ron Rivera vs Frank Reich