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2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati35
BY 3final margin
DolphinsMiami38
Cincinnati Bengals 35 at Miami Dolphins 38. Final.
Bengals -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Miami Dolphins 38, Bengals 35 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:25, 4th and 6 — 40.7 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:25 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Bengals
(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
O 46 ✓
Bengals closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:25, Bengals +40.7% win probability on one snap.
40.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.EifertBengalsQ4 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 85-T.Eifert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsOT 4:27(4:27) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 16 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
36.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Bengals at 4 of 18 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bengals at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bengals227 of 245 plays carry both curves
(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
Swing −40.7 for DolphinsExpected points +0.67 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 231
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:25MIA +41% win prob(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
Overtime · 4:27MIA +36% win prob(4:27) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 16 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
4th · 0:04MIA +29% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 85-T.Eifert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:31MIA +29% win prob(5:31) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 40 for 5 yards (82-C.Carter).
Overtime · 7:50MIA +27% win prob(7:50) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to CIN 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
Overtime · 2:00MIA +26% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-I.Ford to CIN 14 for 28 yards (57-G.Pratt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Sanders's 37-yard field goal with 0:04 left in overtime put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime0:04J.Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+335–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryDolphins
Bengals0–7Dolphins
434Total yards508
5.0Yards per play6.0
38%Success rate43%
22%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays8
26First downs26
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Bengals: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.35Dolphins: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Bengals: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.15Dolphins: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 87 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 84 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Dolphins 6.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Dolphins8.2%
inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 46.5 points below their season mean of 46.5% and 1.3 times their own 35.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
K.Huber punts+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
OT 3:25 · Bengals · 4th & 6 at CIN 40 · gained nothing · -0.67 EP · +40.7% win probability
225 snaps placed · 20 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 245 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 245 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 87 yards from the MIA 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
245 of 245 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
245
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
936
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.0481%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.4576%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.1648%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1264%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.0920%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
245 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
245 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bengals0Dolphins6
Bengals0Dolphins7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Bengals0Dolphins13
Bengals0Dolphins14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 26
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 48
2nd quarter60 plays
Bengals3Dolphins14
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 43
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bengals 39
Bengals3Dolphins20
Bengals3Dolphins21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Bengals 31
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Bengals 43
Bengals6Dolphins21
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 38
Bengals6Dolphins27
Bengals6Dolphins28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Bengals 13
Bengals12Dolphins28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Dolphins 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 36
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Dolphins 43
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter65 plays
Bengals12Dolphins34
Bengals12Dolphins35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Bengals 2
Bengals18Dolphins35
Bengals19Dolphins35
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Dolphins 8
No good16 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Bengals 27
Bengals25Dolphins35
Bengals27Dolphins35
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Dolphins 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Bengals33Dolphins35
Touchdown5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Bengals35Dolphins35
Overtime33 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 5 to the Bengals 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals35Dolphins38
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bengals 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
