2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Miami DolphinsWinner

CIN -1.5 upsetO 46 ✓15 mph windBengals closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:25, MIA +41% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:25CIN — MIA CIN ball · 4th & 6MIA 78%

(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:25MIA +41% win prob(3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
OT · 4:27MIA +36% win prob(4:27) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 16 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q4 · 0:04MIA +29% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 85-T.Eifert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 5:31MIA +29% win prob(5:31) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 40 for 5 yards (82-C.Carter).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Dolphins
Offensive plays	87	84
Total yards	434	508 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	38%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	4/18	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26	26
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	14	85	6:28	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 25	5	1	1:38	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 25	8	75	1:54	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 24	5	2	1:35	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 15	4	7	1:07	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 20	12	73	6:29	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 25	5	6	1:33	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 36	4	7	1:30	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 6	4	0	0:59	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 34	4	5	1:39	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 13	7	87	2:48	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	0:32	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 33	6	24	0:55	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 15	8	39	0:51	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
16	CIN	CIN 25	6	13	2:02	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 17	10	68	4:34	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 25	12	80	4:46	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 22	6	14	2:12	Interception
20	CIN	CIN 40	4	5	1:11	Fumble
21	MIA	CIN 45	10	38	4:03	Touchdown
22	CIN	CIN 28	12	77	5:01	Touchdown
23	MIA	MIA 14	11	37	3:04	Turnover on downs
24	CIN	CIN 37	15	60	2:38	Touchdown
25	MIA	CIN 46	6	56	0:29	Touchdown
26	MIA	MIA 25	6	21	2:18	Punt
27	CIN	CIN 5	4	9	2:21	Punt
28	MIA	MIA 40	4	-10	1:08	Punt
29	CIN	CIN 36	4	9	0:54	Punt
30	MIA	MIA 30	10	56	3:19	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 87 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1.5
Closing total: 46
CIN moneyline: -118
MIA moneyline: +107

Bengals closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 73 — over by 27.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CIN 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Brian Flores

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.