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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CowboysDallas9
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia17
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Philadelphia Eagles 17. Final.
Cowboys -2 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles 17, Cowboys 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:19, 3rd and 1, on T.Pollard — 17.8 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:19 · 3rd and 1
T.Pollard
Eagles
(10:19) 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 26. PHI-93-T.Jernigan was injured during the play.
U 47 ✓
Cowboys closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 17–9. Biggest swing: Q3 10:19, Eagles +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.WardEaglesQ3 2:39(2:39) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 84-G.Ward pushed ob at DAL 19 for 38 yards (25-X.Woods).
8.5pts
D.PrescottEaglesQ4 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
9.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(10:19) 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES
Swing +17.8 for EaglesExpected points +5.16 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 12 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:19DAL +18% win prob(10:19) 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 26. PHI-93-T.Jernigan was injured during the play.
4th · 1:21DAL +10% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 2:39PHI +9% win prob(2:39) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 84-G.Ward pushed ob at DAL 19 for 38 yards (25-X.Woods).
2nd · 14:56PHI +8% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup to PHI 38 for 41 yards (21-R.Darby).
1st · 11:15PHI +8% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside to DAL 24 for 12 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
4th · 11:02DAL +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Elliott's 36-yard field goal with 9:36 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:36J.Elliott·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+30–3
4th8:04K.Forbath·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+39–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys0–9Eagles
311Total yards432
5.0Yards per play6.2
45%Success rate47%
21%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays6
16First downs22
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Cowboys: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.05Eagles: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.18Eagles: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Cowboys: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.17Eagles: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 62 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's early-down pass rate, 73.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 15.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +9.9 pts, is past their previous high of +5.5 pts in week 12 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.0 pts in week 15 against +3.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Eagles8.5%
inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.9 pts, 10.7 points above their season mean of -0.8 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Pollard left−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:19) 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-T.Pollard left end to PHI 26 for -1 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 26. PHI-93-T.Jernigan was injured during the play.
Q3 10:19 · Cowboys · 3rd & 1 at PHI 25 · lost 1 · -5.16 EP · −17.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
41%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0185%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38+0.1674%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16-0.3331%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5-0.0960%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4720%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.7760%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Cowboys0Eagles3
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 18
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 25
Cowboys0Eagles9
Cowboys0Eagles10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Cowboys 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 38
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Cowboys3Eagles10
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Eagles 31
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Cowboys 33
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Eagles 47
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 46
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 36
No good8 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Cowboys 35
Cowboys6Eagles10
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Eagles 14
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 25
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 42
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 46
Cowboys6Eagles16
Cowboys6Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 33
No good6 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Cowboys 37
Cowboys9Eagles17
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Eagles 31
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Cowboys 40
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Eagles 19
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Cowboys 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys0
Eagles3
