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2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
LionsDetroit17
BY 10final margin
BroncosDenver27
Detroit Lions 17 at Denver Broncos 27. Final.
Broncos -9.5 ✓O 40 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Denver Broncos 27, Lions 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:56, 3rd and 2, on K.Golladay — 14.1 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:56 · 3rd and 2
K.Golladay
Lions
(3:56) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Denver Broncos 27–17. Biggest swing: Q3 3:56, Lions +14.1% win probability on one snap.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.GolladayLionsQ1 11:27(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to DEN 11 for 35 yards (36-T.Marshall).
9.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetLionsQ2 11:10(11:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Lions at 2 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Lions151 of 161 plays carry both curves
(3:56) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.1 for BroncosExpected points −2.04 for BroncosThe model had Lions 20 points higher than the market did.play 103
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:56DEN +14% win prob(3:56) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:10DET +10% win prob(11:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:27DEN +10% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to DEN 11 for 35 yards (36-T.Marshall).
3rd · 1:01DEN +9% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 83-A.Beck pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay to DET 45 for 6 yards (90-T.Flowers). Handoff to DEN 83, Pass to DEN 30
3rd · 3:06DEN +8% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DET-23-D.Slay, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at DEN 27 - No Play.
2nd · 9:14DEN +7% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 17-D.Hamilton to DET 34 for 13 yards (29-R.Melvin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Hamilton's 3-yard touchdown catch with 13:12 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:04M.Prater·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+33–0
2nd11:10J.Agnew·64-yd return TD64-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+710–0
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Lions: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.18Broncos: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 49 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Lions 2, Broncos 6.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 2.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.3% in week 9.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.9 pts in week 15 against −8.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.0% in week 15 against 48.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos21.4%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 8.0 points below their season mean of 10.8% and 1.6 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%50 snaps
60Graham GlasgowC · Every snap100%50 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Every snap100%50 snaps
76Oday AboushiOG · Every snap100%50 snaps
10David BloughQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Full-time96%48 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time96%48 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Full-time82%41 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Heavy rotation62%31 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Heavy rotation58%29 snaps
15Chris LacyWR · Rotational48%24 snaps
14Travis FulghamWR · Rotational34%17 snaps
33Kerryon JohnsonRB · Rotational32%16 snaps
43Bo ScarbroughRB · Rotational28%14 snaps
31Ty JohnsonRB · Situational24%12 snaps
89Isaac NautaTE · Situational14%7 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Situational14%7 snaps
39Jamal AgnewCB · Situational8%4 snaps
70Dan SkipperG · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mike FordCBMike JacksonDBJamie MederDTA'Shawn RobinsonDTWes HillsRBRick WagnerTCaleb BenenochT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Blough pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to DEN 11 for 35 yards (36-T.Marshall).
Q1 11:27 · Lions · 3rd & 8 at DEN 46 · gained 35 · +3.62 EP · +14.6% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
539
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.1875%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.3556%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0352%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1829%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0083%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Lions3Broncos0
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Broncos 7
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 28
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Lions 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 30
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 43
Lions9Broncos0
Touchdown5 plays
Lions10Broncos0
Lions10Broncos6
Lions10Broncos7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Lions 1
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 26
Lions10Broncos10
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Lions 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Lions10Broncos13
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Lions 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Lions16Broncos13
Lions17Broncos13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Broncos 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Lions 45
4th quarter47 plays
Lions17Broncos19
Lions17Broncos20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 3
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 39
Lions17Broncos26
Lions17Broncos27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Lions 27
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 27
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 27
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
