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2019 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 23, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay23
BY 13final margin
VikingsMinnesota10
Green Bay Packers 23 at Minnesota Vikings 10. Final.
Vikings -4 upsetU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Green Bay Packers 23, Vikings 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:13, 3rd and 5, on A.Jones — 15.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:13 · 3rd and 5
A.Jones
Vikings
(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 33 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at GB 34. 54-E.Kendricks pushed ob at GB 10 for 24 yards (33-A.Jones).
Dome
Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 23–10. Biggest swing: Q1 14:13, Vikings +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.HarrisVikingsQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at GB 36. 41-A.Harris to GB 26 for 10 yards (32-T.Ervin).
10.7pts
K.KingPackersQ3 7:27(7:27) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB 8. 20-K.King to GB 47 for 39 yards (83-T.Conklin). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
12.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — -0.16 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 33 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at GB 34. 54-E.Kendricks pushed ob at GB 10 for 24 yards (33-A.Jones).
Swing +15.1 for VikingsExpected points +5.53 for VikingsThe model had Packers 7 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:13GB +15% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 33 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at GB 34. 54-E.Kendricks pushed ob at GB 10 for 24 yards (33-A.Jones).
3rd · 7:27GB +12% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB 8. 20-K.King to GB 47 for 39 yards (83-T.Conklin). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
2nd · 15:00GB +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at GB 36. 41-A.Harris to GB 26 for 10 yards (32-T.Ervin).
2nd · 0:03GB +10% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
1st · 13:14GB +10% win prob(13:14) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
2nd · 13:39MIN +10% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 12-yard rushing touchdown with 2:09 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st13:14D.Bailey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+30–3
1st2:05M.Crosby·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+33–3
2nd7:04M.Crosby·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+36–10
2nd0:03M.Crosby·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+39–10
3rd2:09A.Jones·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+817–10
4th6:01A.Jones·56-yd TD run56-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+623–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers7–1Vikings
388Total yards139
5.3Yards per play2.6
49%Success rate26%
38%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays3
24First downs7
3Sacks taken5
3Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Packers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.55Vikings: −0.55 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Packers: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.67Vikings: −0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Packers: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.27Vikings: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 73 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Vikings’s 53 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Vikings 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings11.4%
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 24.8 points below their season mean of 24.8% and 1.0 times their own 24.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:27) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB 8. 20-K.King to GB 47 for 39 yards (83-T.Conklin). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
Q3 7:27 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -5.83 EP · −16.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.31
Success rate
34%
Yards
524
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1370%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2640%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.4685%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.5567%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.7046%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0750%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Packers0Vikings3
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 5
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 41
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 27
Packers3Vikings3
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Vikings 24
Punt6 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Packers3Vikings9
Packers3Vikings10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 21
Packers6Vikings10
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 15
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 36
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Packers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Packers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 17
Packers9Vikings10
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Vikings 1
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Packers 46
Packers15Vikings10
Packers17Vikings10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Vikings 12
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 38
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 45
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 35
Packers23Vikings10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 44
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 30
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 47
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -4
Closing total
47
Packers moneyline
+179
Vikings moneyline
-202
Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Packers 8 days · Vikings 8 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Zimmer
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 9:02MIN +10% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 43 for 28 yards (31-A.Amos). MIN-14-S.Diggs was injured during the play.
3rd · 2:09MIN +8% win prob(2:09) 33-A.Jones left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers0
Vikings3
