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2019 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 23, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

23

Minnesota Vikings

10

MIN -4 upsetU 47 ✓Dome

Green Bay Packers 23–10. Biggest swing: Q1 14:13, GB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 14:13GB — MIN GB ball · 3rd & 5MIN 66%

(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 33 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at GB 34. 54-E.Kendricks pushed ob at GB 10 for 24 yards (33-A.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:13GB +15% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 33 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at GB 34. 54-E.Kendricks pushed ob at GB 10 for 24 yards (33-A.Jones).
  2. Q3 · 7:27GB +12% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB 8. 20-K.King to GB 47 for 39 yards (83-T.Conklin). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
  3. Q2 · 15:00GB +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at GB 36. 41-A.Harris to GB 26 for 10 yards (32-T.Ervin).
  4. Q2 · 0:03GB +10% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersVikings
Offensive plays7353
Total yards388 (edge)139
Yards per play5.3 (edge)2.6
Expected points added / play-0.16 (edge)-0.55
Success rate49% (edge)26%
Dropback rate60%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.38 (edge)-0.67
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.27
Third downs5/13 (edge)4/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)33
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)7
Sacks taken3 (edge)5
Turnovers31 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.55.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 25481:00Fumble
2MINGB 10450:49Turnover on downs
3GBGB 2510334:34Punt
4MINMIN 97182:33Punt
5GBGB 279494:04Turnover on downs
6MINMIN 25531:33Punt
7GBGB 36220:35Interception
8MINGB 264261:19Touchdown
9GBGB 2514606:33Turnover on downs
10MINMIN 25552:08Punt
11GBGB 352140:45Fumble
12MINGB 48461:30Turnover on downs
13GBGB 42410:53Punt
14MINMIN 10450:49Punt
15GBGB 458540:55Turnover on downs
16MINMIN 25571:24Punt
17GBGB 128213:51Punt
18MINMIN 236312:33Interception
19GBGB 479555:09Touchdown
20MINMIN 257202:55Punt
21GBGB 9784:31Punt
22MINMIN 334-41:57Punt
23GBGB 254751:49Touchdown
24MINMIN 259222:17Punt
25GBGB 22481:03Punt
26MINMIN 434-50:41Turnover on downs
27GBMIN 23301:50End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -4
Closing total
47
GB moneyline
+179
MIN moneyline
-202

Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
GB 8 days · MIN 8 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.