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2019 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
TexansHouston23
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
Houston Texans 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Final.
Texans -3 pushU 50 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Houston Texans 23, Buccaneers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:31, 3rd and 1, on J.Addae — 22.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:31 · 3rd and 1
J.Addae
Texans
(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
16.7 mph wind
Texans closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:31, Texans +22.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
22.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
B.RobyTexansQ1 14:19(14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.1pts
J.WatsonBuccaneersQ2 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 2 giveaways, against Buccaneers at 5 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 17 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 14 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Texans173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
Swing −22.5 for BuccaneersExpected points −3.82 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 8 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:31HOU +22% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
2nd · 0:20TB +16% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:19HOU +14% win prob(14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:31TB +12% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 14-D.Carter to TB 31 for 39 yards (54-L.David).
4th · 3:38HOU +11% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
3rd · 11:02TB +10% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at TB 10 for 19 yards (34-M.Edwards).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Fairbairn's 37-yard field goal with 7:16 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd9:33K.Fairbairn·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+320–17
3rd1:18M.Gay·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+320–20
4th7:16K.Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Texans1–8Buccaneers
230Total yards435
3.7Yards per play6.0
32%Success rate40%
29%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
12First downs20
5Sacks taken3
2Turnovers5
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Texans: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.07Buccaneers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.50Texans: −0.50 expected points added per play
−0.57Buccaneers: −0.57 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 72 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Buccaneers 2.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Texans 435-230 but lost the turnover battle 5-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Buccaneers19.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 22.6 points above their season mean of 27.4% and 1.0 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
Q4 1:31 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 1 at TB 38 · gained nothing · -3.82 EP · −29.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 81 yards from the TB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
36%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1367%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2064%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.3452%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.8880%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.6767%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans6Buccaneers0
Touchdown3 plays
Texans7Buccaneers0
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 16
Texans10Buccaneers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 14
No good7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Texans 28
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Buccaneers 36
Texans10Buccaneers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Texans 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 40
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Texans 16
Fumble lost1 play
Texans16Buccaneers3
Texans17Buccaneers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 29
Texans17Buccaneers9
Texans17Buccaneers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Texans 4
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Texans17Buccaneers16
Texans17Buccaneers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Texans20Buccaneers17
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Buccaneers 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Texans20Buccaneers20
Field goal17 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Texans 23
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 16
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Texans23Buccaneers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Buccaneers 19
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Texans 38
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
