2019 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HOU -3 pushU 50 ✓Texans closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:31, HOU +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:31HOU — TB TB ball · 3rd & 1HOU 74%

(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:31HOU +22% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
Q2 · 0:20TB +16% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:19HOU +14% win prob(14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:31TB +12% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 14-D.Carter to TB 31 for 39 yards (54-L.David).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	62	72
Total yards	230	435 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	-0.20 (edge)
Success rate	32%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50 (edge)	-0.57
Third downs	4/14	9/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	5

Buccaneers outgained Texans 435–230 but lost the turnover battle 5–2. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 17	3	0	0:48	Defensive touchdown
2	TB	TB 12	4	4	1:03	Defensive touchdown
3	HOU	TB 24	6	5	1:40	Turnover on downs
4	TB	TB 15	7	59	3:08	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 49	6	10	3:43	Punt
6	TB	TB 10	9	68	3:42	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 25	5	13	1:41	Fumble
8	TB	HOU 31	1	0	0:09	Interception
9	HOU	HOU 14	4	2	1:42	Punt
10	TB	TB 30	1	7	0:08	Fumble
11	HOU	TB 42	8	42	2:54	Touchdown
12	TB	TB 25	6	23	2:14	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 20	4	9	1:55	Punt
14	TB	TB 19	10	81	3:16	Touchdown
15	HOU	HOU 25	5	3	1:15	Interception
16	TB	HOU 39	6	39	0:29	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
18	HOU	HOU 25	15	73	5:30	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 20	17	57	8:17	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 25	5	1	1:50	Punt
21	TB	TB 32	5	17	2:22	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 12	10	64	4:50	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 17	9	43	3:37	Turnover on downs
24	HOU	HOU 40	4	9	1:13	Punt
25	TB	TB 10	5	28	0:54	Interception
26	HOU	TB 37	4	-1	1:06	Punt
27	TB	TB 4	2	9	0:21	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3
Closing total: 50
HOU moneyline: -150
TB moneyline: +135

Texans closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 50; the game landed 43 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: HOU 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Bruce Arians