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Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Atlanta Falcons 24. Final.
Falcons -7.5 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Atlanta Falcons 24, Jaguars 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:34, 1st and 10, on D.Freeman — 6.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:34 · 1st and 10
D.Freeman
Falcons
(11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.6
Dome
Falcons closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Atlanta Falcons 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 11:34, Falcons +6.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetFalconsQ1 11:277-Y.Koo kicks 67 yards from ATL 35 to JAX -2. 13-M.Walker to JAX 25 for 27 yards (40-K.Smith). FUMBLES (40-K.Smith), RECOVERED by ATL-23-B.Hill at JAX 25. 23-B.Hill to JAX 25 for no gain (23-R.Armstead).
3.2pts
K.ColeJaguarsQ4 5:45(5:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole to ATL 5 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).
3.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 14 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Jaguars170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.6 for FalconsExpected points +1.78 for FalconsThe model had Jaguars 13 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:34ATL +7% win prob(11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:45ATL +3% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole to ATL 5 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).
1st · 11:27JAX +3% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks 67 yards from ATL 35 to JAX -2. 13-M.Walker to JAX 25 for 27 yards (40-K.Smith). FUMBLES (40-K.Smith), RECOVERED by ATL-23-B.Hill at JAX 25. 23-B.Hill to JAX 25 for no gain (23-R.Armstead).
4th · 6:55ATL +3% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 18-C.Conley ran ob at ATL 34 for 14 yards.
1st · 9:34ATL +3% win prob(9:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:05ATL +3% win prob(12:05) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper pushed ob at JAX 17 for 25 yards (58-A.Calitro).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Freeman's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 11:34 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:34D.Freeman·17-yd TD run17-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th12:08C.Conley·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom G.Minshew IIfrom G.Minshew II · two-point no good+612–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryFalcons
Jaguars1–8Falcons
289Total yards521
4.9Yards per play7.4
37%Success rate51%
21%Third-down rate58%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays11
15First downs29
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Jaguars: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.18Falcons: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.09Falcons: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Falcons’s 70 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Falcons9.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.5 pts, 5.6 points above their season mean of 2.9 pts and 1.1 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jordan MillerDBAustin LarkinDESean HarlowGJamon BrownGDeadrin SenatNTJohn WetzelTBrandon PowellWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt SchaubQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Y.Koo kicks−8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
7-Y.Koo kicks 67 yards from ATL 35 to JAX -2. 13-M.Walker to JAX 25 for 27 yards (40-K.Smith). FUMBLES (40-K.Smith), RECOVERED by ATL-23-B.Hill at JAX 25. 23-B.Hill to JAX 25 for no gain (23-R.Armstead).
Q1 11:27 · Jaguars · Kickoff at ATL 35 · gained nothing · -5.74 EP · −8.0% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 87 yards from the ATL 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0769%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1283%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3145%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1567%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3029%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2514%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Jaguars0Falcons6
Jaguars0Falcons7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Jaguars 17
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars0Falcons13
Jaguars0Falcons14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 8
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 42
No good12 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Jaguars 19
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 34
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 33
Jaguars3Falcons14
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Falcons 21
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jaguars 40
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 11
Jaguars3Falcons17
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Jaguars 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 47
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Jaguars 37
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 2 to the Jaguars 4
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Jaguars 38
Jaguars6Falcons17
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Falcons 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Jaguars 44
4th quarter48 plays
Jaguars6Falcons23
Jaguars6Falcons24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 3
Jaguars12Falcons24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Falcons 42
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 29
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Falcons 5
The period ended15 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Jaguars 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
