2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars
12
Atlanta FalconsWinner
24
Atlanta Falcons 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 11:34, ATL +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 11:34ATL +7% win prob(11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 5:45ATL +3% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole to ATL 5 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).
- Q1 · 11:27JAX +3% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks 67 yards from ATL 35 to JAX -2. 13-M.Walker to JAX 25 for 27 yards (40-K.Smith). FUMBLES (40-K.Smith), RECOVERED by ATL-23-B.Hill at JAX 25. 23-B.Hill to JAX 25 for no gain (23-R.Armstead).
- Q4 · 6:55ATL +3% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 18-C.Conley ran ob at ATL 34 for 14 yards.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jaguars | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 70 |
| Total yards | 289 | 521 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 7.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.04 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 71% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 | 0.23 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/14 | 7/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 11 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 29 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 18 | 8 | 72 | 3:33 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | JAX | — | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | Fumble | |
| 3 | ATL | JAX 25 | 5 | 25 | 1:50 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 17 | 2:44 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 9 | 11 | 72 | 5:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 32 | 4 | 2 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 20 | 4 | 13 | 1:16 | Interception | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 16 | 11 | 62 | 5:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 55 | 4:14 | Punt | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 1 | 7 | 3 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 41 | 11 | 54 | 1:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 16 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 25 | 6 | 28 | 3:20 | Punt | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 22 | 8 | 41 | 2:38 | Punt | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 2 | 4 | 3 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 49 | 2 | 8 | 0:37 | Interception | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 29 | 9 | 39 | 4:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 13 | 9 | 87 | 3:53 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 25 | 6 | 75 | 1:36 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | ATL | ATL 8 | 8 | 19 | 3:37 | Punt | |
| 21 | JAX | JAX 33 | 15 | 60 | 3:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | ATL | ATL 7 | 9 | 75 | 4:30 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ATL -7.5
- Closing total
- 48
- JAX moneyline
- +268
- ATL moneyline
- -313
Falcons closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 48; the game landed 36 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Adrian Hill
- Rest
- JAX 7 days · ATL 7 days
- Coaches
- Doug Marrone vs Dan Quinn