2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Soldier Field

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Chicago Bears

KC -6.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓Chiefs closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Kansas City Chiefs 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:37, CHI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:37KC — CHI KC ball · 3rd & 5KC 82%

(1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:37CHI +7% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:32CHI +6% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine).
Q1 · 8:40CHI +5% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to KC 35 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller).
Q1 · 12:16CHI +5% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles right tackle to 50 for 8 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Bears
Offensive plays	62	58
Total yards	351 (edge)	234
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	45% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	58%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	11	24	5:32	Punt
2	KC	KC 18	16	82	7:58	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 18	5	4	1:43	Punt
4	KC	KC 30	7	16	3:06	Turnover on downs
5	CHI	CHI 25	9	32	4:07	Punt
6	KC	KC 5	14	105	6:42	Touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 18	5	33	0:52	End of half
8	KC	KC 25	7	20	2:56	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 13	15	78	7:35	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 4	5	14	1:39	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 49	6	8	2:50	Turnover on downs
12	KC	KC 29	11	71	4:55	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	8	21	2:23	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 43	11	43	6:02	Turnover on downs
15	CHI	CHI 25	10	34	1:34	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 36	1	0	0:06	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 105 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6.5
Closing total: 45.5
KC moneyline: -295
CHI moneyline: +254

Chiefs closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 29 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Matt Nagy