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Kansas City Chiefs 26, Bears 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:37, 3rd and 5, on P.Mahomes — 6.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:37 · 3rd and 5
P.Mahomes
Chiefs
(1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.9
Chiefs closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:37, Chiefs +6.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.WatkinsChiefsQ1 8:40(8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to KC 35 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller).
4.6pts
T.HillChiefsQ1 3:32(3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine).
6.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Chiefs158 of 166 plays carry both curves
(1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.9 for BearsExpected points −2.78 for BearsThe model had Bears 22 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:37CHI +7% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:32CHI +6% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine).
1st · 8:40CHI +5% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to KC 35 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller).
1st · 12:16CHI +5% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles right tackle to 50 for 8 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
1st · 4:19KC +4% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CHI 47 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack).
1st · 10:12KC +3% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked ob at CHI 39 for -8 yards (55-F.Clark).
2nd · 11:46CHI +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Mahomes's 12-yard rushing touchdown with 1:37 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:37P.Mahomes·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd11:46H.Butker·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–0
3rd0:03E.Pineiro·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+317–3
4th10:11Dam.Williams·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom P.Mahomesfrom P.Mahomes · kick no good, hit left upright+623–3
4th1:44H.Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+326–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBears
Chiefs7–1Bears
351Total yards234
5.7Yards per play4.0
45%Success rate33%
55%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays4
21First downs15
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Chiefs: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.33Bears: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Chiefs: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Bears 1.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears2.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 12.6% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Michael JosephDBAkiem HicksDTAbdullah AndersonDTCorey LevinGBobby MassieTBradley SowellTETaylor GabrielWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chase DanielQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine).
Q1 3:32 · Chiefs · 3rd & 18 at CHI 47 · gained 19 · +3.29 EP · +11.2% win probability
156 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2264%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3551%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1465%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3757%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs6Bears0
Chiefs7Bears0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Bears 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 20
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Chiefs10Bears0
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Bears 39
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chiefs 43
Chiefs16Bears0
Chiefs17Bears0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Bears 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 46
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 45
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 18
Chiefs17Bears3
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Chiefs 28
4th quarter49 plays
Chiefs23Bears3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Bears 12
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chiefs 41
Chiefs26Bears3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Bears 14
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chiefs 33
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
