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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 31 at San Francisco 49ers 34. Final.
49ers -7 no coverO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
San Francisco 49ers 34, Rams 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:58, 3rd and 16, on E.Sanders — 29.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:58 · 3rd and 16
E.Sanders
49ers
(:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-E.Sanders to LA 23 for 46 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught at LA 28. 5-yac
49ers closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, 49ers +29.6% win probability on one snap.
29.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
F.Warner49ersQ2 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at LA 46. 54-F.Warner for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.4pts
K.Bourne49ersQ4 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to SF 37 for 18 yards (32-E.Weddle). Caught at SF 33. 4-yac
18.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.07 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Rams at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Rams169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-E.Sanders to LA 23 for 46 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught at LA 28. 5-yac
Swing +29.6 for 49ersExpected points +2.57 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:58SF +30% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-E.Sanders to LA 23 for 46 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught at LA 28. 5-yac
2nd · 0:56LA +24% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at LA 46. 54-F.Warner for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:57SF +19% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to SF 37 for 18 yards (32-E.Weddle). Caught at SF 33. 4-yac
3rd · 5:12SF +18% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 8. 8-yac
4th · 7:23SF +13% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 82-R.Dwelley to LA 18 for 25 yards (32-E.Weddle). PENALTY on LA-32-E.Weddle, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at LA 18. Caught at LA 21. 3-yac
4th · 6:14SF +13% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA -2. 0-yac
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Gould's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:36G.Zuerlein·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+331–31
4th0:03R.Gould·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.NelsonLead never changed again+331–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams5–349ers
395Total yards336
5.6Yards per play6.2
44%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
23First downs17
0Sacks taken6
1Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Rams: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.1949ers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against 49ers’s 54 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, 49ers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 15 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.8 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 17.8% in week 15 against 6.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.0% in week 15 against 20.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers6.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.80× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.0%, 9.5 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.8 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dee FordDEJullian TaylorDTJaquiski TarttFSC.J. BeathardQBJeff WilsonRBDaniel HelmTEJordan MatthewsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Mike PersonCNick MullensQBDante PettisWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at LA 46. 54-F.Warner for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:56 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at SF 48 · gained nothing · -8.83 EP · −31.2% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 91 yards from the SF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0572%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1072%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2056%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.2747%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.9650%
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Rams649ers0
Rams749ers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 10
Rams749ers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 7
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Rams 37 to the 49ers 13
2nd quarter50 plays
Rams1349ers3
Rams1449ers3
Touchdown2 plays
Rams1449ers9
Rams1449ers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 19
Rams2049ers10
Rams2149ers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 36 to the 49ers 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams2149ers16
Rams2149ers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams2149ers23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 48
Rams2149ers24
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
No good4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 24
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Rams 38
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 4
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 49
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams2749ers24
Rams2849ers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 32 to the 49ers 22
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 18 to midfield
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 6 to the 49ers 21
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 43 to the 49ers 48
Rams2849ers30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams2849ers31
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Rams 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams3149ers31
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Rams3149ers34
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7
Closing total
45.5
Rams moneyline
+274
49ers moneyline
-320
49ers closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 65 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Rams 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:08SF +12% win prob4-G.Zuerlein kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to SF 1. 13-R.James Jr. to LA 18 for 81 yards (33-N.Scott).
3rd · 14:56LA +11% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams (20-J.Ramsey) at SF 25. 31-D.Williams to SF 25 for no gain (60-D.Brunskill).
