2019 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2019 · Nissan Stadium
New Orleans SaintsWinner
38
Tennessee Titans
28
New Orleans Saints 38–28. Biggest swing: Q4 4:23, NO +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 4:23NO +17% win prob(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN 25 for 37 yards (81-J.Smith).
- Q2 · 2:34TEN +15% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 8:03TEN +14% win prob(8:03) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 14:07TEN +12% win prob(14:07) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 58 |
| Total yards | 380 | 397 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.17 (edge) | 0.05 |
| Success rate | 44% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 68% | 57% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.18 (edge) | 0.03 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | 0.07 |
| Third downs | 4/11 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Titans outgained Saints 397–380 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 28 | 5 | -1 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | NO 24 | 6 | 11 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 27 | 6 | 73 | 2:42 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NO | NO 43 | 5 | -5 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 30 | 4 | 70 | 1:11 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | NO | NO 30 | 14 | 45 | 6:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 11 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 8 | NO | NO 25 | 6 | 32 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 11 | 4 | -4 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 10 | NO | TEN 48 | 4 | 7 | 1:05 | Punt | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 12 | 7 | 14 | 3:59 | Punt | |
| 12 | NO | NO 39 | 2 | 61 | 0:11 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 9 | 8 | 18 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 14 | NO | NO 38 | 2 | 12 | 0:18 | End of half | |
| 15 | NO | NO 39 | 4 | 44 | 1:00 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 19 | 7 | 18 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 17 | NO | NO 30 | 10 | 70 | 4:00 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:43 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | NO | NO 48 | 7 | 52 | 3:07 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 23 | 9 | 24 | 3:47 | Punt | |
| 21 | NO | NO 9 | 4 | -8 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | NO 42 | 7 | 42 | 3:15 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | NO | NO 28 | 8 | 34 | 3:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | TEN | TEN 38 | 1 | 23 | 0:17 | Fumble | |
| 25 | NO | TEN 25 | 7 | 25 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 26 | TEN | TEN 25 | 6 | 34 | 0:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 27 | NO | NO 41 | 3 | 0 | 1:44 | End of game |
0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -3.5
- Closing total
- 49
- NO moneyline
- -178
- TEN moneyline
- +159
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 49; the game landed 66 — over by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 50°F, wind 4 mph
- Referee
- Jerome Boger
- Rest
- NO 6 days · TEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Mike Vrabel