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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 38 at Tennessee Titans 28. Final.
Saints -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
New Orleans Saints 38, Titans 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:23, 1st and 10, on K.Raymond — 16.9 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:23 · 1st and 10
K.Raymond
Saints
(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN 25 for 37 yards (81-J.Smith).
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
New Orleans Saints 38–28. Biggest swing: Q4 4:23, Saints +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.SmithTitansQ1 8:03(8:03) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.0pts
J.CookSaintsQ2 2:34(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 6 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Titans at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Saints174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN
Swing −16.9 for TitansExpected points −5.48 for TitansThe model had Titans 14 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:23NO +17% win prob(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN 25 for 37 yards (81-J.Smith).
2nd · 2:34TEN +15% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:03TEN +14% win prob(8:03) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:07TEN +12% win prob(14:07) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:36TEN +11% win prob(4:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:26NO +10% win prob(4:26) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 34-J.Hardee.
2nd · 3:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Kamara's 40-yard rushing touchdown with 14:07 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Saints: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Saints: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.07Titans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Saints 6, Titans 4.
NoteTitans outgained Saints 397-380 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's pass rate over expected turned over: −2.0 pts in week 15 against +9.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Titans7.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.6 pts, 5.5 points above their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.2 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 14-K.Raymond to NO 39 for 23 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (22-C.Gardner-Johnson), RECOVERED by NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 38. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TEN 25 for 37 yards (81-J.Smith).
Q4 4:23 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 38 · gained 23 · -5.48 EP · −26.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1356%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.4379%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0453%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.1358%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.18100%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8+0.2925%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 36
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Saints0Titans6
Saints0Titans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Saints 41
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Saints 45
Saints0Titans13
Saints0Titans14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Saints 49
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Titans 32
2nd quarter54 plays
Saints3Titans14
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 20
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 21
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 36
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Saints9Titans14
Saints10Titans14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 32
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Saints16Titans14
Saints17Titans14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Titans 40
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Titans 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Saints23Titans14
Saints24Titans14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Titans 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Saints24Titans20
Saints24Titans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Saints 36
Saints30Titans21
Saints31Titans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Titans 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 30
4th quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Saints 48
Punt5 plays
Saints31Titans27
Saints31Titans28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 7
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Titans 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Saints37Titans28
Saints38Titans28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Saints 41
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Saintscategory by categoryTitans
Saints0
Titans6
