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New York Giants 41 at Washington Commanders 35. Final.
Giants -1 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
New York Giants 41, Commanders 35 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 9:07, 3rd and 7, on S.Shepard — 27.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 9:07 · 3rd and 7
S.Shepard
Giants
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 40 for 23 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [90-M.Sweat].
Giants closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.
New York Giants 41–35. Biggest swing: OT 9:07, Giants +27.5% win probability on one snap.
27.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.TateGiantsQ4 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate pushed ob at WAS 45 for 16 yards (37-C.Sensabaugh). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
18.6pts
D.JonesCommandersQ4 0:02(:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle (30-T.Apke).
20.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Commanders at 7 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.46 expected points per snap, against Commanders at +0.15 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants178 of 189 plays carry both curves
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 40 for 23 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [90-M.Sweat].
Swing −27.5 for CommandersExpected points −2.61 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 9:07WAS +27% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 40 for 23 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [90-M.Sweat].
4th · 0:10WAS +19% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate pushed ob at WAS 45 for 16 yards (37-C.Sensabaugh). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:41WAS +16% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 15-S.Sims (25-C.Ballentine). PENALTY on NYG-25-C.Ballentine, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at NYG 3 - No Play.
1st · 6:58WAS +14% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 4:19WAS +11% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 82-K.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Smith's 3-yard touchdown catch with 4:19 left in overtime put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime4:19K.Smith·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Jonesfrom D.JonesLead never changed again+641–35
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants6–1Commanders
552Total yards361
8.0Yards per play5.4
52%Success rate43%
57%Third-down rate57%
3Red-zone touchdowns5
11Explosive plays7
24First downs23
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.46Giants: +0.46 expected points added per play
+0.15Commanders: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Giants: +0.55 expected points added per play
+0.36Commanders: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Giants: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.20Commanders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 69 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Commanders’s 67 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Giants 6, Commanders 5.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Commanders15.2%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 14.4% and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ross PierschbacherCFabian MoreauCBQuinton DunbarCBJosh Harvey-ClemonsILBColt McCoyQBJosh FergusonRBCaleb WilsonTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Josh NormanCB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Jones pass+27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 40 for 23 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [90-M.Sweat].
OT 9:07 · Giants · 3rd & 7 at NYG 37 · gained 23 · +2.61 EP · +27.5% win probability
176 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 99 yards from the WAS 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
45%
Yards
913
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64+0.5461%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2072%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5880%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Giants6Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 23
Giants7Commanders0
Drive ended3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 48
Giants7Commanders6
Giants7Commanders7
Touchdown2 plays
Giants14Commanders7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 31
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Giants 8
2nd quarter1 plays
Giants14Commanders13
Touchdown1 play
1st quarter2 plays
2nd quarter2 plays
Giants14Commanders14
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Giants20Commanders14
Giants21Commanders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 33
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 41
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 42
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 25
Giants27Commanders14
Giants28Commanders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Commanders 10
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 20
Giants28Commanders20
Giants28Commanders21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Giants 7
Giants34Commanders21
Giants35Commanders21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Commanders 9
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 34
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Giants35Commanders27
Giants35Commanders28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 1
No good7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 35
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 49
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerEight
Giants35Commanders34
Giants35Commanders35
Touchdown19 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Giants 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 45
Overtime13 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Giants41Commanders35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Commanders 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
