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Oakland Raiders 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chargers -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
Oakland Raiders 24, Chargers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:07, 3rd and 6, on H.Renfrow — 20.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:07 · 3rd and 6
H.Renfrow
Raiders
(11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.1
U 45 ✓
Chargers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Oakland Raiders 24–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:07, Raiders +20.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
P.RiversChargersQ2 2:02(2:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 11 - No Play.
8.3pts
D.CarrRaidersQ2 0:14(:14) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.4pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.1 for ChargersExpected points −6.13 for ChargersThe model had Raiders 21 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:07LAC +20% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14LAC +11% win prob(:14) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:02LAC +8% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 11 - No Play.
2nd · 1:03LAC +8% win prob(1:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard ran ob at LAC 32 for 10 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
1st · 9:00LAC +8% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 16-T.Williams ran ob at LAC 43 for 43 yards (26-C.Hayward).
2nd · 4:13LAC +8% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry to LV 43 for 17 yards (51-W.Compton). LV-27-T.Mullen was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Carr's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 0:14 left in the 2nd put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th8:34D.Carlson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+324–14
4th1:33M.Badgley·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+324–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Chargers17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.1%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 59.6% and 1.1 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Denzelle GoodT · Every snap100%63 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%63 snaps
16Tyrell WilliamsWR · Full-time87%55 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time81%51 snaps
72David SharpeT · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
33DeAndre WashingtonRB · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:07 · Raiders · 3rd & 6 at LV 44 · gained 56 · +6.13 EP · +18.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 83 yards from the LAC 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1083%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3286%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15+0.057%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0267%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0614%
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Raiders6Chargers0
Raiders7Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 44
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 21
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 24
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 41
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Raiders 24
Raiders7Chargers6
Raiders7Chargers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Raiders 1
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerSeven
Raiders13Chargers7
Raiders14Chargers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Raiders20Chargers7
Raiders21Chargers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 5
Raiders21Chargers13
Raiders21Chargers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Raiders 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 27
4th quarter43 plays
Raiders24Chargers14
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Chargers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 32 to midfield
Raiders24Chargers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Raiders 9
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -7.5
Closing total
45
Raiders moneyline
+274
Chargers moneyline
-321
Chargers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 41 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Anthony Lynn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 5:01
LAC +7% win prob
(5:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LAC 23 - No Play.
2nd · 8:16OAK +7% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor up the middle to LAC 38 for -1 yards (98-M.Crosby).
