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Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at New York Jets 16. Final.
Steelers -3 upsetU 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 16
New York Jets 16, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:09, 1st and 10, on D.Johnson — 14.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:09 · 1st and 10
D.Johnson
Steelers
(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 16–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:09, Steelers +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BashamJetsQ1 5:53(5:53) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short middle intended for 89-V.McDonald INTERCEPTED by 93-T.Basham at NYJ 34. 93-T.Basham to NYJ 35 for 1 yard (19-J.Smith-Schuster).
13.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ4 9:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges Aborted. 67-B.Finney FUMBLES at NYJ 44, recovered by PIT-6-D.Hodges at NYJ 46. 6-D.Hodges to NYJ 46 for no gain (96-H.Anderson).
14.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 32% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 4 of 15 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 14 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Steelers159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.6 for JetsExpected points −5.09 for JetsThe model had Jets 9 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:09NYJ +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:28PIT +14% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges Aborted. 67-B.Finney FUMBLES at NYJ 44, recovered by PIT-6-D.Hodges at NYJ 46. 6-D.Hodges to NYJ 46 for no gain (96-H.Anderson).
1st · 5:53PIT +13% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short middle intended for 89-V.McDonald INTERCEPTED by 93-T.Basham at NYJ 34. 93-T.Basham to NYJ 35 for 1 yard (19-J.Smith-Schuster).
2nd · 0:36PIT +13% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 42 for -7 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at NYJ 41.
4th · 0:44PIT +11% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 49, and recovers at 50. 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.
1st · 10:32NYJ +11% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-Ro.Anderson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Ficken's 37-yard field goal with 6:34 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
3rd6:34S.Ficken·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+310–13
4th3:15S.Ficken·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+310–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryJets
Steelers1–5Jets
260Total yards260
3.9Yards per play4.4
29%Success rate32%
21%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
14First downs12
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Steelers: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.27Jets: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Jets 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets16.7%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.5 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of -1.7 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
46 dressed · 7 inactive
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%67 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%67 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%67 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Full-time97%65 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time84%56 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Edwards punts−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to PIT 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
Q4 1:39 · Jets · 4th & 12 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · -1.13 EP · −13.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
31%
Yards
519
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1171%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0559%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.1929%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.7314%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4350%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.900%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Steelers0Jets6
Steelers0Jets7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Steelers 23
Drive ended2 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 35
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Jets 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Steelers 44
2nd quarter52 plays
Steelers0Jets10
Field goal2 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Jets 19
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 23
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 44
Steelers3Jets10
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Jets 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers9Jets10
Steelers10Jets10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 45
Steelers10Jets13
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Steelers 18
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Jets 40
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Jets 29
Steelers10Jets16
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Steelers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Jets 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
