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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
CardinalsArizona24
BY 7final margin
RamsLos Angeles31
Arizona Cardinals 24 at Los Angeles Rams 31. Final.
Rams -7 pushO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Los Angeles Rams 31, Cardinals 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:37, 3rd and 4, on T.Higbee — 15.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:37 · 3rd and 4
T.Higbee
Rams
(13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3
Rams closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Los Angeles Rams 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 13:37, Rams +15.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ2 5:33(5:33) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 10, RECOVERED by LA-24-T.Rapp at ARI 8. 24-T.Rapp to ARI 8 for no gain (41-K.Drake).
10.8pts
D.ByrdCardinalsQ3 4:47(4:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 5 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.24 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Cardinals at 5 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cardinals185 of 196 plays carry both curves
(13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.3 for RamsExpected points +2.41 for RamsThe model had Cardinals 5 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:37LA +15% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:47LA +11% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:33ARI +11% win prob(5:33) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 10, RECOVERED by LA-24-T.Rapp at ARI 8. 24-T.Rapp to ARI 8 for no gain (41-K.Drake).
3rd · 13:28ARI +9% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams (48-T.Howard) at LA 11. 31-D.Williams to LA 11 for no gain (11-L.Fitzgerald).
1st · 4:45ARI +7% win prob(4:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-N.Scott. 33-N.Scott left end to LA 23 for 6 yards (42-D.Gardeck, 49-K.Fitts).
2nd · 2:32ARI +7% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 43, RECOVERED by LA-58-C.Littleton at LA 41. 58-C.Littleton to LA 41 for no gain (41-K.Drake).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Higbee's 4-yard touchdown catch with 13:37 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:17G.Zuerlein·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.10Rams: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Cardinals: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.32Rams: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Cardinals: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Rams’s 78 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 2.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 16.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.2% in week 16 against 68.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Rams2.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.3%, 11.9 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.6 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74D.J. HumphriesOT · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Justin MurrayOT · Every snap100%68 snaps
53A.Q. ShipleyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Every snap99%67 snaps
41Kenyan DrakeRB · Full-time96%65 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Full-time93%63 snaps
64J.R. SweezyG · Full-time87%59 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time87%59 snaps
67Justin PughG · Full-time82%56 snaps
14Damiere ByrdWR · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
82Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational44%30 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Rotational34%23 snaps
12Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational32%22 snaps
7Brett HundleyQB · Situational7%5 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Situational6%4 snaps
89Andy IsabellaWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Andre ChachereDBLamont GaillardGVontarrius DoraLBDeionte ThompsonSJoshua MilesTCharles ClayTEKeeSean JohnsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:33) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 10, RECOVERED by LA-24-T.Rapp at ARI 8. 24-T.Rapp to ARI 8 for no gain (41-K.Drake).
Q2 5:33 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 16 · gained nothing · -5.54 EP · −14.8% win probability
183 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 88 yards from the ARI 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
817
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2268%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31-0.0345%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.1783%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.3553%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12-0.1883%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Cardinals0Rams3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 25
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 43
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, four linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and four backs
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 17
Cardinals6Rams3
Cardinals7Rams3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Cardinals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 10
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter62 plays
Cardinals7Rams9
Cardinals7Rams10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 3
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 40
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Cardinals7Rams16
Cardinals7Rams17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Rams 39
No good8 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals10Rams17
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Rams 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 33
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Cardinals 47
Cardinals16Rams17
Cardinals17Rams17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Rams 2
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 14
4th quarter53 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, five linebackers and two backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cardinals17Rams23
Cardinals17Rams24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 4
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Rams 37
Cardinals17Rams30
Cardinals17Rams31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Cardinals 11
Cardinals23Rams31
Cardinals24Rams31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 1
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 44
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
