2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -1 upsetO 48 ✓Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 28–22. Biggest swing: OT 10:00, ATL +53% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 10:00ATL — TB TB ball · 1st & 10TB 53%

(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 10:00ATL +53% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:21ATL +33% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:47TB +22% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at TB 38 for 21 yards (24-D.Stewart).
Q4 · 0:29ATL +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 15 for no gain (36-M.Stewart).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	86	47
Total yards	374 (edge)	331
Yards per play	4.3	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	42% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	67%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	7/18 (edge)	1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	9	65	4:27	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 27	2	0	0:15	Fumble
3	ATL	TB 29	7	20	3:23	Turnover on downs
4	TB	TB 25	6	44	2:21	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 39	4	2	1:33	Punt
6	TB	TB 8	4	3	0:58	Punt
7	ATL	TB 41	4	8	1:25	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 33	10	77	5:15	Touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 25	14	40	5:03	Turnover on downs
10	TB	TB 25	3	0	0:19	Interception
11	ATL	TB 19	5	9	1:54	Defensive touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	10	48	2:09	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 24	7	78	0:47	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 5	2	0	0:11	End of half
15	TB	TB 24	7	50	3:35	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	ATL 34	8	28	2:48	Punt
17	TB	TB 12	8	49	4:16	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 24	13	57	7:09	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 20	4	4	2:26	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 38	9	37	3:19	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 25	8	26	3:26	Punt
22	ATL	ATL 20	14	60	3:01	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1
Closing total: 48
ATL moneyline: +109
TB moneyline: -120

Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 50 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ATL 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.