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2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta28
BY 6final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay22
Atlanta Falcons 28 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22. Final.
Buccaneers -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Atlanta Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 10:00, 1st and 10, on D.Jones — 52.7 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 10:00 · 1st and 10
D.Jones
Falcons
(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48 ✓
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 28–22. Biggest swing: OT 10:00, Falcons +52.7% win probability on one snap.
52.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.RyanBuccaneersQ2 3:21(3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
33.4pts
J.HardyFalconsQ4 0:47(:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at TB 38 for 21 yards (24-D.Stewart).
22.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 18 on third down, against Buccaneers at 1 of 8 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −52.7 for BuccaneersExpected points −8.15 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 10:00ATL +53% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:21ATL +33% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:47TB +22% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at TB 38 for 21 yards (24-D.Stewart).
4th · 0:29ATL +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 15 for no gain (36-M.Stewart).
2nd · 2:23TB +13% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to TB 45 for 29 yards (39-A.Adams; 35-J.Dean).
4th · 12:17ATL +13% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 24-D.Freeman (92-W.Gholston).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Jones's 27-yard touchdown with 10:00 left in overtime put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Falcons ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.29Buccaneers: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Falcons: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 86 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 47 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 7, Buccaneers 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 80.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Buccaneers24.1%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 50.0 points above their season mean of 50.0% and 1.5 times their own 33.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%89 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%89 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%89 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%89 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%89 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Full-time96%85 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time82%73 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Heavy rotation75%67 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation72%64 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation70%62 snaps
24Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation61%54 snaps
80Luke StockerTE · Rotational42%37 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational20%18 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Situational20%18 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational16%14 snaps
14Justin HardyWR · Situational13%12 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational11%10 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational10%9 snaps
38Kenjon BarnerRB · Situational6%5 snaps
73Matt GonoT · Situational4%4 snaps
74Ty SambrailoT · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Adrian ClaybornDESean HarlowGJamon BrownGAhmad ThomasILBChris CooperSSJohn WetzelTBrandon PowellWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Winston pass−53% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 10:00 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 25 · gained nothing · -8.15 EP · −52.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 76 yards from the TB 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
40%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2678%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2055%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2055%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1546%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3342%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Falcons6Buccaneers0
Falcons7Buccaneers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Falcons10Buccaneers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 9
No good6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 31
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Falcons 41
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 11
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Falcons10Buccaneers6
Falcons10Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Falcons 1
Falcons13Buccaneers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Falcons13Buccaneers13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 9
Falcons13Buccaneers14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Falcons16Buccaneers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Falcons16Buccaneers20
Falcons16Buccaneers22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Falcons 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
No good7 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Falcons 25
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Buccaneers 38
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Falcons 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Buccaneers 40
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 25
Falcons19Buccaneers22
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Buccaneers 25
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Falcons22Buccaneers22
Field goal19 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Buccaneers 15
Overtime3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Falcons28Buccaneers22
Touchdown2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -1
Closing total
48
Falcons moneyline
+109
Buccaneers moneyline
-120
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 50 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Bruce Arians
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:28TB +11% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman to ATL 24 for 31 yards (37-Ri.Allen). ATL-20-K.Sheffield was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 5:14ATL +11% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 37-Ri.Allen at TB 46. 37-Ri.Allen to TB 19 for 27 yards (27-R.Jones).
