2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Chicago BearsWinner
21
Minnesota Vikings
19
Chicago Bears 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:36, MIN +37% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 2:36MIN +37% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
- Q4 · 6:25CHI +29% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo to CHI 23 for no gain (62-T.Larsen).
- Q4 · 0:12MIN +15% win prob(:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
- Q1 · 14:22CHI +14% win prob(14:22) 4-S.Mannion FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 22, RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at CHI 23. 98-B.Nichols to CHI 23 for no gain (4-S.Mannion).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bears | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 75 | 47 |
| Total yards | 337 (edge) | 300 |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.03 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Success rate | 47% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 45% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.05 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.00 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Third downs | 7/16 | 4/9 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 25 | 3 | 59 | 0:45 | Fumble | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 23 | 12 | 69 | 6:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 25 | 4 | 12 | 1:24 | Interception | |
| 4 | CHI | MIN 39 | 10 | 24 | 5:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 25 | 15 | 56 | 6:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 25 | 8 | 7 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 1 | 1 | -1 | 0:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 33 | 10 | 51 | 4:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 25 | 7 | 55 | 1:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | CHI | CHI 25 | 11 | 75 | 5:11 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 12 | CHI | CHI 24 | 10 | 33 | 4:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | MIN | CHI 43 | 9 | 43 | 3:47 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | CHI | CHI 25 | 5 | 9 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIN | MIN 20 | 9 | 60 | 4:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | CHI | CHI 25 | 6 | -2 | 2:34 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 17 | MIN | CHI 23 | 4 | 7 | 1:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | CHI | CHI 25 | 16 | 71 | 4:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 29 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | Interception |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- CHI -5.5
- Closing total
- 36.5
- CHI moneyline
- -230
- MIN moneyline
- +203
Bears closed -5.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 40 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- U.S. Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · sportturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- John Hussey
- Rest
- CHI 7 days · MIN 6 days
- Coaches
- Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.