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2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago21
BY 2final margin
VikingsMinnesota19
Chicago Bears 21 at Minnesota Vikings 19. Final.
Bears -5.5 no coverO 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Chicago Bears 21, Vikings 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:36, 4th and 9, on R.Ridley — 36.6 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:36 · 4th and 9
R.Ridley
Bears
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
36.6
Dome
Bears closed -5.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:36, Bears +36.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.TrubiskyVikingsQ4 6:25(6:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo to CHI 23 for no gain (62-T.Larsen).
29.5pts
E.PineiroBearsQ4 0:12(:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
14.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — -0.05 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
Swing −36.6 for VikingsExpected points −4.43 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 4 points higher than the market did.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:36MIN +37% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
4th · 6:25CHI +29% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 21 for -8 yards (95-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (95-I.Odenigbo), RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at CHI 23. 95-I.Odenigbo to CHI 23 for no gain (62-T.Larsen).
4th · 0:12MIN +15% win prob(:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
1st · 14:22CHI +14% win prob(14:22) 4-S.Mannion FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 22, RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at CHI 23. 98-B.Nichols to CHI 23 for no gain (4-S.Mannion).
4th · 0:04CHI +12% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 4-S.Mannion pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at CHI 10. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 24 for 14 yards (81-O.Johnson).
4th · 0:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
E.Pineiro's 22-yard field goal with 0:12 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:44E.Pineiro·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–0
1st0:48E.Pineiro·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+36–0
2nd9:21D.Bailey·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+36–3
2nd6:11N.Kwiatkoski·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+28–3
2nd1:56E.Pineiro·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+311–3
2nd0:02D.Bailey·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+311–6
4th8:59D.Bailey·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+318–16
4th4:57D.Bailey·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+318–19
4th0:12E.Pineiro·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+321–19
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears5–3Vikings
337Total yards300
4.5Yards per play6.4
47%Success rate38%
44%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
23First downs13
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers3
The read
Bears ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Bears: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Bears: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 75 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Vikings’s 47 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Vikings 6.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, −20.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Vikings16.7%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.9 pts, 12.2 points below their season mean of -8.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Cody WhitehairOG · Every snap100%75 snaps
73Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%75 snaps
68James DanielsC · Every snap100%75 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%75 snaps
62Ted LarsenC · Every snap100%75 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time96%72 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Full-time87%65 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation65%49 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational44%33 snaps
88Riley RidleyWR · Rotational41%31 snaps
43Eric SaubertTE · Rotational39%29 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
49Jesper HorstedTE · Situational20%15 snaps
64Alex BarsT · Situational12%9 snaps
35Ryan NallRB · Situational5%4 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael JosephDBAkiem HicksDTEddie GoldmanNTRashaad CowardOTBobby MassieTBradley SowellTETaylor GabrielWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Corey LevinGChase DanielQB
Minnesota Vikings
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 9 never used
76Aviante CollinsT · Every snap100%49 snaps
69Rashod HillT · Every snap100%49 snaps
4Sean MannionQB · Every snap100%49 snaps
15Alexander HollinsWR · Full-time98%48 snaps
11Laquon TreadwellWR · Full-time86%42 snaps
81Bisi JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation73%36 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation71%35 snaps
74Oli UdohT · Heavy rotation63%31 snaps
73Dru SamiaG · Heavy rotation63%31 snaps
78Dakota DozierG · Heavy rotation63%31 snaps
23Mike BooneRB · Heavy rotation57%28 snaps
84Irv SmithTE · Rotational45%22 snaps
31Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational39%19 snaps
65Pat ElfleinG · Rotational37%18 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Rotational37%18 snaps
64Josh KlineG · Rotational37%18 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational29%14 snaps
82Kyle RudolphTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Eric KendricksMLBShamar StephenNTAnthony BarrOLBDalvin CookRBAlexander MattisonRBBrian O'NeillTRiley ReiffT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+32% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
Q4 2:36 · Bears · 4th & 9 at CHI 49 · gained 32 · +4.43 EP · +31.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0679%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0952%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1115%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0564%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1843%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.270%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.420%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 16
Bears3Vikings0
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Vikings 8
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 37
Bears6Vikings0
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Bears6Vikings3
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Bears 19
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 49
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Bears8Vikings3
Bears11Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Vikings 14
Bears11Vikings6
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 20
3rd quarter35 plays
Bears17Vikings6
Bears18Vikings6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 14
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 7
4th quarter52 plays
Bears18Vikings12
Bears18Vikings13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bears18Vikings16
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Bears 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 37
Bears18Vikings19
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears21Vikings19
Field goal20 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
