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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland23
BY 10final margin
BengalsCincinnati33
Cleveland Browns 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 33. Final.
Browns -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals 33, Browns 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:38, 3rd and 10, on Darius Phillips — 13.7 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 44 ✓
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 33–23. Biggest swing: Q1 5:38, Bengals +13.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:38 · 3rd and 10
Darius Phillips
Bengals
(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jarvis LandryBrownsQ2 2:00(2:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.4pts
Tyler EifertBengalsQ3 12:18(12:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert to CLE 19 for 25 yards (94-B.Cox; 29-S.Redwine).
10.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Bengals won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 13 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.00 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.20 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Browns156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).
Swing +13.7 for BengalsExpected points +5.35 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 15 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:38CLE +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).
2nd · 2:00CIN +11% win prob(2:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:18CIN +11% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert to CLE 19 for 25 yards (94-B.Cox; 29-S.Redwine).
4th · 7:23CIN +10% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:53CLE +9% win prob(6:53) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 11-J.Ross III INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE -2. Touchback.
1st · 2:56CIN +9% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge to CLE 39 for 19 yards (23-B.Webb).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 4:48 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th2:00Randy Bullock·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+323–33
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Browns1–7Bengals
313Total yards366
5.9Yards per play5.6
40%Success rate45%
31%Third-down rate64%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays7
14First downs21
6Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Browns: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Browns: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Browns: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.00Bengals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 53 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Bengals 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.7 pts in week 16 against −5.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bengals21.6%
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 14.1% and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).
Q1 5:38 · Browns · 3rd & 10 at CLE 20 · gained nothing · -5.35 EP · −13.0% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 81 yards from the CLE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1743%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.3442%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.3081%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4147%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8-0.3275%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.4657%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Browns6Bengals0
Browns7Bengals0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Bengals 46
Browns7Bengals6
Browns7Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Browns 15
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Browns7Bengals13
Touchdown5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 39
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Browns7Bengals19
Browns7Bengals20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Browns 5
Browns10Bengals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Bengals 14
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 35
Browns16Bengals20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 44
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 4 to the Bengals 8
3rd quarter31 plays
Browns16Bengals23
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 19
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Browns 47
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Browns 35
4th quarter41 plays
Browns16Bengals29
Browns16Bengals30
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Browns 2
Browns22Bengals30
Browns23Bengals30
Touchdown17 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 5
Browns23Bengals33
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Browns 25
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Bengals 44
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Browns6
Bengals0
