2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CLE -2.5 upsetO 44 ✓Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 33–23. Biggest swing: Q1 5:38, CLE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:38CLE — CIN CLE ball · 3rd & 10CLE 54%

(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:38CLE +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Phillips at CLE 31. 24-D.Phillips to CLE 3 for 28 yards (77-W.Teller).
Q2 · 2:00CIN +11% win prob(2:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:18CIN +11% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert to CLE 19 for 25 yards (94-B.Cox; 29-S.Redwine).
Q4 · 7:23CIN +10% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	53	65
Total yards	313	366 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	40%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.00 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	14	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 44	5	56	1:28	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 21	9	79	3:39	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	5	-1	1:04	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 15	6	25	1:44	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 20	3	0	1:37	Interception
6	CIN	CLE 3	4	3	0:43	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 25	8	18	3:57	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 34	13	66	5:42	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 14	8	62	3:13	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 25	8	9	3:09	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 19	6	76	1:52	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 23	5	-3	0:26	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 29	4	5	0:29	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 4	2	4	0:57	End of half
15	CIN	CIN 25	11	58	5:56	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 25	4	-6	1:31	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 49	2	4	0:49	Interception
18	CLE	CLE 20	4	-1	2:12	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 26	10	66	5:16	Touchdown
20	CLE	CLE 25	15	75	7:00	Touchdown
21	CIN	CIN 17	10	55	5:21	Turnover on downs
22	CLE	CLE 27	6	29	0:56	Interception
23	CIN	CIN 15	2	0	0:59	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 44
CLE moneyline: -137
CIN moneyline: +124

Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 56 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Freddie Kitchens vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.