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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Green Bay Packers 23, Lions 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 8:03, 2nd and 17, on Blake Martinez — 23.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Packers closed -13.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:03, Packers +23.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:03 · 2nd and 17
Blake Martinez
Packers
(8:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Lacy INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Martinez at GB 23. 50-B.Martinez ran ob at GB 45 for 22 yards (83-J.James). PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 45.
23.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Allen LazardPackersQ4 5:24(5:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
22.7pts
Allen LazardPackersQ4 2:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard to GB 40 for 13 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). GB-13-A.Lazard was injured during the play.
15.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 8 of 19 on third down, against Lions at 3 of 12 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 29.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers184 of 195 plays carry both curves
(8:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Lacy INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Martinez at GB 23. 50-B.Martinez ran ob at GB 45 for 22 yards (83-J.James). PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 15
Swing −23.4 for LionsExpected points −5.29 for LionsThe model had Lions 8 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:03GB +23% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Lacy INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Martinez at GB 23. 50-B.Martinez ran ob at GB 45 for 22 yards (83-J.James). PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 45.
4th · 5:24DET +23% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:44DET +15% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard to GB 40 for 13 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). GB-13-A.Lazard was injured during the play.
3rd · 3:16DET +13% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:09GB +11% win prob(11:09) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
4th · 5:57DET +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:07David Blough·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Danny Amendolafrom Danny Amendola+70–7
4th0:03Mason Crosby·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers4–2Lions
433Total yards305
5.1Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate39%
42%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
24First downs14
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.14Lions: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.36Lions: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Packers: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 85 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Lions’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.1 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions10.5%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -3.2 pts, 6.2 points below their season mean of 3.0 pts and 1.1 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 5:24 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at DET 28 · gained 28 · +3.87 EP · +22.6% win probability
182 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 95 yards from the GB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
38%
Yards
737
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1773%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3360%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3550%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2333%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3950%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4360%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 22
Packers0Lions6
Packers0Lions7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Packers 19
Punt14 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Lions 25
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 15
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Packers 39
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Lions 43
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 24
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Lions 49
Packers0Lions13
Packers0Lions14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Packers 1
Packers3Lions14
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Lions 14
Packers3Lions17
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 24
3rd quarter40 plays
No good11 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Lions 33
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Packers 42
Packers9Lions17
Packers10Lions17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Lions 20
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 38
4th quarter65 plays
Packers13Lions17
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Lions 22
Packers13Lions20
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 37
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Packers 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers19Lions20
Packers20Lions20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 28
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers23Lions20
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Lions 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -13.5
Closing total
44
Packers moneyline
-656
Lions moneyline
+508
Packers closed -13.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44; the game landed 43 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Packers 6 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Patricia
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-94-A.Bryant was injured during the play.
4th · 0:45DET +11% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to DET 20 for 31 yards (25-W.Harris) [95-R.Okwara].
4th · 1:49GB +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 16-J.Kumerow INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 26. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 26 for no gain (16-J.Kumerow).
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers0
Lions6
