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2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Ford Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

23

Detroit Lions

20

GB -13.5 no coverU 44 ✓Dome

Green Bay Packers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:03, GB +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 8:03GB — DET DET ball · 2nd & 17DET 81%

(8:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Lacy INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Martinez at GB 23. 50-B.Martinez ran ob at GB 45 for 22 yards (83-J.James). PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 15

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:03GB +23% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Lacy INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Martinez at GB 23. 50-B.Martinez ran ob at GB 45 for 22 yards (83-J.James). PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 45.
  2. Q4 · 5:24DET +23% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q4 · 2:44DET +15% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard to GB 40 for 13 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). GB-13-A.Lazard was injured during the play.
  4. Q3 · 3:16DET +13% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersLions
Offensive plays8556
Total yards433 (edge)305
Yards per play5.15.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.14
Success rate40% (edge)39%
Dropback rate67%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.16 (edge)
Third downs8/19 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)14
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 256161:44Punt
2GBGB 20421:03Punt
3DETDET 279834:14Touchdown
4GBGB 4312325:32Punt
5DETDET 7481:22Punt
6GBGB 37793:20Punt
7DETDET 105102:09Punt
8GBGB 345171:31Punt
9DETDET 2012835:52Touchdown
10GBGB 1011762:53Turnover on downs
11DETDET 255510:20Turnover on downs
12GBGB 2910433:56Turnover on downs
13DETDET 416172:04Punt
14GBGB 513955:50Touchdown
15DETDET 25511:31Punt
16GBGB 2712514:32Turnover on downs
17DETDET 25530:59Turnover on downs
18GBGB 23500:32Punt
19DETDET 44552:44Interception
20GBDET 408402:33Touchdown
21DETDET 256231:45Punt
22GBGB 266141:54Interception
23DETDET 26450:20Punt
24GBGB 178541:20Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -13.5
Closing total
44
GB moneyline
-656
DET moneyline
+508

Packers closed -13.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 43 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
GB 6 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Patricia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.