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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis20
BY 18final margin
JaguarsJacksonville38
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 38. Final.
Colts -5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars 38, Colts 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 9:41, 3rd and 12, on J.Brissett — 13.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:41 · 3rd and 12
J.Brissett
Jaguars
(9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 41.5 ✓
Colts closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 9:41, Jaguars +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.ColeJaguarsQ2 6:17(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 84-K.Cole to IND 14 for 45 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
11.2pts
D.LeonardColtsQ2 1:35(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at JAX 37. 53-D.Leonard to JAX 37 for no gain (23-R.Armstead). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
11.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.7 for JaguarsExpected points +5.10 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 10 points higher than the market did.play 138
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:41IND +14% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:35IND +12% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at JAX 37. 53-D.Leonard to JAX 37 for no gain (23-R.Armstead). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 6:17JAX +11% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 84-K.Cole to IND 14 for 45 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
3rd · 9:22JAX +11% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr.. PENALTY on IND-34-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at IND 29 - No Play.
2nd · 5:49JAX +11% win prob(5:49) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 84-K.Cole for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:30IND +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Armstead's 3-yard touchdown catch with 8:33 left in the 3rd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:08C.McLaughlin·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st6:22J.Lambo·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+33–3
Jaguars ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Colts: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.14Jaguars: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Colts: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.26Jaguars: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Colts: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.14Jaguars: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 55 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jaguars20.0%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.3 pts, 11.4 points above their season mean of 0.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew II+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 84-K.Cole to IND 14 for 45 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
Q2 6:17 · Jaguars · 3rd & 8 at JAX 41 · gained 45 · +3.84 EP · +16.5% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 90 yards from the JAX 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
47%
Yards
630
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1779%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1455%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0436%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2733%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.1983%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts3Jaguars0
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 1
Colts3Jaguars3
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts9Jaguars3
Colts10Jaguars3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Jaguars 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Colts10Jaguars6
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Colts 35
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts10Jaguars12
Colts10Jaguars13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Colts 14
Colts16Jaguars13
Colts17Jaguars13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Jaguars 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 35
Colts20Jaguars13
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Jaguars 30
Colts20Jaguars16
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Colts 38
3rd quarter33 plays
Colts20Jaguars22
Colts20Jaguars24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Colts 3
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 37
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 45
4th quarter38 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Colts20Jaguars30
Touchdown3 plays
Colts20Jaguars31
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 45
Colts20Jaguars37
Colts20Jaguars38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 18
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -5
Closing total
41.5
Colts moneyline
-232
Jaguars moneyline
+204
Colts closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 58 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Colts 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Doug Marrone
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(11:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 33 for -7 yards (93-J.Sheard).
4th · 7:55IND +9% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 40 for -5 yards (90-T.Bryan). FUMBLES (90-T.Bryan) [90-T.Bryan], RECOVERED by JAX-94-D.Smoot at IND 34. 94-D.Smoot to IND 34 for no gain (21-N.Hines).
1st · 7:43JAX +9% win prob(7:43) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 23-R.Armstead to IND 6 for 24 yards (35-P.Desir).
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts3
Jaguars0
