2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

IND -5 upsetO 41.5 ✓Colts closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 9:41, IND +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:41IND — JAX IND ball · 3rd & 12JAX 73%

(9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:41IND +14% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:35IND +12% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at JAX 37. 53-D.Leonard to JAX 37 for no gain (23-R.Armstead). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 · 6:17JAX +11% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 84-K.Cole to IND 14 for 45 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
Q3 · 9:22JAX +11% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr.. PENALTY on IND-34-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at IND 29 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	55	64
Total yards	275	358 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	44%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	4/12	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	12	83	5:54	Turnover on downs
2	JAX	IND 44	8	42	2:47	Turnover on downs
3	IND	IND 21	14	62	5:38	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	10	40	3:41	Turnover on downs
5	IND	IND 25	6	24	2:19	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 10	8	90	3:59	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 45	8	55	3:31	Touchdown
8	JAX	JAX 25	4	10	0:45	Interception
9	IND	JAX 37	4	5	0:47	Turnover on downs
10	JAX	JAX 27	8	35	0:39	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 20	13	62	6:33	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	7	8	2:22	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 18	7	26	4:03	Punt
14	IND	IND 25	5	26	2:18	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 11	8	9	4:14	Punt
16	IND	IND 5	3	3	1:02	Defensive touchdown
17	IND	IND 25	5	9	1:43	Fumble
18	JAX	IND 34	7	34	3:03	Touchdown
19	IND	IND 20	5	0	0:33	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	IND 20	6	10	4:09	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -5
Closing total: 41.5
IND moneyline: -232
JAX moneyline: +204

Colts closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 58 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.