2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers
21
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
31
Kansas City Chiefs 31–21. Biggest swing: Q3 14:55, LAC +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at KC 36. 43-M.Davis to KC 21 for 15 yards (71-M.Schwartz).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 14:55LAC +15% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at KC 36. 43-M.Davis to KC 21 for 15 yards (71-M.Schwartz).
- Q3 · 13:14KC +13% win prob1-T.Long kicks 69 yards from LAC 35 to KC -4. 17-M.Hardman for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 0:35LAC +12% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC -2. Touchback (81-M.Williams).
- Q3 · 6:41KC +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 46 |
| Total yards | 366 (edge) | 338 |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 7.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.13 | 0.20 (edge) |
| Success rate | 47% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 68% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.18 (edge) | -0.03 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 | 0.54 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/15 | 7/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Chargers outgained Chiefs 366–338 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 20 | 9 | 26 | 5:19 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 16 | 15 | 52 | 8:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 26 | 13 | 74 | 4:45 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 45 | 6:19 | Punt | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 20 | 4 | 14 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 6 | KC | KC 43 | 5 | 57 | 1:29 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 25 | 10 | 54 | 1:48 | Interception | |
| 8 | KC | KC 20 | 1 | 6 | 0:28 | End of half | |
| 9 | KC | KC 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:20 | Interception | |
| 10 | LAC | KC 21 | 4 | 21 | 1:26 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | KC | — | 2 | 0 | 0:16 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 12 | LAC | LAC 14 | 12 | 28 | 6:17 | Punt | |
| 13 | KC | KC 16 | 2 | 84 | 0:15 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | LAC | LAC 23 | 11 | 57 | 6:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | KC | KC 5 | 6 | 22 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 16 | LAC | LAC 14 | 15 | 86 | 7:11 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | KC | KC 23 | 10 | 72 | 2:46 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 26 | 8 | 6 | 1:38 | Interception | |
| 19 | KC | LAC 44 | 2 | 0 | 0:59 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -10
- Closing total
- 46
- LAC moneyline
- +325
- KC moneyline
- -389
Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 46; the game landed 52 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 40°F, wind 16 mph
- Referee
- Walt Anderson
- Rest
- LAC 7 days · KC 7 days
- Coaches
- Anthony Lynn vs Andy Reid
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.