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Los Angeles Chargers 21 at Kansas City Chiefs 31. Final.
Chiefs -10 pushO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Chargers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:55, 2nd and 10, on M.Davis — 14.9 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:55 · 2nd and 10
M.Davis
Chargers
(14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at KC 36. 43-M.Davis to KC 21 for 15 yards (71-M.Schwartz).
Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–21. Biggest swing: Q3 14:55, Chargers +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.MathieuChiefsQ2 0:35(:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC -2. Touchback (81-M.Williams).
11.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ3 13:141-T.Long kicks 69 yards from LAC 35 to KC -4. 17-M.Hardman for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.54 expected points per carry, against Chargers at +0.02 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 8 of 15 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at KC 36. 43-M.Davis to KC 21 for 15 yards (71-M.Schwartz).
Swing −14.9 for ChiefsExpected points −5.40 for ChiefsThe model had Chargers 16 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:55LAC +15% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at KC 36. 43-M.Davis to KC 21 for 15 yards (71-M.Schwartz).
3rd · 13:14KC +13% win prob1-T.Long kicks 69 yards from LAC 35 to KC -4. 17-M.Hardman for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:35LAC +12% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC -2. Touchback (81-M.Williams).
3rd · 6:41KC +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:07KC +9% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman to LAC 24 for 30 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
2nd · 2:23KC +9% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Hardman's 104-yard return touchdown with 13:14 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:33H.Butker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–3
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.20Chiefs: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Chargers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.54Chiefs: +0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 74 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 46 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Chiefs 4.
NoteChargers outgained Chiefs 366-338 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 11 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 17.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.3 points.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +2.1 pts, is past their previous low of +3.5 pts in week 14 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
46 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Chiefs16.0%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 43.3 points above their season mean of 31.7% and 1.6 times their own 27.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Long kicks+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
1-T.Long kicks 69 yards from LAC 35 to KC -4. 17-M.Hardman for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:14 · Chiefs · Kickoff at LAC 35 · gained nothing · +5.47 EP · +22.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 86 yards from the LAC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
44%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.2170%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.2562%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1460%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1043%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4817%
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 46
Chargers0Chiefs3
Field goal17 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chargers 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Chargers6Chiefs3
Chargers7Chiefs3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chiefs 12
Punt14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chargers7Chiefs9
Chargers7Chiefs10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Chargers 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 26
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Chargers13Chiefs10
Chargers14Chiefs10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 5
Chargers14Chiefs16
Chargers14Chiefs17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers14Chiefs23
Chargers14Chiefs24
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 23
Chargers20Chiefs24
Chargers21Chiefs24
Touchdown20 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chiefs 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chargers21Chiefs30
Chargers21Chiefs31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chargers 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 39
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
