2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Gillette Stadium
Miami DolphinsWinner
27
New England Patriots
24
Miami Dolphins 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, NE +34% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:29NE +34% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 3:59NE +22% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.
- Q2 · 10:41MIA +20% win prob(10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 0:02MIA +15% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 37 for no gain. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-12-T.Brady at NE 37. 12-T.Brady to NE 37 for no gain. Lateral to 28-J.White to NE 35 for -2 yards. Lateral to 62-J.Thuney to NE 36 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-12-T.Brady at NE 37. 12-T.Brady to NE 37 for no gain. Lateral to 84-B.Watson to NE 36 for -1 yards. Lateral to 11-J.Edelman to NE 35 for -1 yards. Lateral to 62-J.Thuney to NE 37 for 2 yards. Lateral to 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 33 for -4 yards. Lateral to 28-J.White to NE 35 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (55-J.Baker), RECOVERED by MIA-49-S.Eguavoen at NE 38. NE 11-Edelman 100th rec of season, 2nd career 100-rec season (2013). Patriots 225 pts allowed this season, new franchise record (237 in 2006).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 68 | 57 |
| Total yards | 389 (edge) | 352 |
| Yards per play | 5.7 | 6.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.14 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Success rate | 49% (edge) | 42% |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | 0.01 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.22 | 0.07 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/12 (edge) | 3/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 30 | 4:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | NE | NE 45 | 4 | 5 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 11 | 12 | 80 | 6:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | NE | NE 25 | 7 | 34 | 2:27 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 4 | 7 | 28 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 31 | 2 | 0 | 0:14 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 7 | NE | NE 25 | 13 | 58 | 4:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 25 | 6 | 19 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 9 | NE | NE 18 | 6 | 67 | 2:17 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 20 | 5 | 0 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 11 | NE | NE 25 | 2 | 5 | 0:57 | End of half | |
| 12 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:56 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 17 | 10 | 88 | 5:22 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NE | NE 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:16 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 25 | 9 | 22 | 4:22 | Punt | |
| 16 | NE | NE 10 | 6 | 23 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 37 | 9 | 45 | 3:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | NE | NE 40 | 10 | 65 | 4:36 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 25 | 15 | 77 | 3:29 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | NE | NE 25 | 6 | 12 | 0:24 | Fumble |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -17.5
- Closing total
- 46
- MIA moneyline
- +781
- NE moneyline
- -1117
Patriots closed -17.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 51 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 43°F, wind 2 mph
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
- Coaches
- Brian Flores vs Bill Belichick
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.