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Miami Dolphins 27 at New England Patriots 24. Final.
Patriots -17.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Miami Dolphins 27, Patriots 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:29, 1st and 5, on M.Gesicki — 34.1 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:29 · 1st and 5
M.Gesicki
Dolphins
(:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
34.1
O 46 ✓
Patriots closed -17.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, Dolphins +34.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
E.RoweDolphinsQ2 10:41(10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.6pts
J.WhitePatriotsQ4 3:59(3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.
22.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 25.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins163 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −34.1 for PatriotsExpected points −1.54 for PatriotsThe model had Dolphins 21 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:29NE +34% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:59NE +22% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.
2nd · 10:41MIA +20% win prob(10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02MIA +15% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 37 for no gain. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-12-T.Brady at NE 37. 12-T.Brady to NE 37 for no gain. Lateral to 28-J.White to NE 35 for -2 yards. Lateral to 62-J.Thuney to NE 36 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-12-T.Brady at NE 37. 12-T.Brady to NE 37 for no gain. Lateral to 84-B.Watson to NE 36 for -1 yards. Lateral to 11-J.Edelman to NE 35 for -1 yards. Lateral to 62-J.Thuney to NE 37 for 2 yards. Lateral to 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 33 for -4 yards. Lateral to 28-J.White to NE 35 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (55-J.Baker), RECOVERED by MIA-49-S.Eguavoen at NE 38. NE 11-Edelman 100th rec of season, 2nd career 100-rec season (2013). Patriots 225 pts allowed this season, new franchise record (237 in 2006).
3rd · 8:37NE +12% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki to NE 2 for 14 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Gesicki's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:29 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st1:42J.Sanders·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+33–0
4th0:29M.Gesicki·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Fitzpatrickfrom R.FitzpatrickLead never changed again+727–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryPatriots
Dolphins6–2Patriots
389Total yards352
5.7Yards per play6.2
49%Success rate42%
42%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
24First downs16
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Dolphins: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.04Patriots: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Dolphins: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 68 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Patriots’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Patriots 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +12.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Patriots9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.8 pts, 11.7 points below their season mean of -0.1 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jason McCourtyCBByron CowartDECody KesslerQBDamien HarrisRBTerrence BrooksSSJermaine EluemunorTRyan IzzoTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jarrett StidhamQBKorey CunninghamT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:41 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at NE 31 · gained nothing · -8.05 EP · −21.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 83 yards from the MIA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2174%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1332%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.3573%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4343%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.7329%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3450%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.58100%
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Dolphins 47
Dolphins3Patriots0
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Patriots 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 45
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 49
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Dolphins 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Dolphins9Patriots0
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins10Patriots0
Dolphins10Patriots3
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 7
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins10Patriots9
Dolphins10Patriots10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Dolphins 4
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
Dolphins16Patriots10
Dolphins17Patriots10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Patriots 2
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one linebackerDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Dolphins17Patriots16
Dolphins17Patriots17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 38
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 32
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Dolphins20Patriots17
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Patriots 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins20Patriots23
Dolphins20Patriots24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Dolphins 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins26Patriots24
Dolphins27Patriots24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -17.5
Closing total
46
Dolphins moneyline
+781
Patriots moneyline
-1117
Patriots closed -17.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 51 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:35NE +11% win prob(4:35) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 52-E.Roberts for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 540th career TD pass, 2nd all-time (Brees 547). NE 12-Brady 77th different career TD target, extends NFL record (Testaverde 70).
4th · 5:37NE +11% win prob(5:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-M.Sanu Sr. to MIA 10 for 22 yards (40-N.Needham).
4th · 1:10NE +10% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-A.Wilson to NE 17 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones).
