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DYNATYZE
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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Saints173 of 180 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 28-L.Murray up the middle to NO 38 for 13 yards (47-R.Cockrell; 23-J.Elliott).
Swing −5.4 for PanthersExpected points −0.85 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 43 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00CAR +5% win prob(15:00) 28-L.Murray up the middle to NO 38 for 13 yards (47-R.Cockrell; 23-J.Elliott).
1st · 10:54CAR +5% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:07CAR +5% win prob(10:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
1st · 7:31NO +4% win prob(7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.
1st · 8:50CAR +3% win prob(8:50) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to CAR 45 for 3 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 56-D.Davis).
1st · 11:30NO +3% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard to CAR 15 for 3 yards (56-J.Carter).
1st · 9:49CAR +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 10:54 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:54Alvin Kamara·15-yd TD run15-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.34Panthers: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Saints: +0.61 expected points added per play
−0.27Panthers: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.63Panthers: −0.63 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Panthers’s 69 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Panthers 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 76.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
NO's early-down pass rate, 45.3%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 16.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −3.6 pts, is past their previous low of −2.3 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 16.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Panthers12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.3%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 58.6% and 1.7 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
46 dressed · 7 inactive
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Full-time81%56 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Full-time80%55 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational49%34 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Rotational41%28 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Rotational38%26 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Rotational29%20 snaps
64Will ClappC · Rotational26%18 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
30Ricky OrtizFB · Rotational25%17 snaps
60Patrick OmamehG · Situational22%15 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational17%12 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Situational16%11 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Situational12%8 snaps
27Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eli AppleCBNoah SpenceDEZach LineFBVonn BellFSMarcus WilliamsFSManti Te'oMLBEthan GreenidgeT
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 7 inactive
60Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Dennis DaleyT · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Heavy rotation76%54 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
W.Grier FUMBLES−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:11) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 32, RECOVERED by NO-90-M.Brown at NO 32. 90-M.Brown to NO 32 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q2 13:11 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at NO 30 · gained nothing · -4.94 EP · −8.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 81 yards from the NO 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.2277%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.4047%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.3769%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7+0.0614%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2357%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3050%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.1820%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Saints6Panthers0
Saints7Panthers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 20
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 49
Saints13Panthers0
Saints14Panthers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Panthers 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter59 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Saints 30
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 34
Saints20Panthers0
Touchdown1 play
Saints21Panthers0
Punt5 plays
Saints27Panthers0
Saints28Panthers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Panthers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
Saints34Panthers0
Saints35Panthers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Panthers 21
Saints35Panthers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Saints 38
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 1 to the Saints 25
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Saints 47
Saints41Panthers3
Saints42Panthers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 45
Saints42Panthers9
Saints42Panthers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Saints 27
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 31
Intercepted14 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Saints 9
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Saints6
Panthers0
