2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
New Orleans SaintsWinner
42
Carolina Panthers
10
New Orleans Saints 42–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, CAR +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(15:00) 28-L.Murray up the middle to NO 38 for 13 yards (47-R.Cockrell; 23-J.Elliott).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 15:00CAR +5% win prob(15:00) 28-L.Murray up the middle to NO 38 for 13 yards (47-R.Cockrell; 23-J.Elliott).
- Q1 · 10:54CAR +5% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 10:07CAR +5% win prob(10:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
- Q1 · 7:31NO +4% win prob(7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 69 |
| Total yards | 383 (edge) | 329 |
| Yards per play | 6.1 (edge) | 4.8 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.26 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 39% |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.61 (edge) | -0.27 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 (edge) | -0.63 |
| Third downs | 4/10 (edge) | 5/16 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 10 | 75 | 4:12 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:48 | Punt | |
| 3 | NO | NO 11 | 4 | 9 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 42 | 4 | 7 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 5 | NO | NO 19 | 12 | 57 | 6:21 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 15 | 4 | 0 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 39 | 3 | 2 | 0:39 | Fumble | |
| 9 | NO | NO 32 | 4 | 2 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 9 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | -7 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 12 | NO | NO 35 | 10 | 50 | 4:29 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 15 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 14 | NO | NO 26 | 5 | 74 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 25 | 12 | 70 | 1:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | NO | NO 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:32 | End of half | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 47 | 7 | 11 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 1 | 6 | 24 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 26 | 6 | 27 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 20 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:52 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | CAR | CAR 25 | 11 | 75 | 3:52 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | NO | NO 25 | 8 | 13 | 4:10 | Punt | |
| 23 | CAR | CAR 26 | 7 | 47 | 2:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | NO | NO 27 | 4 | 4 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 25 | CAR | CAR 16 | 14 | 75 | 4:23 | Interception | |
| 26 | NO | NO 20 | 3 | 0 | 1:48 | End of game |
0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -13.5
- Closing total
- 45
- NO moneyline
- -660
- CAR moneyline
- +510
Saints closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 45; the game landed 52 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Bank of America Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 63°F, wind 9 mph
- Referee
- Ronald Torbert
- Rest
- NO 7 days · CAR 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Ron Rivera
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.