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New York Jets 13, Bills 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:26, 1st and 10, on A.Maulet — 12.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:26 · 1st and 10
A.Maulet
Jets
(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).
Jets closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
New York Jets 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, Jets +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
I.McKenzieBillsQ3 4:52(4:52) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to NYJ 26 for 12 yards (34-B.Poole). Caught along sideline at NYJ 26.
9.7pts
T.SweeneyBillsQ3 3:37(3:37) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short middle to 89-T.Sweeney to NYJ 11 for 17 yards (20-M.Maye). Caught at NYJ 16, slanting from right.
11.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 6 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets159 of 171 plays carry both curves
(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).
Swing −12.4 for BillsExpected points −5.67 for BillsThe model had Bills 3 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:26NYJ +12% win prob(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).
3rd · 3:37BUF +11% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short middle to 89-T.Sweeney to NYJ 11 for 17 yards (20-M.Maye). Caught at NYJ 16, slanting from right.
3rd · 4:52BUF +10% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to NYJ 26 for 12 yards (34-B.Poole). Caught along sideline at NYJ 26.
2nd · 0:04NYJ +10% win prob(:04) 9-S.Ficken 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
3rd · 11:52NYJ +9% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley sacked at NYJ 49 for -10 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins) [48-J.Jenkins], RECOVERED by NYJ-93-T.Basham at NYJ 40. 93-T.Basham to NYJ 42 for 2 yards (22-T.Yeldon; 61-S.Long).
4th · 14:15BUF +8% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 17-V.Smith left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 20 yards (24-T.Johnson). End-around, handoff from S.Darnold.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Crowder's 1-yard touchdown catch with 13:34 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd10:58S.Ficken·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
3rd1:32S.Hauschka·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+33–3
4th13:34J.Crowder·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom S.Darnoldfrom S.DarnoldLead never changed again+710–3
4th2:09S.Ficken·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+313–3
4th0:51S.Hauschka·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+313–6
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets5–4Bills
273Total yards309
4.3Yards per play5.2
40%Success rate37%
36%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays9
17First downs16
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers4
The read
Jets ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Jets: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.25Bills: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Jets: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.29Bills: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Jets: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.18Bills: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 63 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 60 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Bills 2.
NoteBills outgained Jets 309-273 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bills5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.0%, 9.6 points below their season mean of 14.6% and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Barkley pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).
Q4 5:26 · Bills · 1st & 10 at NYJ 49 · gained nothing · -5.67 EP · −13.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 77 yards from the BUF 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
33%
Yards
580
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.4269%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0359%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1764%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5427%
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.54100%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
No good12 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Bills 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 46
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 30
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 26
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets3Bills0
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Bills 12
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Jets 47
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 35
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 40
No good12 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 10
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Jets3Bills3
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Jets 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 43
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jets9Bills3
Jets10Bills3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 49
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Bills 45
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Jets 49
Jets13Bills3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 26
Jets13Bills6
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Jets 11
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
