2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · New Era Field

New York JetsWinner

Buffalo Bills

NYJ -1.5 ✓U 37 ✓Jets closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

New York Jets 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, NYJ +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:26NYJ — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 10NYJ 82%

(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:26NYJ +12% win prob(5:26) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 22-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 45. 23-A.Maulet to BUF 42 for 13 yards (61-S.Long).
Q3 · 3:37BUF +11% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short middle to 89-T.Sweeney to NYJ 11 for 17 yards (20-M.Maye). Caught at NYJ 16, slanting from right.
Q3 · 4:52BUF +10% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to NYJ 26 for 12 yards (34-B.Poole). Caught along sideline at NYJ 26.
Q2 · 0:04NYJ +10% win prob(:04) 9-S.Ficken 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	63	60
Total yards	273	309 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	40% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	60%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bills outgained Jets 309–273 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 8	12	59	6:26	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 41	4	0	1:31	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 23	5	12	1:52	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 26	4	14	2:01	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 28	3	2	0:50	Interception
6	BUF	BUF 49	4	-2	0:57	Fumble
7	NYJ	NYJ 17	11	59	5:29	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 23	9	40	4:53	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 17	5	18	2:26	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 30	5	10	1:45	Interception
11	NYJ	BUF 43	9	27	1:50	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 24	9	41	3:19	Fumble
13	NYJ	NYJ 42	4	3	2:01	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 12	16	72	8:11	Turnover on downs
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	75	2:58	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	6	22	2:24	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	-2	1:46	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 23	4	0	0:55	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 48	4	7	1:44	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 6	3	45	1:25	Interception
21	NYJ	BUF 42	7	13	3:12	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	BUF 22	9	67	1:18	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	BUF 43	3	0	0:47	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -1.5
Closing total: 37
NYJ moneyline: -124
BUF moneyline: +112

Jets closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 37; the game landed 19 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Bradley Rogers
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.