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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
RaidersOakland15
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver16
Oakland Raiders 15 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -5.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Denver Broncos 16, Raiders 15 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:07, on H.Renfrow — 30.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07
H.Renfrow
Broncos
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 13-H.Renfrow is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
30.7
29°F
Broncos closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Broncos +30.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.WallerRaidersQ1 2:17(2:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller to DEN 17 for 75 yards (34-W.Parks).
14.0pts
H.RenfrowRaidersQ4 0:11(:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.6pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders168 of 181 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:07Raiders 15 — Broncos 16LV ballDEN 57%
Raiders 43%Broncos 57%
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 13-H.Renfrow is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +30.7 for BroncosExpected points +0.95 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07OAK +31% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 13-H.Renfrow is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:11DEN +22% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:17DEN +14% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller to DEN 17 for 75 yards (34-W.Parks).
4th · 1:46OAK +10% win prob(1:46) 8-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
2nd · 1:24OAK +10% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 88-M.Ateman to DEN 47 for 20 yards (36-T.Marshall). FUMBLES (36-T.Marshall), RECOVERED by DEN-36-T.Marshall at DEN 47. 36-T.Marshall pushed ob at LV 41 for 12 yards (74-K.Miller).
1st · 7:42OAK +10% win prob(7:42) 8-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Beck's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:33 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:10D.Carlson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
2nd8:25B.McManus·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–3
2nd0:33A.Beck·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Lockfrom D.LockLead never changed again+73–10
3rd4:41B.McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–13
4th15:00B.McManus·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–16
4th9:07D.Carlson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+36–16
4th3:13D.Carlson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+39–16
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Broncos8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 19.2% — and DEN swings 20.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%73 snaps
72David SharpeT · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Denzelle GoodT · Every snap100%73 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%73 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time95%69 snaps
12Zay JonesWR · Full-time82%60 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
33DeAndre WashingtonRB · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 13-H.Renfrow is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:07 · Raiders · — at DEN 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −28.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 88 yards from the LV 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
37%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0582%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0961%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.0959%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0350%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-1.010%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3480%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 26
No good13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 20
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Raiders 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Broncos 10
2nd quarter48 plays
Raiders3Broncos0
Field goal3 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 5
Raiders3Broncos3
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 1
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Broncos 15
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 33
Raiders3Broncos9
Raiders3Broncos10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Raiders 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 39
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 18
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 45
Raiders3Broncos13
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Raiders 31
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Raiders 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Raiders 25
4th quarter59 plays
Raiders3Broncos16
Field goal1 play
Raiders6Broncos16
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 13
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Raiders 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Drive ended5 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Broncos 16
Raiders9Broncos16
Field goal8 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 27
No good7 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Raiders15Broncos16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Broncos 3
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -5.5
Closing total
41.5
Raiders moneyline
+195
Broncos moneyline
-221
Broncos closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 31 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 29°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Vic Fangio
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 7:35
DEN +8% win prob
(7:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard to DEN 42 for 33 yards (45-A.Johnson).
4th · 5:14DEN +8% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to DEN 25 for 39 yards. Lateral to 88-M.Ateman to DEN 16 for 9 yards (45-A.Johnson; 31-J.Simmons).
