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Philadelphia Eagles 34 at New York Giants 17. Final.
Eagles -4 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Philadelphia Eagles 34, Giants 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:16, 1st and 10, on S.Barkley — 18.1 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:16 · 1st and 10
S.Barkley
Giants
(2:16) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.1
Eagles closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:16, Giants +18.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.TateGiantsQ3 9:50(9:50) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
11.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ4 13:12(13:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 22, and recovers at NYG 22. 8-D.Jones to NYG 20 for -2 yards (27-M.Jenkins). FUMBLES (27-M.Jenkins), touched at NYG 20, RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at NYG 3. 91-F.Cox to NYG 2 for 1 yard (8-D.Jones). Officially a rush for 0 yards.
15.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles187 of 197 plays carry both curves
(2:16) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.1 for GiantsExpected points +5.38 for GiantsThe model had Giants 9 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:16NYG +18% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:12PHI +16% win prob(13:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 22, and recovers at NYG 22. 8-D.Jones to NYG 20 for -2 yards (27-M.Jenkins). FUMBLES (27-M.Jenkins), touched at NYG 20, RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at NYG 3. 91-F.Cox to NYG 2 for 1 yard (8-D.Jones). Officially a rush for 0 yards.
3rd · 9:50NYG +11% win prob(9:50) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 15:00NYG +11% win prob(15:00) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 16-D.Burnett pushed ob at NYG 32 for 41 yards (30-A.Hamilton).
4th · 14:03NYG +9% win prob(14:03) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
3rd · 5:38PHI +9% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (34-C.LeBlanc).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Elliott's 50-yard field goal with 14:03 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:43J.Elliott·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–0
2nd5:20A.Rosas·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Holba+33–3
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Eagles: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.25Giants: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.61Giants: −0.61 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Giants’s 72 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Giants 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 20.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 17.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.2 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.8% in week 16 against 9.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Giants9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 38.8 points above their season mean of 36.2% and 1.2 times their own 32.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Sam BealDBChris SlaytonDTChad SladeGAlex TanneyQBWayne GallmanRBMike RemmersTDavid SillsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
R.J. McIntoshDTEric SmithOTEli ManningQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Barkley right+25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:16) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:16 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 32 · gained 68 · +5.38 EP · +25.0% win probability
185 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 76 yards from the NYG 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
797
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67-0.2572%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR46-0.0863%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.4064%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.3714%
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Giants 38
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 39 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Eagles3Giants0
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Giants 13
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 32
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Giants 42
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 10
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Giants 48
Eagles3Giants3
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Eagles 19
Eagles9Giants3
Eagles10Giants3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 24
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Eagles 47
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 16
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSix
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Eagles10Giants9
Eagles10Giants10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Eagles 20
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Eagles 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles16Giants10
Eagles17Giants10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Giants 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles17Giants16
Eagles17Giants17
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 37
4th quarter58 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Eagles20Giants17
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Giants 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Eagles26Giants17
Eagles27Giants17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 41
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 39
Eagles33Giants17
Eagles34Giants17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 2
Intercepted9 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Eagles 29
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 17
The period ended13 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Eagles 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
