2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore RavensWinner

PIT -2 upsetO 35 ✓Steelers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:54, PIT +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:54PIT — BAL PIT ball · 2nd & 10PIT 57%

(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:54PIT +19% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Q2 · 3:00BAL +11% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass deep middle to 81-H.Hurst to PIT 27 for 20 yards (20-C.Sutton).
Q1 · 4:19BAL +10% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to PIT 4 for 38 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Q3 · 13:21PIT +8% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 31 for -1 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-23-J.Haden at BAL 37. 23-J.Haden to BAL 34 for 3 yards (86-N.Boyle).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	49	68
Total yards	169	304 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.42	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	29%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.51	-0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 33	12	35	7:04	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 25	5	1	0:52	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 35	9	61	4:24	Turnover on downs
4	PIT	PIT 25	12	75	4:50	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 25	8	18	3:04	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 19	9	28	4:30	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 20	9	41	4:06	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 29	4	5	0:25	Fumble
9	BAL	PIT 23	5	28	0:24	Touchdown
10	PIT	PIT 29	2	0	0:21	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	0:58	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 18	3	14	0:46	Fumble
13	PIT	BAL 34	7	21	3:21	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 25	8	32	5:09	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 19	4	3	2:04	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 37	8	29	4:13	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 25	8	25	2:15	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 2	10	30	6:20	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 19	5	0	0:18	Defensive touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 6	2	0	0:15	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	BAL 39	8	16	3:57	Interception
22	PIT	PIT 40	1	9	0:24	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -2
Closing total: 35
PIT moneyline: -135
BAL moneyline: +122

Steelers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 35; the game landed 38 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PIT 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.