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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh10
BY 18final margin
RavensBaltimore28
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Baltimore Ravens 28. Final.
Steelers -2 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Baltimore Ravens 28, Steelers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:54, 2nd and 10, on D.Hodges — 19.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:54 · 2nd and 10
D.Hodges
Ravens
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).
O 35 ✓
Steelers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:54, Ravens +19.2% win probability on one snap.
19.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.EdwardsRavensQ1 4:19(4:19) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to PIT 4 for 38 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
9.7pts
H.HurstRavensQ2 3:00(3:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass deep middle to 81-H.Hurst to PIT 27 for 20 yards (20-C.Sutton).
10.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Swing +19.2 for RavensExpected points +5.32 for RavensThe model had Ravens 11 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:54PIT +19% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).
2nd · 3:00BAL +11% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass deep middle to 81-H.Hurst to PIT 27 for 20 yards (20-C.Sutton).
1st · 4:19BAL +10% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to PIT 4 for 38 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
3rd · 13:21PIT +8% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 31 for -1 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-23-J.Haden at BAL 37. 23-J.Haden to BAL 34 for 3 yards (86-N.Boyle).
2nd · 0:26BAL +7% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:29PIT +7% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short right [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on PIT-6-D.Hodges, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at 50.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Tucker's 42-yard field goal with 1:14 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:01J.Tucker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st2:42J.Tucker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–6
4th4:27Ravens·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+210–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers1–6Ravens
169Total yards304
3.4Yards per play4.5
29%Success rate43%
42%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays8
9First downs18
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.42Steelers: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.51Steelers: −0.51 expected points added per play
−0.25Ravens: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Steelers: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 49 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Ravens’s 68 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Ravens 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 28.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.2 pts, 9.5 points below their season mean of -7.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%50 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%50 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%50 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%50 snaps
6Devlin HodgesQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
67B.J. FinneyC · Every snap100%50 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Full-time88%44 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Full-time88%44 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation78%39 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation74%37 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hodges sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 34 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], touched at PIT 34, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at PIT 25. 97-M.Pierce to PIT 23 for 2 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Q2 0:54 · Steelers · 2nd & 10 at PIT 45 · lost 11 · -5.32 EP · −17.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
39%
Yards
472
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0139%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.4575%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.2813%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.1422%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0925%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.29100%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.180%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Steelers0Ravens3
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Steelers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Steelers0Ravens6
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Steelers 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 47
2nd quarter48 plays
Steelers6Ravens6
Steelers7Ravens6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 4
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 48
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Steelers7Ravens9
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Steelers 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 45
Steelers7Ravens15
Steelers7Ravens16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 32
Steelers10Ravens16
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 6
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 22
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Steelers 36
4th quarter44 plays
Steelers10Ravens19
Field goal3 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 29
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to midfield
Punt12 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 32
Steelers10Ravens25
Touchdown4 plays
Steelers10Ravens26
Steelers10Ravens28
Drive ended6 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Steelers 47
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers0
Ravens3
