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2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · CenturyLink Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco26
BY 5final margin
SeahawksSeattle21
San Francisco 49ers 26 at Seattle Seahawks 21. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓47 push
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
San Francisco 49ers 26, Seahawks 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:12, 4th and 5, on J.Hollister — 21.5 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:12 · 4th and 5
J.Hollister
49ers
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
San Francisco 49ers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, 49ers +21.5% win probability on one snap.
21.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.Wilson49ersQ4 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-DK.Metcalf.
14.0pts
J.UrsuaSeahawksQ4 0:42(:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Ursua to SF 1 for 11 yards (24-K.Williams).
21.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.16 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.11 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing −21.5 for SeahawksExpected points −2.49 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 10 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12SF +21% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:42SEA +21% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Ursua to SF 1 for 11 yards (24-K.Williams).
4th · 0:46SF +14% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-DK.Metcalf.
4th · 1:46SEA +13% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 23 for 24 yards (41-E.Moseley).
4th · 1:33SEA +11% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett to SF 12 for 11 yards (54-F.Warner) [57-D.Greenlaw].
4th · 2:52SF +10% win prob(2:52) 19-D.Samuel right end to SF 27 for 3 yards (26-Sl.Griffin). PENALTY on SF-63-B.Garland, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at SF 27.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Gould's 47-yard field goal with 7:41 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:41R.Gould·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.NelsonLead never changed again+33–0
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3749ers: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.5749ers: +0.57 expected points added per play
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.16Seahawks: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 49 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 70 at 67%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Seahawks 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 57.1% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 17.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.0% in week 16 against 19.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Seahawks8.0%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.1 points above their season mean of 21.5% and 1.8 times their own 25.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:12 · Seahawks · 4th & goal at SF 5 · gained 4 · -2.49 EP · −29.6% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 94 yards from the SF 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
46%
Yards
746
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1765%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.0639%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.3690%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1767%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+1.0733%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.510%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4467%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
49ers3Seahawks0
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Seahawks 27
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 44
49ers9Seahawks0
49ers10Seahawks0
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 6 to the Seahawks 30
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 37
49ers13Seahawks0
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Seahawks 7
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
49ers13Seahawks6
49ers13Seahawks7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the 49ers 14
49ers19Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
4th quarter58 plays
49ers19Seahawks13
49ers19Seahawks14
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 1
49ers25Seahawks14
49ers26Seahawks14
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 13
49ers26Seahawks20
49ers26Seahawks21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the 49ers 14
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the 49ers 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers3
Seahawks0
