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Tennessee Titans 35, Texans 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:05, 4th and 1, on G.Howell — 7.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:05 · 4th and 1
G.Howell
Texans
(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
Dome
Titans closed -10 and covered, winning by 21.
Tennessee Titans 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:05, Texans +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.JohnsonTitansQ1 7:29(7:29) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6.7pts
A.BrownTitansQ1 5:45(5:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.80 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.50 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
Swing +7.6 for TexansExpected points +1.93 for TexansThe model had Texans 34 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:05HOU +8% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
1st · 5:45HOU +7% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:29TEN +7% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:20HOU +6% win prob(7:20) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles left end ran ob at TEN 44 for 19 yards (20-J.Reid).
1st · 3:40TEN +6% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron sacked at HOU 44 for -8 yards (50-D.Roberson).
1st · 11:31HOU +5% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass deep right to 11-S.Mitchell ran ob at TEN 33 for 21 yards.
2nd · 5:04HOU +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Pruitt's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:49 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Titans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.50Titans: +0.50 expected points added per play
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.80Titans: +0.80 expected points added per play
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Titans: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 57 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Texans’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Texans 2.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 31.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 40.0% in week 12.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Texans8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.3%, 18.1 points below their season mean of 49.4% and 1.8 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:45 · Titans · 3rd & 5 at TEN 49 · gained 51 · +5.62 EP · +13.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 90 yards from the TEN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
46%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0864%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.0458%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.3956%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4017%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.8217%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2820%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Titans0Texans6
Titans0Texans7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Titans6Texans7
Titans7Texans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 49
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 25
2nd quarter47 plays
Titans13Texans7
Titans14Texans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Texans 49
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 38
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 42
3rd quarter35 plays
Titans20Texans7
Titans21Texans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Texans 3
Titans21Texans13
Titans21Texans14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 37
4th quarter50 plays
Titans27Texans14
Titans28Texans14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 29
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 37
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 35
Intercepted5 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Titans 30
Titans34Texans14
Titans35Texans14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 47
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 31
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
