2019 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2019 · NRG Stadium
Tennessee TitansWinner
35
Houston Texans
14
Tennessee Titans 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:05, HOU +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 8:05HOU +8% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
- Q1 · 5:45HOU +7% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 7:29TEN +7% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 7:20HOU +6% win prob(7:20) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles left end ran ob at TEN 44 for 19 yards (20-J.Reid).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Titans | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 65 |
| Total yards | 469 (edge) | 301 |
| Yards per play | 8.2 (edge) | 4.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.50 (edge) | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 61% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 40% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.80 (edge) | -0.07 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.30 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Third downs | 5/9 (edge) | 3/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 17 | 75 | 7:35 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 25 | 6 | 75 | 1:52 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 19 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 10 | 17 | 90 | 8:04 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 19 | 6 | 27 | 2:55 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 13 | 6 | 24 | 3:43 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 17 | 8 | 37 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 9 | 4 | 24 | 0:41 | End of half | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 22 | 12 | 63 | 4:54 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 25 | 18 | 80 | 8:57 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:07 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 21 | 4 | 8 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 30 | 4 | -1 | 2:28 | Punt | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 26 | 4 | 9 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 47 | 5 | 23 | 1:20 | Interception | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 15 | 5 | 85 | 0:32 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 44 | 1:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 31 | 3 | 0 | 1:34 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -10
- Closing total
- 43
- TEN moneyline
- -366
- HOU moneyline
- +308
Titans closed -10 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 43; the game landed 49 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike Vrabel vs Bill O'Brien
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.