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Washington Commanders 16 at Dallas Cowboys 47. Final.
Cowboys -13 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 17
Dallas Cowboys 47, Commanders 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:02, 3rd and 6, on D.Prescott — 8.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:02 · 3rd and 6
D.Prescott
Commanders
(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 38 for 9 yards (46-M.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-21-E.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play.
Dome
Cowboys closed -13 and covered, winning by 31.
Dallas Cowboys 47–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:02, Commanders +8.1% win probability on one snap.
8.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.PetersonCowboysQ1 6:54(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 26-A.Peterson to WAS 30 for no gain (43-M.Smith). FUMBLES (43-M.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-25-X.Woods at WAS 30. 25-X.Woods to WAS 21 for 9 yards (26-A.Peterson; 84-D.Kidsy).
7.9pts
D.PrescottCommandersQ2 14:43(14:43) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 14 for -4 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat) [90-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by WAS-51-S.Hamilton at DAL 16. 51-S.Hamilton to DAL 16 for no gain (4-D.Prescott).
6.8pts
What separated them
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 1 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Commanders at 6 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.61 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders176 of 184 plays carry both curves
(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 38 for 9 yards (46-M.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-21-E.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play.
Swing −8.1 for CowboysExpected points −1.48 for CowboysThe model had Commanders 30 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:02WAS +8% win prob(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 38 for 9 yards (46-M.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-21-E.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play.
1st · 6:54WAS +8% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 26-A.Peterson to WAS 30 for no gain (43-M.Smith). FUMBLES (43-M.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-25-X.Woods at WAS 30. 25-X.Woods to WAS 21 for 9 yards (26-A.Peterson; 84-D.Kidsy).
2nd · 14:43WAS +7% win prob(14:43) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 14 for -4 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat) [90-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by WAS-51-S.Hamilton at DAL 16. 51-S.Hamilton to DAL 16 for no gain (4-D.Prescott).
1st · 5:18DAL +5% win prob(5:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
1st · 12:41WAS +5% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 87-J.Sprinkle INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith at WAS 36. 54-J.Smith to WAS 36 for no gain (87-J.Sprinkle).
2nd · 12:23DAL +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Forbath's 28-yard field goal with 7:44 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:44K.Forbath·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+30–3
1st5:18K.Forbath·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–6
2nd13:41D.Hopkins·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–6
4th2:44K.Forbath·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+316–47
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders1–8Cowboys
271Total yards518
4.6Yards per play7.3
34%Success rate44%
8%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays13
12First downs22
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Commanders: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.20Cowboys: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.61Commanders: −0.61 expected points added per play
+0.22Cowboys: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 71 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.9% in week 16 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys12.8%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 40.7 points above their season mean of 34.3% and 1.0 times their own 40.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%62 snaps
67Wes MartinG · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%62 snaps
8Case KeenumQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
72Donald PennT · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%62 snaps
13Kelvin HarmonWR · Full-time90%56 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Heavy rotation68%42 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
88Hale HentgesTE · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
25Chris ThompsonRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational45%28 snaps
84Darvin KidsyWR · Rotational35%22 snaps
66Tony BergstromG · Situational24%15 snaps
34Wendell SmallwoodRB · Situational6%4 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCJosh NormanCBTroy ApkeDBDwayne HaskinsQBLandon CollinsSSCaleb WilsonTETerry McLaurinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 26-A.Peterson to WAS 30 for no gain (43-M.Smith). FUMBLES (43-M.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-25-X.Woods at WAS 30. 25-X.Woods to WAS 21 for 9 yards (26-A.Peterson; 84-D.Kidsy).
Q1 6:54 · Commanders · 2nd & 5 at WAS 30 · gained nothing · -5.97 EP · −12.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
788
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.3553%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.8586%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0550%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0543%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0833%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.220%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1540%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Intercepted3 plays
Commanders0Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Commanders0Cowboys6
Field goal4 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 24
2nd quarter61 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Commanders3Cowboys6
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 13
Commanders3Cowboys12
Commanders3Cowboys13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 13
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 39
Commanders3Cowboys19
Commanders3Cowboys20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Commanders 33
Commanders9Cowboys20
Commanders10Cowboys20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Cowboys 6
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter44 plays
Commanders13Cowboys20
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Cowboys 23
Commanders13Cowboys26
Commanders13Cowboys27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 4
Commanders16Cowboys27
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 10
Commanders16Cowboys30
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Commanders 26
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Commanders16Cowboys36
Commanders16Cowboys37
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Commanders 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
4th quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Commanders 49
Commanders16Cowboys43
Commanders16Cowboys44
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 45
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Commanders16Cowboys47
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Commanders 22
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -13
Closing total
47.5
Commanders moneyline
+485
Cowboys moneyline
-621
Cowboys closed -13 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 63 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Bill Callahan vs Jason Garrett
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(12:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper to WAS 16 for 48 yards (32-K.Ladler). Penalty on WAS-52-R.Anderson, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 7:44WAS +4% win prob(7:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
1st · 15:00WAS +4% win prob(15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten to DAL 26 for 1 yard (53-J.Bostic) [39-J.Reaves].
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders0
Cowboys3
