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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 22, Bills 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:16, 2nd and 6, on T.Jones — 37.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:16 · 2nd and 6
T.Jones
Texans
(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
Dome
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Houston Texans 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:16, Texans +37.5% win probability on one snap.
37.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.HauschkaBillsQ4 0:10(:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
24.7pts
D.KnoxBillsOT 12:36(12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox ran ob at BUF 42 for 14 yards (22-G.Conley).
25.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bills186 of 201 plays carry both curves
(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
Swing +37.5 for TexansExpected points +0.48 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:16HOU +38% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
Overtime · 12:36HOU +25% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox ran ob at BUF 42 for 14 yards (22-G.Conley).
4th · 0:10HOU +25% win prob(:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Overtime · 6:56HOU +23% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 25-D.Johnson to HOU 37 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 33-S.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:00BUF +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle [33-A.Moore]. Penalty on BUF-76-J.Feliciano, Illegal Touch Pass, declined. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 28.
Overtime · 11:21HOU +20% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to HOU 43 for 14 yards (55-B.McKinney).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Fairbairn's 28-yard field goal with 3:23 left in overtime put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:10S.Hauschka·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+319–19
Overtime3:23K.Fairbairn·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+319–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTexans
Bills6–3Texans
425Total yards365
5.4Yards per play5.5
43%Success rate41%
52%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays6
24First downs20
3Sacks taken7
2Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.01Texans: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.09Texans: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 79 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Texans 3.
NoteBills outgained Texans 425-365 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, sat 15.0 points above their season number of 15.0% — they got home by 2.4 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
off script — got home · +15.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+2.37× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans22.0%
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 2.4 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%85 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%85 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%85 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%85 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%85 snaps
15John BrownWR · Every snap99%84 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation76%65 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation69%59 snaps
82Duke WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation66%56 snaps
10Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation64%54 snaps
70Cody FordT · Heavy rotation51%43 snaps
77Ty NsekheT · Rotational49%42 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational32%27 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Rotational29%25 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Situational24%20 snaps
20Frank GoreRB · Situational22%19 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational19%16 snaps
Inactive · 7
Levi WallaceCBVincent TaylorDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTRyan BatesTTommy SweeneyTERobert FosterWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Watson pass+38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
OT 4:16 · Texans · 2nd & 6 at BUF 44 · gained 34 · +0.48 EP · +37.5% win probability
184 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
36%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0864%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0456%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1471%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.5783%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.8250%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.280%
Bills0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills6Texans0
Bills7Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Texans 16
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bills 37
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 22
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Bills 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Bills10Texans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Texans 22
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
Bills13Texans0
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Texans 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Texans 38
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 32
Bills16Texans0
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 12
Bills16Texans6
Bills16Texans8
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bills 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 25 to midfield
4th quarter55 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 47
Bills16Texans11
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Bills 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bills16Texans17
Bills16Texans19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Bills 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Texans 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bills19Texans19
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Texans 29
The period ended3 plays
Overtime30 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.3 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Texans 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Bills19Texans22
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Bills 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
