2019 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 4, 2020 · NRG Stadium
Buffalo Bills
19
Houston TexansWinner
22
Houston Texans 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:16, HOU +38% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
Highest-leverage plays
- OT · 4:16HOU +38% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].
- OT · 12:36HOU +25% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox ran ob at BUF 42 for 14 yards (22-G.Conley).
- Q4 · 0:10HOU +25% win prob(:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
- OT · 6:56HOU +23% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 25-D.Johnson to HOU 37 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 33-S.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 79 | 66 |
| Total yards | 425 (edge) | 365 |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 5.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.01 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Third downs | 11/21 (edge) | 6/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 7 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Bills outgained Texans 425–365 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 75 | 3:19 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 25 | 10 | 38 | 4:39 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 10 | 7 | 19 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 36 | 7 | 18 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 9 | 11 | 74 | 4:45 | Fumble | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 25 | 5:02 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 4 | 15 | 79 | 5:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | HOU | — | 1 | 0 | 0:04 | End of half | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | -6 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 36 | 5 | 24 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 20 | 4 | 17 | 1:21 | Fumble | |
| 12 | BUF | HOU 38 | 8 | 18 | 3:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 25 | 11 | 77 | 4:29 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 32 | 2:22 | Fumble | |
| 15 | HOU | 50 | 6 | 27 | 3:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:26 | Punt | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 26 | 9 | 75 | 4:52 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 25 | 9 | 28 | 3:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | HOU | BUF 39 | 4 | 9 | 0:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 30 | 11 | 42 | 1:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | HOU | HOU 31 | 2 | 0 | 0:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 12 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 23 | BUF | BUF 30 | 10 | 28 | 4:24 | Punt | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 17 | 9 | 73 | 5:42 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 79 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- HOU -2.5
- Closing total
- 43
- BUF moneyline
- +130
- HOU moneyline
- -144
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Tony Corrente
- Rest
- BUF 6 days · HOU 6 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Bill O'Brien