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Minnesota Vikings 26 at New Orleans Saints 20. Final.
Saints -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Wild Card
Minnesota Vikings 26, Saints 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:26, 1st and 10, on D.Brees — 38.0 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:26 · 1st and 10
D.Brees
Vikings
(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).
U 50 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:26, Vikings +38.0% win probability on one snap.
38.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
W.LutzSaintsQ4 0:07(:07) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
18.1pts
A.ThielenVikingsOT 12:42(12:42) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to NO 2 for 43 yards (21-P.Robinson). Pass 40, YAC 3
20.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 10 of 18 on third down, against Saints at 4 of 11 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Vikings169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).
Swing −38.0 for SaintsExpected points −6.56 for SaintsThe model had Vikings 6 points higher than the market did.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:26MIN +38% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).
Overtime · 12:42NO +20% win prob(12:42) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to NO 2 for 43 yards (21-P.Robinson). Pass 40, YAC 3
4th · 0:07NO +18% win prob(:07) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 4:35NO +15% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end pushed ob at MIN 20 for 28 yards (22-H.Smith).
3rd · 6:15NO +14% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to NO 19 for 34 yards (43-M.Williams) [56-D.Davis]. Pass 28, YAC 6
Overtime · 13:19NO +12% win prob(13:19) 33-D.Cook right tackle to NO 45 for 11 yards (53-A.Klein).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Rudolph's 4-yard touchdown catch with 10:45 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:56W.Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–3
1st4:09D.Bailey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+33–3
4th0:07W.Lutz·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+320–20
Overtime10:45K.Rudolph·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.CousinsLead never changed again+626–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categorySaints
Vikings5–2Saints
363Total yards324
5.0Yards per play6.0
44%Success rate44%
56%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
21First downs18
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.12Saints: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Vikings: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.29Saints: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Vikings: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 73 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Saints 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Saints11.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 42.5 points below their season mean of 42.5% and 1.3 times their own 33.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Will ClappCEli AppleCBNoah SpenceDEZach LineFBD.J. SwearingerFSManti Te'oMLBEthan GreenidgeT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Teddy BridgewaterQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Brees sacked−36% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).
Q4 4:26 · Saints · 1st & 10 at MIN 20 · lost 14 · -6.56 EP · −35.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 85 yards from the NO 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.4477%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1252%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2074%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.2058%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.3131%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0622%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 39
Vikings0Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 4
Vikings3Saints3
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 25
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 17
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 36 to midfield
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 38
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 36
Vikings3Saints9
Vikings3Saints10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Vikings 4
Vikings6Saints10
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 28
Vikings12Saints10
Vikings13Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 5
No good4 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 25
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 44
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 20
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Vikings19Saints10
Vikings20Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Saints 1
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 35
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Vikings20Saints16
Vikings20Saints17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Vikings 20
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Vikings 20
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 47
Vikings20Saints20
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Vikings 26
The period ended3 plays
Overtime12 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Vikings26Saints20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Vikingscategory by categorySaints
Vikings0
Saints3
