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2019 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 5, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Minnesota VikingsWinner

26

New Orleans Saints

20

NO -7.5 upsetU 50 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:26, MIN +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4NOMIN
Q4 · 4:26MIN NO NO ball · 1st & 10NO 65%

(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:26MIN +38% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at MIN 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 34, RECOVERED by MIN-92-J.Holmes at MIN 36. 92-J.Holmes to MIN 37 for 1 yard (71-R.Ramczyk).
  2. OT · 12:42NO +20% win prob(12:42) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to NO 2 for 43 yards (21-P.Robinson). Pass 40, YAC 3
  3. Q4 · 0:07NO +18% win prob(:07) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
  4. Q4 · 4:35NO +15% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end pushed ob at MIN 20 for 28 yards (22-H.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsSaints
Offensive plays7354
Total yards363 (edge)324
Yards per play5.06.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.01 (edge)-0.12
Success rate44%44% (edge)
Dropback rate47%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.26 (edge)
Third downs10/18 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)18
Sacks taken33
Turnovers22

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 253120:50Fumble
2NOMIN 378214:18Turnover on downs
3MINMIN 2512505:47Turnover on downs
4NONO 12541:29Punt
5MINMIN 365172:44Punt
6NONO 205181:48Punt
7MINMIN 30461:34Punt
8NONO 305702:12Touchdown
9MINMIN 2514726:24Turnover on downs
10NONO 24440:51Interception
11MINNO 458451:40Touchdown
12NOMIN 453200:23Turnover on downs
13NONO 238154:20Punt
14MINMIN 124142:05Punt
15NONO 194-11:35Punt
16MINMIN 369543:37Touchdown
17NONO 28571:42Punt
18MINMIN 34471:48Punt
19NONO 159854:22Touchdown
20MINMIN 258143:42Punt
21NONO 296372:31Fumble
22MINMIN 377-32:23Defensive touchdown
23NONO 307441:53Turnover on downs
24MINMIN 25200:02Turnover on downs
25MINMIN 2510754:20Touchdown

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -7.5
Closing total
50
MIN moneyline
+300
NO moneyline
-355

Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
MIN 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Sean Payton