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2019 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 5, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
SeahawksSeattle17
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia9
Seattle Seahawks 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 9. Final.
Eagles -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Wild Card
Seattle Seahawks 17, Eagles 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:36, 3rd and 10, on D.Moore — 24.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:36 · 3rd and 10
D.Moore
Seahawks
(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore to PHI 5 for 38 yards (27-M.Jenkins) [53-N.Bradham].
U 44 ✓
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 1:36, Seahawks +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK.MetcalfSeahawksQ3 8:55(8:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
J.McCownSeahawksQ4 6:24(6:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 26-M.Sanders.
11.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 11 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Seahawks157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore to PHI 5 for 38 yards (27-M.Jenkins) [53-N.Bradham].
Swing −24.1 for EaglesExpected points −3.52 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 6 points higher than the market did.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:36PHI +24% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore to PHI 5 for 38 yards (27-M.Jenkins) [53-N.Bradham].
3rd · 8:55PHI +15% win prob(8:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:24SEA +12% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 26-M.Sanders.
4th · 4:03PHI +12% win prob(4:03) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete deep left to 83-S.Gibson (21-T.Flowers). PENALTY on SEA-21-T.Flowers, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at PHI 48 - No Play.
1st · 3:51PHI +11% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-DK.Metcalf to PHI 38 for 24 yards (31-J.Mills; 37-M.Epps) [27-M.Jenkins].
2nd · 5:20PHI +10% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to SEA 37 for 17 yards (26-Sl.Griffin; 30-B.McDougald).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Lynch's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 1:11 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:34J.Myers·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–0
2nd2:58J.Elliott·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–3
2nd1:11M.Lynch·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–3
3rd10:39J.Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+310–6
3rd2:53J.Elliott·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+317–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryEagles
Seahawks7–1Eagles
385Total yards282
7.1Yards per play4.6
37%Success rate33%
57%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays8
14First downs16
1Sacks taken7
0Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.17Eagles: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Seahawks: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Seahawks: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.05Eagles: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 54 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Eagles’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Eagles 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, sat 14.3 points above their season number of 10.1% — they got home by 2.9 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
off script — got home · +14.3 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+2.88× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Eagles31.4%
leaned — got home · +14.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 10.1% and 2.9 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore to PHI 5 for 38 yards (27-M.Jenkins) [53-N.Bradham].
Q2 1:36 · Seahawks · 3rd & 10 at PHI 43 · gained 38 · +3.52 EP · +18.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 82 yards from the SEA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
34%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3965%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38-0.0766%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16-0.3131%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3236%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5-0.3680%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 37
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 24
No good7 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Eagles 17
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Seahawks3Eagles0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Eagles 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Eagles 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks3Eagles3
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Seahawks 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Seahawks9Eagles3
Seahawks10Eagles3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Eagles 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 36
3rd quarter39 plays
Seahawks10Eagles6
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Seahawks 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks16Eagles6
Seahawks17Eagles6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 48
Seahawks17Eagles9
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Seahawks 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 38
4th quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Eagles 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Seahawks 24
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 29
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -1
Closing total
44
Seahawks moneyline
+108
Eagles moneyline
-119
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 26 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Doug Pederson
2nd · 11:30
PHI +9% win prob
(11:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett. Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at PHI 43 for 29 yards.
2nd · 2:00PHI +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-DK.Metcalf pushed ob at 50 for 26 yards (34-C.LeBlanc).
