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Tennessee Titans 20 at New England Patriots 13. Final.
Patriots -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Wild Card
Tennessee Titans 20, Patriots 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:54, 3rd and 8, on A.Firkser — 17.4 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:54 · 3rd and 8
A.Firkser
Titans
(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TEN 26 for 11 yards (25-T.Brooks).
U 45 ✓
Patriots closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, Titans +17.4% win probability on one snap.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.HarmonPatriotsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon ran ob at NE 41 for no gain. NE 21-Harmon 4th career postseason Int, ties Law for 3rd in franchise history.
10.9pts
L.RyanTitansQ4 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-M.Sanu Sr. INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (35-T.Brock) at NE 9. 26-L.Ryan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Patriots at 5 of 13 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Titans at 6 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Titans152 of 166 plays carry both curves
(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TEN 26 for 11 yards (25-T.Brooks).
Swing −17.4 for PatriotsExpected points −1.22 for PatriotsThe model had Titans 5 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:54NE +17% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TEN 26 for 11 yards (25-T.Brooks).
4th · 0:15TEN +15% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-M.Sanu Sr. INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (35-T.Brock) at NE 9. 26-L.Ryan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00TEN +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon ran ob at NE 41 for no gain. NE 21-Harmon 4th career postseason Int, ties Law for 3rd in franchise history.
4th · 4:51TEN +9% win prob(4:51) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to NE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
4th · 2:00NE +9% win prob(2:00) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 38 for 1 yard (70-A.Butler, 52-E.Roberts).
1st · 14:51NE +8% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-B.Watson to NE 46 for 21 yards (55-J.Brown). TEN-55-J.Brown was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:38 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:41N.Folk·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+30–3
2nd2:18N.Folk·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+37–13
2nd0:38D.Henry·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–13
4th0:15L.Ryan·9-yd defence TD9-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+620–13
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryPatriots
Titans5–4Patriots
272Total yards307
4.7Yards per play5.2
43%Success rate39%
50%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays8
19First downs17
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.10Patriots: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.12Patriots: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 58 snaps at a 31% dropback rate against Patriots’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Patriots 3.
NotePatriots outgained Titans 307-272 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected, −27.1 pts, sat 20.9 points below their season number of −6.2 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 3.7 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 26.7%, sat 22.7 points below their season number of 49.4% — they ran early by 2.2 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots27.8%
leaned — got home · +11.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -27.1 pts, 20.9 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 3.7 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jason McCourtyCBByron CowartDECody KesslerQBDamien HarrisRBJermaine EluemunorTKorey CunninghamTRyan IzzoTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jarrett StidhamQBJakobi MeyersWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-M.Sanu Sr. INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (35-T.Brock) at NE 9. 26-L.Ryan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:15 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 1 · gained nothing · -6.88 EP · −19.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 97 yards from the NE 1 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0567%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0621%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.0356%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2244%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0017%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.01100%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.060%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Titans0Patriots3
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Titans 18
Titans6Patriots3
Titans7Patriots3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Patriots 12
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Titans 7
2nd quarter50 plays
Titans7Patriots9
Titans7Patriots10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 22
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 47
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 17
Titans7Patriots13
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Titans 1
Titans13Patriots13
Titans14Patriots13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Patriots 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 48
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 43
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 37
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Patriots 38
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Patriots 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 32
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Titans 47
Punt14 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Patriots 34
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Patriots 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Punt14 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, two linebackers and eight backsRoute runHitchCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Titans20Patriots13
Touchdown1 play
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
