For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2019 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 4, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

20

New England Patriots

13

NE -4.5 upsetU 45 ✓

Tennessee Titans 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, NE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NETEN
Q4 · 2:54TEN NE TEN ball · 3rd & 8TEN 54%

(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TEN 26 for 11 yards (25-T.Brooks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:54NE +17% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TEN 26 for 11 yards (25-T.Brooks).
  2. Q4 · 0:15TEN +15% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-M.Sanu Sr. INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (35-T.Brock) at NE 9. 26-L.Ryan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 15:00TEN +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon ran ob at NE 41 for no gain. NE 21-Harmon 4th career postseason Int, ties Law for 3rd in franchise history.
  4. Q4 · 4:51TEN +9% win prob(4:51) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to NE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansPatriots
Offensive plays5859
Total yards272307 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.01 (edge)-0.10
Success rate43% (edge)39%
Dropback rate31%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.12
Third downs6/12 (edge)5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)17
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Patriots outgained Titans 307–272 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 259572:23Turnover on downs
2TENTEN 2514806:58Touchdown
3NENE 2512755:42Touchdown
4TENTEN 15571:35Punt
5NENE 247234:09Punt
6TENTEN 10471:13Punt
7NETEN 4710445:44Turnover on downs
8TENTEN 259751:41Touchdown
9NENE 257230:35Turnover on downs
10TENTEN 278163:37Punt
11NENE 137203:21Punt
12TENTEN 435-42:31Punt
13NENE 77323:01Punt
14TENTEN 205122:38Interception
15NENE 41572:07Punt
16TENTEN 2011468:01Punt
17NENE 115261:34Punt
18TENTEN 138332:55Punt
19NENE 1100:06Defensive touchdown
20NE100:09Fumble

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -4.5
Closing total
45
TEN moneyline
+190
NE moneyline
-214

Patriots closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 33 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
44°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
TEN 6 days · NE 6 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Bill Belichick