For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Houston Texans 31 at Kansas City Chiefs 51. Final.
Chiefs -10 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs 51, Texans 31 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 8:05 — 21.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:05
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to HOU 0. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 21 yards (49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (49-D.Sorensen), RECOVERED by KC-34-D.Thompson at HOU 24. 34-D.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 6 for 18 yards (35-K.Crossen).
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.
Kansas City Chiefs 51–31 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:05, Chiefs +21.5% win probability on one snap.
21.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ1 2:20(2:20) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-35-K.Crossen at KC 6.
17.5pts
Dam.WilliamsChiefsQ2 10:00(10:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Texans at 8 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Texans at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 7 touchdowns on 9 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans183 of 193 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 8:05Texans 24 — Chiefs 14HOU ballHOU 54%
Texans 54%Chiefs 46%
7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to HOU 0. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 21 yards (49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (49-D.Sorensen), RECOVERED by KC-34-D.Thompson at HOU 24. 34-D.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 6 for 18 yards (35-K.Cro
Swing +21.5 for ChiefsExpected points +6.59 for ChiefsThe model had Texans 24 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:05HOU +22% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to HOU 0. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 21 yards (49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (49-D.Sorensen), RECOVERED by KC-34-D.Thompson at HOU 24. 34-D.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 6 for 18 yards (35-K.Crossen).
2nd · 10:00KC +19% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:20KC +17% win prob(2:20) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-35-K.Crossen at KC 6.
1st · 10:13HOU +12% win prob(10:13) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-B.Mingo, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by HOU-32-L.Johnson at KC 10. 32-L.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:07KC +11% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-K.Stills for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:58KC +9% win prob(10:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Kelce's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th8:10H.Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+331–51
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans2–7Chiefs
442Total yards437
5.7Yards per play8.1
44%Success rate48%
33%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns7
8Explosive plays13
22First downs25
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Texans: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.57Chiefs: +0.57 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Texans: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.15Chiefs: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 77 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 54 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Chiefs 9.
NoteTexans outgained Chiefs 442-437 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected, +19.2 pts, sat 11.4 points above their season number of +7.8 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.6 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs13.6%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 19.2 pts, 11.4 points above their season mean of 7.8 pts and 2.6 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-K.Stills for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:07 · Texans · 3rd & 1 at HOU 46 · gained 54 · +5.12 EP · +17.9% win probability
181 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
876
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0979%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2469%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0973%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.7078%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3820%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2320%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Texans3 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Texans6Chiefs0
Texans7Chiefs0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 46
Texans13Chiefs0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 25
Texans14Chiefs0
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Texans 45
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Chiefs 49
Texans20Chiefs0
Texans21Chiefs0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Chiefs 44
2nd quarter55 plays
Texans24Chiefs0
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 13
Texans24Chiefs6
Texans24Chiefs7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 17
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Texans24Chiefs13
Texans24Chiefs14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Texans24Chiefs20
Texans24Chiefs21
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Texans24Chiefs27
Texans24Chiefs28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Texans 5
No good6 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Chiefs 33
3rd quarter40 plays
Texans24Chiefs34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 31
Texans24Chiefs40
Texans24Chiefs41
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Texans 5
Texans30Chiefs41
Texans31Chiefs41
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Texans31Chiefs47
Texans31Chiefs48
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 8
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 42
Texans31Chiefs51
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Texans 6
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 42
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 45
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Chiefs 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -10
Closing total
50.5
Texans moneyline
+376
Chiefs moneyline
-461
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 82 — over by 31.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Texans 8 days · Chiefs 14 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Andy Reid
2nd · 8:23KC +7% win prob(8:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 87-T.Kelce. PENALTY on HOU-32-L.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at HOU 33 - No Play.
2nd · 8:32HOU +6% win prob(8:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-J.Reid. 20-J.Reid right end to HOU 33 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans6
Chiefs0
