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Minnesota Vikings 10 at San Francisco 49ers 27. Final.
49ers -7 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers 27, Vikings 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:49, 1st and 10, on E.Kendricks — 8.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:49 · 1st and 10
E.Kendricks
Vikings
(2:49) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at SF 33. 54-E.Kendricks to SF 29 for 4 yards (19-D.Samuel).
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
San Francisco 49ers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:49, Vikings +8.1% win probability on one snap.
8.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.DiggsVikingsQ1 5:30(5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 19. 19-yac
7.1pts
K.Bourne49ersQ1 2:07(2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 84-K.Bourne to MIN 36 for 16 yards (34-A.Sendejo) [99-D.Hunter]. Caught at MIN 36. 0-yac
6.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.49 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.45 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Vikings145 of 155 plays carry both curves
(2:49) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at SF 33. 54-E.Kendricks to SF 29 for 4 yards (19-D.Samuel).
Swing −8.1 for 49ersExpected points −4.14 for 49ersThe model had Vikings 8 points higher than the market did.play 65
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:49MIN +8% win prob(2:49) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at SF 33. 54-E.Kendricks to SF 29 for 4 yards (19-D.Samuel).
1st · 5:30SF +7% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 19. 19-yac
1st · 2:07SF +6% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 84-K.Bourne to MIN 36 for 16 yards (34-A.Sendejo) [99-D.Hunter]. Caught at MIN 36. 0-yac
2nd · 11:39SF +6% win prob(11:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to MIN 41 for 14 yards (55-A.Barr; 29-X.Rhodes). Caught at MIN 44. 3-yac
3rd · 14:32SF +6% win prob(14:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to MIN 37 for 21 yards (29-X.Rhodes). Caught at MIN 40. 3-yac
2nd · 0:36SF +5% win prob(:36) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Coleman's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:13 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th14:17R.Gould·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+310–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by category49ers
Vikings1–849ers
147Total yards310
3.3Yards per play4.7
24%Success rate52%
17%Third-down rate42%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays5
6First downs22
6Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Vikings: −0.45 expected points added per play
−0.0149ers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.44Vikings: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.0349ers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Vikings: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.0049ers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 45 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against 49ers’s 66 at 32%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 2, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
49ers25.7%
leaned — got home · +10.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.2%, 27.2 points above their season mean of 47.0% and 1.9 times their own 14.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Josh KlineG · Every snap100%46 snaps
65Pat ElfleinG · Every snap100%46 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%46 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%46 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%46 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time89%41 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time87%40 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Full-time83%38 snaps
81Bisi JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation70%32 snaps
82Kyle RudolphTE · Heavy rotation70%32 snaps
84Irv SmithTE · Heavy rotation63%29 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Heavy rotation54%25 snaps
69Rashod HillT · Rotational46%21 snaps
31Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational13%6 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational9%4 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Situational7%3 snaps
11Laquon TreadwellWR · Situational7%3 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eddie YarbroughDEHercules Mata'afaDEDru SamiaGJayron KearseSSAviante CollinsTOli UdohTAlexander HollinsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 19. 19-yac
Q1 5:30 · Vikings · 3rd & 2 at SF 41 · gained 41 · +4.61 EP · +12.8% win probability
144 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 79 yards from the MIN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
455
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.0825%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.7378%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.1063%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17-0.3712%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3091%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Vikings049ers6
Vikings049ers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Vikings 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Vikings649ers7
Vikings749ers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the 49ers 41
The period ended14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 36
2nd quarter37 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays
Vikings749ers13
Vikings749ers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 47
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 19
Vikings1049ers14
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the 49ers 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Vikings1049ers17
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Vikings 17
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 34
Vikings1049ers23
Vikings1049ers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Vikings 2
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 8
4th quarter44 plays
Vikings1049ers27
Field goal2 plays, from the Vikings 4 to the Vikings 3
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 36
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 20
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 44 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 49
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the 49ers 40
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the 49ers 49
Turnover on downs6 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 33
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7
Closing total
44.5
Vikings moneyline
+276
49ers moneyline
-323
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Vikings 6 days · 49ers 13 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Kyle Shanahan
1st · 1:18MIN +5% win prob(1:18) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at MIN 45 for -9 yards (99-D.Hunter).
3rd · 9:56MIN +4% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Sherman at MIN 42. 25-R.Sherman to MIN 29 for 13 yards (19-A.Thielen). MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-97-N.Bosa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 29.
