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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 12, 2020 · Lambeau Field
Final
SeahawksSeattle23
BY 5final margin
PackersGreen Bay28
Seattle Seahawks 23 at Green Bay Packers 28. Final.
Packers -4.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers 28, Seahawks 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:19, 3rd and 8, on D.Adams — 9.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:19 · 3rd and 8
D.Adams
Packers
(2:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at SEA 46 for 32 yards (28-U.Amadi).
24°F
Packers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Green Bay Packers 28–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:19, Packers +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.JonesPackersQ2 9:55(9:55) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7.2pts
R.WilsonPackersQ4 3:22(3:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 36 for -6 yards (91-P.Smith).
7.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 9 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Seahawks156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(2:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at SEA 46 for 32 yards (28-U.Amadi).
Swing +9.5 for PackersExpected points +2.56 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:19GB +10% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at SEA 46 for 32 yards (28-U.Amadi).
4th · 3:22SEA +8% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 36 for -6 yards (91-P.Smith).
2nd · 9:55GB +7% win prob(9:55) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:19GB +7% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-G.Allison to GB 38 for 11 yards (21-T.Flowers).
4th · 6:27SEA +7% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 48 for -8 yards (49-Sm.Griffin).
1st · 10:42GB +6% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:51GB +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Adams's 20-yard touchdown catch with 10:42 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:42D.Adams·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Rodgersfrom A.RodgersLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:33J.Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–7
4th9:37M.Lynch·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+623–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryPackers
Seahawks4–3Packers
375Total yards346
6.3Yards per play6.2
53%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate69%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays7
24First downs19
5Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Seahawks: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.27Packers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Seahawks: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.49Packers: +0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Seahawks: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 60 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Packers’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected, +9.1 pts, sat 11.8 points above their season number of −2.7 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +6.6 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Packers23.3%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.1 pts, 11.8 points above their season mean of -2.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:42 · Packers · 3rd & 7 at SEA 20 · gained 20 · +3.26 EP · +8.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 84 yards from the SEA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
45%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1361%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.1044%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.5669%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.5150%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Seahawks0Packers6
Seahawks0Packers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Seahawks 16
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 12
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 42
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 23
Seahawks3Packers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Packers 26
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Seahawks3Packers13
Seahawks3Packers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Seahawks 1
No good9 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Packers 28
Seahawks3Packers20
Seahawks3Packers21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Packers 43
3rd quarter37 plays
Seahawks9Packers21
Seahawks10Packers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Packers 1
Seahawks10Packers27
Seahawks10Packers28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks16Packers28
Seahawks17Packers28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Packers 7
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays
Seahawks23Packers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Packers 1
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Seahawks 40
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 42
The period ended14 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Seahawks 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
