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2019 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 11, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee28
BY 16final margin
RavensBaltimore12
Tennessee Titans 28 at Baltimore Ravens 12. Final.
Ravens -10 upset
The verdict · 2019 Divisional Round
Tennessee Titans 28, Ravens 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:37, 3rd and 1, on D.Henry — 14.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:37 · 3rd and 1
D.Henry
Titans
(8:37) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 06 for 66 yards (24-M.Peters).
14.3
U 47.5 ✓
Ravens closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 28–12. Biggest swing: Q3 8:37, Titans +14.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.BrownRavensQ2 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown to TEN 04 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker).
12.7pts
L.JacksonTitansQ3 10:01(10:01) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 18 for no gain (58-H.Landry).
13.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Titans175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(8:37) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 06 for 66 yards (24-M.Peters).
Swing −14.3 for RavensExpected points −4.93 for RavensThe model had Titans 19 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:37BAL +14% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 06 for 66 yards (24-M.Peters).
3rd · 10:01TEN +14% win prob(10:01) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 18 for no gain (58-H.Landry).
2nd · 0:18BAL +13% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown to TEN 04 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 8:02TEN +13% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 19. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at 50 for 31 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
2nd · 1:43BAL +12% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 11-S.Roberts to BAL 35 for 26 yards (31-K.Byard; 26-L.Ryan).
2nd · 14:53BAL +9% win prob(14:53) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Smith's 12-yard touchdown catch with 3:42 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:42J.Smith·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Tannehillfrom R.TannehillLead never changed again+77–0
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Titans: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.15Ravens: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Titans: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Titans: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.28Ravens: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 51 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Ravens’s 92 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens outgained Titans 530-302 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 76.8%, sat 33.0 points above their season number of 43.8% — they passed early by 3.4 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
69 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 23.7%, sat 25.7 points below their season number of 49.4% — they ran early by 2.5 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 9 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 71 dropbacks
Ravens23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.8%, 33.0 points above their season mean of 43.8% and 3.4 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Anthony AverettCBIman MarshallDBBen PowersGTrace McSorleyQBJordan RichardsSSAndre SmithTJaleel ScottWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Hroniss GrasuCRobert Griffin IIIQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 19. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at 50 for 31 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
Q1 8:02 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at TEN 36 · gained nothing · -6.86 EP · −22.0% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
830
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72+0.0474%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.0950%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4815%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0860%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2029%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0817%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.8120%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.8020%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Titans 36
Titans6Ravens0
Titans7Ravens0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 41
2nd quarter53 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Titans13Ravens0
Titans14Ravens0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 28
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 41
Titans14Ravens3
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Titans 29
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 19 to midfield
Titans14Ravens6
Field goal18 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Titans 4
3rd quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Titans 18
Titans20Ravens6
Titans21Ravens6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Ravens 3
Fumble lost2 plays
Titans27Ravens6
Titans28Ravens6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 1
Intercepted11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Titans 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Ravens 44
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Titans28Ravens12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Titans 15
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 45
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Titans 16
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 21
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Titans 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -10
Closing total
47.5
Titans moneyline
+361
Ravens moneyline
-439
Ravens closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Titans 7 days · Ravens 13 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs John Harbaugh
3rd · 6:54
TEN +9% win prob
(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 19 for -6 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey) [99-J.Casey], RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at BAL 20. 98-J.Simmons to BAL 20 for no gain (79-R.Stanley).
2nd · 5:07BAL +8% win prob(5:07) 22-D.Henry left guard pushed ob at TEN 46 for 27 yards (29-E.Thomas III).
