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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 20 at San Francisco 49ers 37. Final.
49ers -8 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers 37, Packers 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:01, 3rd and 8, on R.Mostert — 6.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:01 · 3rd and 8
R.Mostert
49ers
(6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.9
49ers closed -8 and covered, winning by 17.
San Francisco 49ers 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:01, 49ers +6.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.Samuel49ersQ1 8:12(8:12) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 19-D.Samuel to GB 38 for 30 yards (26-D.Savage). Caught at SF 48. 14-yac
4.5pts
J.GaroppoloPackersQ1 0:40(:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at GB 36 for -8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
3.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.39 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Packers148 of 161 plays carry both curves
(6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.9 for 49ersExpected points +4.49 for 49ersThe model had Packers 18 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:01SF +7% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:12SF +4% win prob(8:12) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 19-D.Samuel to GB 38 for 30 yards (26-D.Savage). Caught at SF 48. 14-yac
1st · 0:40GB +4% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at GB 36 for -8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
1st · 9:33SF +4% win prob(9:33) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 27 for 16 yards (26-D.Savage). Caught at SF 9. 18-yac
1st · 3:17GB +4% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 29 for -13 yards (97-N.Bosa).
2nd · 5:45GB +3% win prob(5:45) 12-A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 25, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at SF 25. 99-D.Buckner to SF 25 for no gain (80-J.Graham).
1st · 6:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Mostert's 36-yard rushing touchdown with 6:01 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:01R.Mostert·36-yd TD run36-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd15:00R.Gould·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+30–10
4th3:36R.Gould·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+320–37
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by category49ers
Packers3–649ers
358Total yards357
6.1Yards per play7.4
51%Success rate52%
33%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays10
21First downs16
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Packers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.3149ers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.0449ers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Packers: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.3949ers: +0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against 49ers’s 48 at 19%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, 49ers 5.
NotePackers outgained 49ers 358-357 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected, −30.0 pts, sat 24.1 points below their season number of −5.9 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 3.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 17.9%, sat 29.0 points below their season number of 47.0% — they ran early by 2.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 19 pts
Only 9 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.6%.
49ers7.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -30.0 pts, 24.1 points below their season mean of -5.9 pts and 3.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Mostert left+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:01 · 49ers · 3rd & 8 at GB 36 · gained 36 · +4.49 EP · +11.1% win probability
146 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 92 yards from the GB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1176%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.4321%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17-0.0212%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.5927%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2071%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2160%
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers049ers6
Packers049ers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the Packers 32
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 42
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Packers 28
2nd quarter49 plays
Packers049ers10
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 31
Packers049ers16
Packers049ers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Packers 9
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 25
Packers049ers20
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 9
Intercepted5 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Packers 27
Packers049ers26
Packers049ers27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 26
3rd quarter35 plays
Packers649ers27
Packers749ers27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 9
Packers749ers33
Packers749ers34
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Packers 22
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 47
4th quarter45 plays
Packers1349ers34
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the 49ers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Packers 39
Packers1949ers34
Packers2049ers34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 8 to the 49ers 8
Packers2049ers37
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Packers 23
Intercepted7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
