2019 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 19, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -7.5 ✓O 51 ✓Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Kansas City Chiefs 35–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:23, KC +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:23TEN — KC KC ball · 2nd & 10KC 70%

(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:23KC +10% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:18KC +8% win prob(14:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to KC 29 for 37 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q2 · 9:29KC +7% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis to KC 15 for 10 yards (21-B.Breeland). PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play.
Q1 · 0:51KC +6% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Chiefs
Offensive plays	57	62
Total yards	296	407 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13	0.35 (edge)
Success rate	42%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	3/10	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	17	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 30	9	58	3:31	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 21	5	0	1:30	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 42	10	48	4:07	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 26	12	69	5:06	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	17	74	9:07	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 37	7	58	2:36	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	5	7	2:12	Punt
8	KC	KC 14	10	86	1:40	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 28	2	0	0:11	End of half
10	KC	KC 10	12	37	3:59	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 21	7	21	4:03	Punt
12	KC	KC 27	14	73	7:08	Touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 25	6	10	2:56	Punt
14	KC	KC 12	8	88	4:21	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 20	10	80	3:15	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 19	7	-4	2:10	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 20	5	-2	0:48	Turnover on downs
18	KC	TEN 18	2	0	1:20	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 51
TEN moneyline: +286
KC moneyline: -337

Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 51; the game landed 59 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: TEN 8 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Andy Reid