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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 9:09 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Tennessee Titans 24 at Kansas City Chiefs 35. Final.
Chiefs -7.5 ✓O 51 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Titans 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:23, 2nd and 10, on P.Mahomes — 10.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
20°F
Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Kansas City Chiefs 35–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:23, Chiefs +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:23 · 2nd and 10
P.Mahomes
Chiefs
(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.BrownTitansQ1 14:18(14:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to KC 29 for 37 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
8.3pts
C.DavisTitansQ2 9:29(9:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis to KC 15 for 10 yards (21-B.Breeland). PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play.
7.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 10 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Titans at +0.13 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.19 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Titans164 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.0 for ChiefsExpected points +4.08 for ChiefsThe model had Titans 11 points higher than the market did.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:23KC +10% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:18KC +8% win prob(14:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to KC 29 for 37 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
2nd · 9:29KC +7% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis to KC 15 for 10 yards (21-B.Breeland). PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play.
1st · 0:51KC +6% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:27KC +6% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 45 for 18 yards (25-A.Jackson).
1st · 2:58KC +5% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 24 for 4 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 44-K.Correa).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Mahomes's 27-yard rushing touchdown with 0:23 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:33G.Joseph·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Titans: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.35Chiefs: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Titans: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.51Chiefs: +0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.01Chiefs: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 57 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2019 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chiefs10.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.5 pts, 5.7 points above their season mean of 7.8 pts and 1.3 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes scrambles+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:23 · Chiefs · 2nd & 10 at TEN 27 · gained 27 · +4.08 EP · +12.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 88 yards from the KC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
49%
Yards
699
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.6167%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0571%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0350%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3336%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0333%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Titans3Chiefs0
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Chiefs 12
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 23
Titans9Chiefs0
Titans10Chiefs0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Chiefs 4
Titans10Chiefs6
Titans10Chiefs7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Titans 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
2nd quarter44 plays
Titans16Chiefs7
Titans17Chiefs7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Chiefs 1
Titans17Chiefs13
Titans17Chiefs14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Titans 20
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThree
Titans17Chiefs20
Titans17Chiefs21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Titans 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 47
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 41
The period ended12 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Titans 18
4th quarter48 plays
Titans17Chiefs27
Titans17Chiefs28
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Titans17Chiefs34
Titans17Chiefs35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 40
Titans23Chiefs35
Titans24Chiefs35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Chiefs 20
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Titans 35
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
