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Arizona Cardinals 24 at San Francisco 49ers 20. Final.
49ers -7 upsetU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Arizona Cardinals 24, 49ers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:37, 4th and 5, on Jimmy Garoppolo — 43.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:37 · 4th and 5
Jimmy Garoppolo
Cardinals
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:37, Cardinals +43.7% win probability on one snap.
43.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayCardinalsQ4 10:35(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.9pts
DeAndre HopkinsCardinalsQ4 5:27(5:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to SF 1 for 33 yards (29-J.Tartt). ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC
20.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 1 giveaway.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).
Swing −43.7 for 49ersExpected points −2.54 for 49ersThe model had Cardinals 6 points higher than the market did.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:37ARI +44% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).
4th · 5:27SF +20% win prob(5:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to SF 1 for 33 yards (29-J.Tartt). ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC
4th · 10:35SF +19% win prob(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:42SF +16% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 28-J.McKinnon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. caught at AZ 4, 4 YAC
4th · 9:37SF +14% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 28-J.McKinnon INTERCEPTED by 31-C.Banjo [94-Z.Allen] at ARI 10. 31-C.Banjo ran ob at ARI 10 for no gain. PENALTY on ARI-58-J.Hicks, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at ARI 37 - No Play.
2nd · 2:41
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenyan Drake's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:07 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:56Robbie Gould·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+30–3
1st10:05Raheem Mostert·76-yd TD catch76-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–10
4th8:42Jerick McKinnon·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+717–20
4th5:07Kenyan Drake·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals6–349ers
413Total yards366
5.5Yards per play6.0
47%Success rate48%
57%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays5
26First downs16
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.0249ers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.1549ers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 75 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against 49ers’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, 49ers 5.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
49ers6.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 6.1% against a season mean of 12.1% — and SF swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).
Q4 0:37 · 49ers · 4th & 5 at ARI 16 · gained nothing · -2.54 EP · −38.4% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 94 yards from the ARI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
770
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1858%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.3150%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2446%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.6282%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.3070%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4475%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0529%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Cardinals049ers3
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 34
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cardinals049ers9
Cardinals049ers10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 36
Cardinals649ers10
Cardinals749ers10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 24
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Cardinals 19
2nd quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 1
No good13 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the 49ers 34
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Cardinals 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 42
Cardinals749ers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 6
Cardinals1049ers13
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 38
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
No good14 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the 49ers 31
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the 49ers 48
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 23
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Cardinals1649ers13
Cardinals1749ers13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 41 to the 49ers 22
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Cardinals1749ers19
Cardinals1749ers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Cardinals 5
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cardinals2349ers20
Cardinals2449ers20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 16
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7
Closing total
48.5
Cardinals moneyline
+242
49ers moneyline
-280
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 44 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
ARI +13% win prob
(2:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 87-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Tartt (57-D.Greenlaw) at ARI 42. 29-J.Tartt to ARI 26 for 16 yards (10-D.Hopkins).
3rd · 11:37SF +11% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at SF 31 for 25 yards (25-R.Sherman).
4th · 10:20SF +11% win prob(10:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk to ARI 37 for 41 yards (32-B.Baker; 43-H.Reddick). caught at SF 40, 23 YAC
