2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -7 upsetU 48.5 ✓49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:37, ARI +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:37ARI — SF SF ball · 4th & 5ARI 52%

(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:37ARI +44% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Taylor (33-B.Murphy).
Q4 · 5:27SF +20% win prob(5:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to SF 1 for 33 yards (29-J.Tartt). ARI-74-D.Humphries was injured during the play. Caught SF 27, 26-YAC
Q4 · 10:35SF +19% win prob(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:42SF +16% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 28-J.McKinnon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. caught at AZ 4, 4 YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	75	61
Total yards	413 (edge)	366
Yards per play	5.5	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.05
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

19/33, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.4 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

26/40, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

13 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

10.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kenyan DrakeRB

16 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

14/16 for 151 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Raheem MostertRB

4/5 for 95 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	7	26	3:10	Turnover on downs
2	ARI	ARI 25	7	20	1:45	Punt
3	SF	SF 24	2	76	0:12	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 25	5	3	1:22	Punt
5	SF	SF 31	4	5	1:26	Punt
6	ARI	SF 10	2	10	0:10	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 25	5	7	1:38	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 22	5	11	1:16	Punt
9	SF	SF 38	10	66	6:31	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 1	13	65	5:02	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 42	6	22	2:12	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 14	5	28	2:47	Interception
13	SF	ARI 26	6	20	1:59	Turnover on downs
14	ARI	ARI 25	7	37	0:30	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 37	12	57	5:11	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 39	4	-2	1:39	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 12	7	25	2:27	Punt
18	SF	SF 7	9	36	3:29	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 6	15	71	6:48	Touchdown
20	SF	SF 22	8	51	1:48	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 25	11	75	3:35	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 25	13	59	4:30	Turnover on downs
23	ARI	ARI 16	4	11	0:33	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	26/40	230	1	1	2	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	13	91	7.0	1	10.4
Kenyan Drake	16	60	3.8	1	-0.1
Chase Edmonds	6	26	4.3	0	-1.7
Chris Streveler	1	3	3.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	14	16	151	0	43%	10.1
Larry Fitzgerald	4	5	34	0	14%	1.4
Dan Arnold	2	2	21	0	5%	1.3
Chase Edmonds	3	5	19	1	14%	-0.8
Kenyan Drake	2	2	5	0	5%	-1.0
Maxx Williams	0	2	0	0	5%	-5.8
Christian Kirk	1	5	0	0	14%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	9	5	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	5	2	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	4	2	0.0	0
Chris Banjo	3	3	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	0.0	1
Isaiah Simmons	3	0	0.0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	0.0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	0	1.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	1	1	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	0	2	0.0	2

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	19/33	259	2	0	3	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Raheem Mostert	15	56	3.7	-5.9
Jerick McKinnon	3	24	8.0	1.6
Tevin Coleman	4	18	4.5	-0.4
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	9	9.0	0.4
George Kittle	1	9	9.0	0.8
Kyle Juszczyk	1	7	7.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Raheem Mostert	4	5	95	1	16%	6.7
George Kittle	4	5	44	0	16%	2.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	41	0	6%	2.2
Kendrick Bourne	2	5	34	0	16%	1.6
Jerick McKinnon	3	5	20	1	16%	1.0
Jordan Reed	2	2	12	0	6%	0.3
Trent Taylor	2	5	7	0	16%	-6.6
Tevin Coleman	1	2	6	0	6%	-1.5
Dante Pettis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Emmanuel Moseley	9	5	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	5	4	0.0	0	1
Kwon Alexander	6	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	2	3	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jimmie Ward	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jaquiski Tartt	3	1	0.0	1	1
Richard Sherman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	3	0	1.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -7
Closing total: 48.5
ARI moneyline: +242
SF moneyline: -280

49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 44 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.