2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Ford Field

Chicago BearsWinner

Detroit Lions

DET -2.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓DomeLions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, CHI +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:06CHI — DET DET ball · 3rd & 10CHI 71%

(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:06CHI +29% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).
Q4 · 0:28DET +22% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 80-D.Amendola to CHI 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
Q4 · 2:45CHI +21% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller (33-J.Johnson) at DET 42. 23-K.Fuller to DET 37 for 5 yards (88-T.Hockenson).
Q4 · 2:00DET +19% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Lions
Offensive plays	65	71
Total yards	363	426 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	51% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	60%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	2/11	6/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Lions outgained Bears 426–363 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

24/42, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.0 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

20/36, 242 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

14 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

13 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Danny AmendolaWR

5/7 for 81 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Anthony MillerWR

4/6 for 76 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	5	9	1:42	Punt
2	DET	DET 21	5	1	1:20	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 25	7	41	3:01	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 35	5	19	2:27	Turnover on downs
5	DET	CHI 25	10	57	5:00	Turnover on downs
6	DET	DET 25	8	42	2:30	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 12	8	27	3:16	Punt
8	DET	DET 13	12	88	5:11	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	CHI 23	9	55	3:31	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 25	5	9	0:57	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 11	4	3	0:25	Punt
12	DET	CHI 48	5	48	0:21	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 28	2	7	0:19	End of half
14	DET	DET 28	10	65	4:23	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	7	23	3:08	Punt
16	DET	DET 10	8	48	4:10	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 41	13	59	4:40	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 32	8	13	2:55	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 25	5	-6	2:18	Punt
20	DET	DET 33	8	30	4:24	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	CHI 45	6	55	1:04	Touchdown
22	DET	DET 25	4	5	0:23	Interception
23	CHI	DET 37	3	32	0:41	Touchdown
24	DET	DET 25	12	59	1:54	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 88 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	20/36	242	3	0	1	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	13	64	4.9	1.7
Tarik Cohen	7	41	5.9	1.4
Mitchell Trubisky	3	26	8.7	0.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	19	4.8	2.0
Allen Robinson	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Anthony Miller	4	6	76	1	17%	6.6
Allen Robinson	5	9	74	0	25%	1.0
Darnell Mooney	3	3	38	0	8%	1.9
Jimmy Graham	3	7	25	1	19%	-0.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	12	0	3%	0.7
David Montgomery	1	3	10	0	8%	-0.6
Tarik Cohen	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.5
Javon Wims	1	2	1	1	6%	-0.1
Cole Kmet	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Ted Ginn	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.2
Demetrius Harris	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	5	2	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	5	2	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	1	0.0	0	3
Akiem Hicks	4	1	1.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	2	2	0.0	0	0
Barkevious Mingo	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	2	1	0.0	1	1
Buster Skrine	2	1	0.0	0	2

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/42	297	1	1	1	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	14	93	6.6	0	0.3
Matthew Stafford	5	23	4.6	0	-0.7
Kerryon Johnson	7	14	2.0	0	-3.4
D'Andre Swift	3	8	2.7	1	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	5	7	81	0	17%	6.3
T.J. Hockenson	5	5	56	1	12%	4.9
Marvin Jones	4	8	55	0	20%	-4.5
Quintez Cephus	3	10	43	0	24%	-1.7
Marvin Hall	1	2	26	0	5%	1.0
Adrian Peterson	3	3	21	0	7%	0.5
D'Andre Swift	3	5	15	0	12%	-1.5
Jamal Agnew	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tracy Walker III	6	1	0.0	1
Jarrad Davis	2	3	0.0	0
Will Harris	5	0	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	4	1	0.0	0
Trey Flowers	4	1	1.0	0
Tony McRae	4	0	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	3	1	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	4	0	0.0	0
Danny Shelton	2	1	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
CHI moneyline: +116
DET moneyline: -128

Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CHI 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt Patricia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.