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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 27, Lions 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:06, 3rd and 10, on Matthew Stafford — 28.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 3rd and 10
Matthew Stafford
Bears
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Bears +28.8% win probability on one snap.
28.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle FullerBearsQ4 2:45(2:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller (33-J.Johnson) at DET 42. 23-K.Fuller to DET 37 for 5 yards (88-T.Hockenson).
21.3pts
Danny AmendolaLionsQ4 0:28(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 80-D.Amendola to CHI 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
21.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Bears at 7 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 16 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 11 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.11 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears181 of 193 plays carry both curves
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).
Swing −28.8 for LionsExpected points −2.55 for LionsThe model had Lions 8 points higher than the market did.play 192
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:06CHI +29% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).
4th · 0:28DET +22% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 80-D.Amendola to CHI 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
4th · 2:45CHI +21% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller (33-J.Johnson) at DET 42. 23-K.Fuller to DET 37 for 5 yards (88-T.Hockenson).
4th · 2:00DET +19% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:18DET +10% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones to CHI 29 for 21 yards (39-E.Jackson).
4th · 0:41CHI +9% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 32-D.Swift to CHI 48 for 3 yards (33-J.Johnson; 58-R.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Anthony Miller's 27-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:34Matt Prater·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+30–3
1st1:34Cairo Santos·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–3
2nd5:37Matt Prater·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+33–6
2nd2:06Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+36–6
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.11Lions: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 65 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Lions’s 71 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Lions 6.
NoteLions outgained Bears 426-363 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Lions12.8%
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.9 points below their season mean of 31.9% and 1.1 times their own 30.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones (33-J.Johnson).
Q4 0:06 · Lions · 3rd & 10 at CHI 16 · gained nothing · -2.55 EP · −36.9% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 73 yards from the DET 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1371%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1568%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4525%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0027%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.0550%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.5157%
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
Drive ended4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 37
Turnover on downs2 plays
Punt1 play
The period ended1 play
Drive ended2 plays, from the Lions 35 to midfield
Drive ended2 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 11
Bears0Lions3
Field goal3 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
Drive ended3 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Lions 35
Bears3Lions3
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 17
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Lions 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears3Lions6
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Bears 14
Bears6Lions6
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Lions 10
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 14
Bears6Lions12
Bears6Lions13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Bears6Lions19
Bears6Lions20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Bears 4
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 48
Bears6Lions23
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Bears 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Lions 13
4th quarter61 plays
Bears12Lions23
Bears13Lions23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 2
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 47
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 38
No good8 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Bears 33
Bears19Lions23
Bears20Lions23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Lions 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears26Lions23
Bears27Lions23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Lions 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
42.5
Bears moneyline
+116
Lions moneyline
-128
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bears 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Matt Patricia
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 9:06
DET +9% win prob
(9:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 80-D.Amendola to 50 for 18 yards (59-D.Trevathan; 39-E.Jackson).
2nd · 3:19DET +8% win prob(3:19) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 11-D.Mooney ran ob at DET 23 for 19 yards (21-T.Walker). PENALTY on DET-23-D.Trufant, Face Mask (15 Yards), 12 yards, enforced at DET 23. Penalty on DET-23-D.Trufant, Defensive Holding, declined.
