2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -7 ✓U 47 ✓Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.

Baltimore Ravens 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, CLE +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00CLE — BAL BAL ball · 3rd & 1BAL 90%

(15:00) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to CLE 7 for no gain (65-L.Ogunjobi). FUMBLES (65-L.Ogunjobi), touched at CLE 8, RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at CLE 12. 95-M.Garrett to CLE 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00CLE +8% win prob(15:00) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to CLE 7 for no gain (65-L.Ogunjobi). FUMBLES (65-L.Ogunjobi), touched at CLE 8, RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at CLE 12. 95-M.Garrett to CLE 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Q2 · 11:11BAL +6% win prob(11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to BAL 44 for 9 yards (22-J.Smith) [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.
Q1 · 6:17CLE +6% win prob(6:17) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan right end to CLE 29 for -2 yards (58-L.Fort). FUMBLES (58-L.Fort), touched at CLE 29, RECOVERED by BAL-41-A.Levine at CLE 27. 41-A.Levine to CLE 26 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge). Fake Punt.
Q1 · 2:50BAL +5% win prob(2:50) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to BAL 2 for 22 yards (48-P.Queen; 36-C.Clark).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Ravens
Offensive plays	67	57
Total yards	307	382 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	37%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.56 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

20/25, 275 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.7 expected points added · +21.0% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

21/39, 189 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

13 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

10 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

5/6 for 101 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

4/4 for 64 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	7	22	2:41	Interception
2	BAL	CLE 49	9	46	4:38	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	5	4	1:33	Fumble
4	BAL	CLE 26	4	3	1:30	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	2:57	Touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 37	5	55	1:47	Fumble
7	CLE	CLE 12	14	38	6:13	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 1	11	99	5:48	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 25	8	52	2:12	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 31	8	69	0:35	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 42	5	-4	1:37	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 14	8	5	2:12	Punt
14	BAL	50	7	50	3:23	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 25	11	38	4:47	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 42	5	13	2:19	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 8	2	14	0:42	Fumble
18	BAL	CLE 20	5	20	2:00	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 25	8	32	2:54	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 48	4	8	2:16	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 25	7	27	3:45	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 26	6	23	4:05	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/39	189	1	1	2	-10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	13	72	5.5	2.4
Nick Chubb	10	60	6.0	-4.9
D'Ernest Johnson	1	5	5.0	0.1
Baker Mayfield	2	3	1.5	-0.0
Jamie Gillan	1	-2	-2.0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	5	6	61	0	17%	5.5
David Njoku	3	3	50	1	9%	6.0
Odell Beckham	3	10	22	0	29%	-8.6
Austin Hooper	2	2	15	0	6%	3.1
KhaDarel Hodge	1	3	12	0	9%	-4.1
Kareem Hunt	4	6	9	0	17%	-2.9
Rashard Higgins	1	1	9	0	3%	0.6
Nick Chubb	1	1	6	0	3%	0.8
Harrison Bryant	1	2	5	0	6%	-1.5
Stephen Carlson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
B.J. Goodson	5	4	0.0
Sione Takitaki	5	2	0.0
Karl Joseph	3	2	0.0
Tavierre Thomas	3	1	1.0
Terrance Mitchell	3	1	0.0
Andrew Sendejo	4	0	0.0
Larry Ogunjobi	3	0	0.0
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0
Sheldrick Redwine	1	1	0.0
Jacob Phillips	1	1	0.0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	20/25	275	3	0	2	14.7
Robert Griffin	1/1	9	0	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	7	45	6.4	0	3.9
Mark Ingram	10	29	2.9	0	-2.0
J.K. Dobbins	7	22	3.1	2	0.9
Gus Edwards	4	17	4.3	0	0.4
Robert Griffin	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Patrick Ricard	1	-1	-1.0	0	-5.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	5	6	101	0	24%	4.7
Willie Snead	4	4	64	1	16%	5.4
Mark Andrews	5	6	58	2	24%	8.7
Miles Boykin	3	4	37	0	16%	0.1
Devin Duvernay	1	1	12	0	4%	1.3
Patrick Ricard	1	1	9	0	4%	0.9
Nick Boyle	2	3	3	0	12%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	4	4	1.0	0
Jihad Ward	1	5	0.0	0
L.J. Fort	6	0	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	2	3	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	2	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	2	2	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	4	0	0.0	1
Pernell McPhee	1	3	0.0	0
Marcus Peters	3	0	0.0	1
Brandon Williams	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7
Closing total: 47
CLE moneyline: +260
BAL moneyline: -302

Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: CLE 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.