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Baltimore Ravens 38, Browns 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 3rd and 1, on Patrick Ricard — 7.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 3rd and 1
Patrick Ricard
Browns
(15:00) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to CLE 7 for no gain (65-L.Ogunjobi). FUMBLES (65-L.Ogunjobi), touched at CLE 8, RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at CLE 12. 95-M.Garrett to CLE 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.
Baltimore Ravens 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Browns +7.8% win probability on one snap.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamie GillanRavensQ1 6:17(6:17) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan right end to CLE 29 for -2 yards (58-L.Fort). FUMBLES (58-L.Fort), touched at CLE 29, RECOVERED by BAL-41-A.Levine at CLE 27. 41-A.Levine to CLE 26 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge). Fake Punt.
5.6pts
Austin HooperBrownsQ2 11:11(11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to BAL 44 for 9 yards (22-J.Smith) [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.
6.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns162 of 169 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to CLE 7 for no gain (65-L.Ogunjobi). FUMBLES (65-L.Ogunjobi), touched at CLE 8, RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at CLE 12. 95-M.Garrett to CLE 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Swing −7.8 for RavensExpected points −5.42 for RavensThe model had Browns 10 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00CLE +8% win prob(15:00) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to CLE 7 for no gain (65-L.Ogunjobi). FUMBLES (65-L.Ogunjobi), touched at CLE 8, RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at CLE 12. 95-M.Garrett to CLE 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
2nd · 11:11BAL +6% win prob(11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to BAL 44 for 9 yards (22-J.Smith) [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.
1st · 6:17CLE +6% win prob(6:17) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan right end to CLE 29 for -2 yards (58-L.Fort). FUMBLES (58-L.Fort), touched at CLE 29, RECOVERED by BAL-41-A.Levine at CLE 27. 41-A.Levine to CLE 26 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge). Fake Punt.
1st · 2:50BAL +5% win prob(2:50) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to BAL 2 for 22 yards (48-P.Queen; 36-C.Clark).
1st · 12:27CLE +4% win prob(12:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 12-K.Hodge INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (93-C.Campbell) at BAL 43. 44-M.Humphrey to CLE 49 for 8 yards (81-A.Hooper).
1st · 1:34BAL +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Andrews's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:47 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Browns: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.20Ravens: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Browns: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.56Ravens: +0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.19Ravens: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Ravens 6.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens14.3%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 40.7% — and CLE swings 27.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%73 snaps
64JC TretterT · Every snap100%73 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Jedrick WillsOT · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
13Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Heavy rotation75%55 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Heavy rotation55%40 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Rotational48%35 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational42%31 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Situational23%17 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Situational22%16 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Situational22%16 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Situational16%12 snaps
31Andy JanovichRB · Situational12%9 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational5%4 snaps
19JoJo NatsonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin JohnsonCBGreedy WilliamsDBJoe JacksonDEChris HubbardGMack WilsonLBDonovan Peoples-JonesWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to BAL 44 for 9 yards (22-J.Smith) [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.
Q2 11:11 · Browns · 3rd & 10 at CLE 47 · gained 9 · +2.71 EP · +12.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 99 yards from the BAL 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.2061%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.6258%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.3074%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1483%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.5410%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.5433%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3850%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2840%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 47
Browns0Ravens6
Browns0Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 5
Drive ended3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns0Ravens10
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 23
Browns6Ravens10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Browns 13
2nd quarter50 plays
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Punt15 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Ravens 34
Drive ended2 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Ravens 3
Browns6Ravens16
Browns6Ravens17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Browns 3
No good9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 23
Browns6Ravens23
Browns6Ravens24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Browns 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 45
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 45
Browns6Ravens30
Browns6Ravens31
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 19
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 28
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Browns 44
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 12
4th quarter35 plays
Browns6Ravens37
Browns6Ravens38
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 43
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Browns 47
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7
Closing total
47
Browns moneyline
+260
Ravens moneyline
-302
Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-east; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Browns 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(1:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to CLE 16 for 47 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
2nd · 0:46CLE +3% win prob(:46) 4-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
1st · 9:10BAL +3% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end to CLE 10 for 15 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CLE 10, recovered by BAL-21-M.Ingram at CLE 7.
Brownscategory by categoryRavens
Browns0
Ravens6
