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Los Angeles Rams 20, Cowboys 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 11:46, 4th and 3, on CeeDee Lamb — 15.7 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:46 · 4th and 3
CeeDee Lamb
Rams
(11:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to LA 9 for 2 yards (32-J.Fuller).
Dome
Rams closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Los Angeles Rams 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:46, Rams +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Greg ZuerleinRamsQ2 5:17(5:17) 2-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL-75-C.Erving was injured during the play.
12.8pts
Van JeffersonRamsQ2 3:52(3:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson to DAL 21 for 31 yards (27-T.Diggs).
11.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 10 of 18 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 7 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.02 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cowboys177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(11:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to LA 9 for 2 yards (32-J.Fuller).
Swing +15.7 for RamsExpected points +3.29 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:46DAL +16% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to LA 9 for 2 yards (32-J.Fuller).
2nd · 5:17DAL +13% win prob(5:17) 2-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL-75-C.Erving was injured during the play.
2nd · 3:52LA +11% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson to DAL 21 for 31 yards (27-T.Diggs).
4th · 1:42DAL +10% win prob(1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 18 for -7 yards (54-L.Floyd).
3rd · 3:58DAL +10% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Awuzie [58-A.Smith] at LA 39. 24-C.Awuzie to LA 39 for no gain (12-V.Jefferson).
3rd · 8:08LA +10% win prob(8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 17-R.Woods to DAL 26 for 30 yards (23-D.Thompson; 25-X.Woods).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Malcolm Brown's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 5:38 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
3rd5:38Malcolm Brown·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–20
3rd1:54Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryRams
Cowboys1–6Rams
380Total yards423
5.5Yards per play6.0
46%Success rate44%
25%Third-down rate56%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
23First downs24
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.06Rams: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Cowboys: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.01Rams: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 69 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Rams’s 71 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams15.6%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.8 pts, 10.0 points below their season mean of -0.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to LA 9 for 2 yards (32-J.Fuller).
Q4 11:46 · Cowboys · 4th & 3 at LA 11 · gained 2 · -3.29 EP · −18.7% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0765%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1151%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0535%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1440%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Cowboys0Rams6
Cowboys0Rams7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 45
No good18 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Cowboys 11
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Cowboys6Rams7
Cowboys7Rams7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Rams 14
Cowboys7Rams10
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 12
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 35
Cowboys7Rams13
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Cowboys 13
Cowboys13Rams13
Cowboys14Rams13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Rams 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Rams 39
Cowboys14Rams19
Cowboys14Rams20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Cowboys 2
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 30
Cowboys17Rams20
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 15
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 32
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Rams 11
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Cowboys 40
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 17
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 49
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
