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2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay43
BY 9final margin
VikingsMinnesota34
Green Bay Packers 43 at Minnesota Vikings 34. Final.
Vikings -1 upsetO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Green Bay Packers 43, Vikings 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 8:16, 3rd and 10, on Aaron Rodgers — 8.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:16 · 3rd and 10
Aaron Rodgers
Vikings
(8:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 12.
Dome
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 43–34. Biggest swing: Q2 8:16, Vikings +8.7% win probability on one snap.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Aaron RodgersPackersQ2 2:56(2:56) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to MIN 37 for 2 yards (51-H.Mata'afa).
7.9pts
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingPackersQ2 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 63% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 54% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Packers at +0.18 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(8:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 12.
Swing +8.7 for VikingsExpected points +1.74 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:16GB +9% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 12.
2nd · 0:21MIN +8% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:56MIN +8% win prob(2:56) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to MIN 37 for 2 yards (51-H.Mata'afa).
1st · 6:11MIN +7% win prob(6:11) 33-D.Cook left guard to GB 38 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 31-A.Amos). PENALTY on GB-58-C.Kirksey, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 38.
2nd · 0:07MIN +7% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 82-K.Rudolph to GB 32 for 22 yards (26-D.Savage). PENALTY on GB-26-D.Savage, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at GB 32.
2nd · 12:21GB +7% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (24-H.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 43-yard field goal with 8:12 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:31Mason Crosby·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+33–0
Packers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Packers: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.30Vikings: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Packers: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.27Vikings: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.33Vikings: +0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 74 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Packers 8, Vikings 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings4.5%
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was MIN's sack or hit rate, 4.5% against a season mean of 11.3% — and MIN swings 7.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
56 dressed · 9 never used
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%78 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%78 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%78 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Full-time97%76 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time90%70 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Full-time87%68 snaps
65Lane TaylorG · Full-time81%63 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
—Ricky WagnerG · Heavy rotation59%46 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation54%42 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 0:47 · Packers · 2nd & 9 at MIN 24 · gained 24 · +3.59 EP · +14.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 77 yards from the MIN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.25
Success rate
51%
Yards
910
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.5378%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2770%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1248%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.4038%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.9150%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0233%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.460%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.010%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Packers3Vikings0
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 10
Packers3Vikings6
Packers3Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 25
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 1
Packers5Vikings7
Drive ended3 plays, from the Vikings 1 to the Vikings 4
Packers8Vikings7
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Vikings 12
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.5 seconds
Packers14Vikings7
Packers15Vikings7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Vikings 24
Intercepted3 plays
Packers21Vikings7
Packers22Vikings7
Touchdown3 plays
Packers22Vikings10
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 17
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 49
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Packers 39
Packers28Vikings10
Packers29Vikings10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Vikings 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Packers29Vikings16
Packers29Vikings18
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Packers 37
Packers35Vikings18
Packers36Vikings18
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 4
Packers36Vikings24
Packers36Vikings26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Packers 3
Packers42Vikings26
Packers43Vikings26
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 5
Packers43Vikings32
Packers43Vikings34
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 19
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
