2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -1 upsetO 45 ✓DomeVikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 43–34. Biggest swing: Q2 8:16, GB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:16GB — MIN GB ball · 3rd & 10GB 51%

(8:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 12.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:16GB +9% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 12.
Q2 · 0:21MIN +8% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:56MIN +8% win prob(2:56) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to MIN 37 for 2 yards (51-H.Mata'afa).
Q1 · 6:11MIN +7% win prob(6:11) 33-D.Cook left guard to GB 38 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 31-A.Amos). PENALTY on GB-58-C.Kirksey, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 38.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Vikings
Offensive plays	74	51
Total yards	524 (edge)	386
Yards per play	7.1	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	0.30
Success rate	54%	63% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.41 (edge)	0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.33 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	3/6
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	24
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

32/44, 364 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

19/25, 259 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.7 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

16 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

6 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

14/17 for 156 yds, 2 TD

41% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

6/8 for 110 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	14	58	7:33	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 25	10	60	4:03	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 25	13	74	6:05	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 1	2	-1	0:40	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 44	9	39	3:31	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 25	5	-5	2:04	Punt
7	GB	GB 40	12	55	5:25	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 25	3	0	0:14	Interception
9	GB	MIN 45	3	45	0:11	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	4	43	0:14	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 25	8	31	3:03	Punt
12	GB	GB 9	8	32	4:32	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 19	6	37	3:05	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 39	9	61	4:11	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 23	6	79	1:16	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	9	75	3:51	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 35	9	67	2:07	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 25	10	85	4:36	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	1:58	Touchdown
20	GB	GB 49	3	0	1:21	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	32/44	364	4	0	0	18.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	16	66	4.1	1	-0.9
Tyler Ervin	3	38	12.7	0	2.5
Jamaal Williams	7	21	3.0	0	-0.1
Allen Lazard	1	19	19.0	0	1.3
A.J. Dillon	2	14	7.0	0	0.7
Aaron Rodgers	1	2	2.0	0	2.0
Tim Boyle	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	14	17	156	2	41%	7.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4	6	96	1	15%	8.5
Allen Lazard	4	4	63	1	10%	8.1
Jamaal Williams	4	4	21	0	10%	-0.6
Josiah Deguara	1	2	12	0	5%	0.4
Aaron Jones	4	6	10	0	15%	-2.4
Tyler Ervin	1	1	6	0	2%	0.6
Jace Sternberger	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Kirksey	6	6	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin King	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	4	1	1.0	1	1
Darnell Savage	3	2	0.0	0	0
Will Redmond	2	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	1	1	0.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	0	1.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	19/25	259	2	1	2	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	6	50	8.3	0	1.1
Dalvin Cook	12	50	4.2	2	5.6
Kirk Cousins	4	34	8.5	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	6	8	110	2	32%	8.5
Olabisi Johnson	3	4	56	0	16%	2.3
Alexander Mattison	4	4	30	0	16%	1.5
Kyle Rudolph	2	2	28	0	8%	2.4
Justin Jefferson	2	3	26	0	12%	-0.5
Irv Smith	1	1	11	0	4%	2.1
Tajae Sharpe	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.9
Dalvin Cook	1	2	-2	0	8%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Eric Kendricks	7	4	0
Anthony Harris	5	3	0
Holton Hill	7	0	1
Mike Hughes	4	3	0
Anthony Barr	6	0	0
Harrison Smith	4	0	0
Eric Wilson	3	0	0
Jaleel Johnson	2	1	0
Cameron Dantzler	3	0	0
Eddie Yarbrough	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -1
Closing total: 45
GB moneyline: +103
MIN moneyline: -114

Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 77 — over by 32.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: GB 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.