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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 34. Final.
Chiefs -9.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs 34, Texans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:02, 2nd and 1, on David Johnson — 6.9 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:02 · 2nd and 1
David Johnson
Texans
(5:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Kansas City Chiefs 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:02, Texans +6.9% win probability on one snap.
6.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Patrick MahomesTexansQ1 11:03(11:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at HOU 44 for -8 yards (54-J.Martin).
5.3pts
Anthony ShermanChiefsQ1 3:00(3:00) 42-A.Sherman left guard to KC 36 for 2 yards (99-J.Watt).
5.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(5:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.9 for ChiefsExpected points −2.33 for ChiefsThe model had Texans 26 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:02KC +7% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:00KC +5% win prob(3:00) 42-A.Sherman left guard to KC 36 for 2 yards (99-J.Watt).
1st · 11:03HOU +5% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at HOU 44 for -8 yards (54-J.Martin).
2nd · 9:21KC +5% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right guard to KC 39 for 9 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
2nd · 2:30KC +4% win prob(2:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 14-S.Watkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:54KC +4% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 32 for 7 yards (21-B.Roby).
2nd · 14:17KC +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sammy Watkins's 2-yard touchdown catch with 2:30 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th0:33Harrison Butker·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+320–34
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans2–6Chiefs
361Total yards369
6.2Yards per play5.5
52%Success rate52%
44%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays4
22First downs25
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Texans: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.21Chiefs: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Texans: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.42Chiefs: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Texans: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs17.1%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.3%, 17.5 points below their season mean of 62.8% and 1.7 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:17 · Chiefs · 3rd & goal at HOU 6 · gained 6 · +2.77 EP · +10.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 91 yards from the KC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
48%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.3768%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2457%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1353%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.5454%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.160%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3820%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Texans 36
Texans6Chiefs0
Texans7Chiefs0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 19
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Texans 21
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans7Chiefs6
Texans7Chiefs7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 6
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to midfield
Texans7Chiefs13
Texans7Chiefs14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Texans 1
No good13 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 33
Texans7Chiefs17
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Texans 11
3rd quarter32 plays
Texans7Chiefs23
Texans7Chiefs24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Texans 27
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 21 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Texans 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 10
4th quarter52 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 36
Texans7Chiefs30
Texans7Chiefs31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 1
Texans13Chiefs31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 19
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 31
Texans19Chiefs31
Texans20Chiefs31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Chiefs 1
Texans20Chiefs34
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
