2020 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 10, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Houston Texans

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -9.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Kansas City Chiefs 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:02, KC +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:02HOU — KC HOU ball · 2nd & 1KC 69%

(5:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:02KC +7% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:00KC +5% win prob(3:00) 42-A.Sherman left guard to KC 36 for 2 yards (99-J.Watt).
Q1 · 11:03HOU +5% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at HOU 44 for -8 yards (54-J.Martin).
Q2 · 9:21KC +5% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right guard to KC 39 for 9 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Chiefs
Offensive plays	58	67
Total yards	361	369 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.15	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	52%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	4/9	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

20/32, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.5 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/32, 211 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

25 att, 138 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

11 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

8/10 for 112 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Sammy WatkinsWR

7/9 for 82 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	0:53	Punt
2	KC	KC 35	9	21	4:01	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 20	10	80	5:12	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 25	13	75	5:41	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 25	6	25	2:43	Punt
6	KC	KC 9	17	86	9:04	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 20	12	47	2:01	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 41	4	28	0:25	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 25	9	80	4:07	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 21	10	27	4:56	Punt
11	KC	KC 10	9	47	4:45	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 5	4	31	1:57	Interception
13	KC	HOU 17	7	10	2:50	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	12	75	4:10	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 27	5	3	1:46	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 35	8	65	2:51	Touchdown
17	KC	HOU 20	7	19	2:08	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 25	4	6	0:30	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 86 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	20/32	253	1	1	4	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	11	77	7.0	1	4.6
Deshaun Watson	6	27	4.5	1	1.4
Duke Johnson	5	14	2.8	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	8	10	112	0	32%	8.3
Jordan Akins	2	2	39	1	6%	4.3
David Johnson	3	4	32	0	13%	0.8
Randall Cobb	2	3	23	0	10%	0.3
Brandin Cooks	2	5	20	0	16%	-5.0
Darren Fells	2	2	19	0	6%	0.9
DeAndre Carter	1	2	8	0	6%	1.2
Duke Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3
Kenny Stills	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Eric Murray	3	4	0
John Reid	6	1	0
Benardrick McKinney	5	2	0
Zach Cunningham	4	2	0
Bradley Roby	6	0	0
P.J. Hall	4	1	0
Justin Reid	5	0	1
Vernon Hargreaves	4	0	0
J.J. Watt	3	1	0
Whitney Mercilus	3	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/32	211	3	0	1	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	25	138	5.5	1	0.2
Darrel Williams	7	23	3.3	0	-1.8
Sammy Watkins	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Anthony Sherman	1	2	2.0	0	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sammy Watkins	7	9	82	1	28%	7.2
Travis Kelce	6	6	50	1	19%	5.3
Tyreek Hill	5	6	46	1	19%	6.4
Demarcus Robinson	3	6	20	0	19%	-0.9
Darrel Williams	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.2
Mecole Hardman	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	4	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	3	1	1.5	0	0
Dorian O'Daniel	3	1	1.0	0	0
Frank Clark	2	1	1.0	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	3	0	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	3	0	0.0	1	2
Michael Danna	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tedric Thompson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -9.5
Closing total: 53.5
HOU moneyline: +349
KC moneyline: -423

Chiefs closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 54 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: HOU 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Andy Reid