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2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
20
27
Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:32, IND +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 69 | 46 |
| Total yards | 445 (edge) | 244 |
| Yards per play | 6.4 (edge) | 5.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 48% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 | 0.27 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.28 | -0.08 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/12 | 5/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Colts outgained Jaguars 445–244 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
36/46, 363 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
9.9 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
19/20, 173 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
8.5 expected points added · +20.5% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
6/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 37 | 9 | 63 | 3:18 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 13 | 10 | 38 | 5:24 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 33 | 7 | 64 | 3:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 3 | 8 | 30 | 3:42 | Punt | |
| 5 | IND | IND 15 | 4 | 20 | 1:37 | Interception | |
| 6 | JAX | IND 27 | 5 | 27 | 2:08 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | IND | IND 25 | 13 | 75 | 5:57 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 25 | 11 | 75 | 3:07 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | IND | IND 33 | 8 | 47 | 1:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | JAX | — | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | -7 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 12 | IND | IND 29 | 11 | 64 | 5:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 20 | 7 | 18 | 4:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | IND | IND 21 | 14 | 64 | 8:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 25 | 8 | 60 | 3:43 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 14 | 1:32 | Interception | |
| 17 | JAX | IND 31 | 4 | 3 | 1:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | IND | IND 25 | 9 | 34 | 2:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 26 | 1 | 0 | 0:44 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 36/46 | 363 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 20% | -0.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 13% | 4.0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Walker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 19/20 | 173 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 47 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -3.8 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 9% | 4.3 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 8 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 17% | 2.3 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7% | 1.6 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4% | 1.5 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | 0.2 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4% | 0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khari Willis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Houston | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 25% | 4.4 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 20% | 3.3 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 5% | 2.1 |
| D.J. Chark | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 15% | 4.4 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 2.6 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 0.6 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | -1.7 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.3 |
| Bruce Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | 0.8 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jones | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Schobert | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Hayden | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tre Herndon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Claybrooks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
