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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 27. Final.
Colts -7 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Colts 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:32, 3rd and 3, on Andrew Wingard — 17.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:32 · 3rd and 3
Andrew Wingard
Jaguars
(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).
O 44 ✓
15.3 mph wind
Colts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:32, Jaguars +17.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keelan ColeJaguarsQ4 6:04(6:04) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 84-K.Cole for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.0pts
Philip RiversJaguarsQ4 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (23-C.Henderson).
15.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.28 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts151 of 159 plays carry both curves
(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).
Swing +17.0 for JaguarsExpected points +4.33 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 10 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:32IND +17% win prob(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).
4th · 0:49IND +15% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (23-C.Henderson).
4th · 6:04JAX +14% win prob(6:04) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 84-K.Cole for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:47JAX +9% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:05JAX +9% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 30-J.Robinson pushed ob at IND 47 for 28 yards (29-M.Hooker).
3rd · 3:36JAX +9% win prob(3:36) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
3rd · 7:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keelan Cole's 22-yard touchdown catch with 6:04 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th2:54Josh Lambo·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts5–3Jaguars
445Total yards244
6.4Yards per play5.3
48%Success rate50%
33%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
22First downs15
1Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Colts: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.13Jaguars: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Colts: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.27Jaguars: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Colts: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 69 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 46 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Colts 7, Jaguars 3.
NoteColts outgained Jaguars 445-244 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Jaguars12.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 40.6 points above their season mean of 34.4% and 1.6 times their own 25.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%74 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%74 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Every snap99%73 snaps
15Parris CampbellWR · Full-time82%61 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Full-time80%59 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Heavy rotation62%46 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational39%29 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Rotational35%26 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Situational15%11 snaps
63Danny PinterOG · Situational7%5 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational1%1 snap
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Eli AnkouDTJacob EasonQBJulian BlackmonSAFNoah TogiaiTEDezmon PatmonWR
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%50 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%50 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%50 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%50 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%50 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time84%42 snaps
30James RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation68%34 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation66%33 snaps
10Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Heavy rotation62%31 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Henderson at IND 49. 23-C.Henderson to IND 27 for 22 yards (13-T.Hilton).
Q2 13:00 · Colts · 3rd & 10 at IND 35 · gained nothing · -4.40 EP · −13.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
48%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0365%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2158%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.24100%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1917%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Colts6Jaguars0
Colts7Jaguars0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Jaguars 12
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 41
Drive ended5 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Jaguars 12
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 27
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter2 plays
Punt1 play
1st quarter1 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
2nd quarter3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Colts7Jaguars6
Colts7Jaguars7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 6
Colts13Jaguars7
Colts14Jaguars7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Colts14Jaguars13
Colts14Jaguars14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 15
Colts17Jaguars14
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Jaguars 20
The period ended1 play
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Jaguars 12
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Colts17Jaguars17
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Colts 26
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 21 to midfield
4th quarter39 plays
Drive ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 14
Colts20Jaguars17
Field goal1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Colts20Jaguars23
Colts20Jaguars24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 32
Colts20Jaguars27
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
