2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

IND -7 upsetO 44 ✓Colts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:32, IND +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:32IND — JAX IND ball · 3rd & 3JAX 65%

(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:32IND +17% win prob(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 15-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at IND 43. 42-A.Wingard to IND 31 for 12 yards (15-P.Campbell).
Q4 · 0:49IND +15% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (23-C.Henderson).
Q4 · 6:04JAX +14% win prob(6:04) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 84-K.Cole for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:47JAX +9% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	69	46
Total yards	445 (edge)	244
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	48%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Colts outgained Jaguars 445–244 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

36/46, 363 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

9.9 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

19/20, 173 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +20.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

16 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

7 att, 28 yds, 1 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Parris CampbellWR

6/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

6/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 37	9	63	3:18	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 13	10	38	5:24	Punt
3	IND	IND 33	7	64	3:09	Turnover on downs
4	JAX	JAX 3	8	30	3:42	Punt
5	IND	IND 15	4	20	1:37	Interception
6	JAX	IND 27	5	27	2:08	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 25	13	75	5:57	Touchdown
8	JAX	JAX 25	11	75	3:07	Touchdown
9	IND	IND 33	8	47	1:33	Turnover on downs
10	JAX	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
11	JAX	JAX 25	5	-7	1:58	Punt
12	IND	IND 29	11	64	5:20	Turnover on downs
13	JAX	JAX 20	7	18	4:12	Turnover on downs
14	IND	IND 21	14	64	8:51	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 25	8	60	3:43	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 25	5	14	1:32	Interception
17	JAX	IND 31	4	3	1:34	Turnover on downs
18	IND	IND 25	9	34	2:06	Turnover on downs
19	JAX	JAX 26	1	0	0:44	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	36/46	363	1	2	0	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	7	28	4.0	1	-2.8
Marlon Mack	4	26	6.5	0	0.9
Jonathan Taylor	9	22	2.4	0	-3.7
Parris Campbell	1	9	9.0	0	-0.3
Philip Rivers	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Parris Campbell	6	9	71	0	20%	-0.5
Jonathan Taylor	6	6	67	0	13%	4.0
T.Y. Hilton	4	9	53	0	20%	-3.8
Jack Doyle	3	4	49	0	9%	4.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	8	8	45	1	17%	2.3
Marlon Mack	3	3	30	0	7%	1.6
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	20	0	4%	1.5
Zach Pascal	2	3	18	0	7%	0.2
Michael Pittman	2	2	10	0	4%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	5	5	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	5	2	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	4	2	0.0	0
Malik Hooker	3	2	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	3	1	0.0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	3	1	0.0	0
Khari Willis	1	2	1.0	0
Kenny Moore	2	0	0.0	1
Justin Houston	2	0	1.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	19/20	173	3	0	4	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	16	62	3.9	-1.6
Gardner Minshew	5	19	3.8	-0.9
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	10	5.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	5	5	47	1	25%	4.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	4	37	1	20%	3.3
James Robinson	1	1	28	0	5%	2.1
D.J. Chark	3	3	25	1	15%	4.4
Collin Johnson	1	1	14	0	5%	2.6
Tyler Eifert	1	1	8	0	5%	0.6
Chris Thompson	2	2	6	0	10%	-1.7
Chris Conley	1	1	6	0	5%	0.3
Bruce Miller	1	1	2	0	5%	0.8
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Josh Jones	6	6	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	8	3	1.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	5	3	0.0	0	0
D.J. Hayden	6	0	0.0	0	0
C.J. Henderson	5	0	0.0	1	3
Tre Herndon	4	0	0.0	0	1
Chris Claybrooks	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jarrod Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Andrew Wingard	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -7
Closing total: 44
IND moneyline: -309
JAX moneyline: +265

Colts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 47 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.