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2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles16
BY 3final margin
BengalsCincinnati13
Los Angeles Chargers 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 13. Final.
Chargers -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers 16, Bengals 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:07, 1st and 13, on Randy Bullock — 32.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07 · 1st and 13
Randy Bullock
Chargers
(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Los Angeles Chargers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Chargers +32.7% win probability on one snap.
32.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe MixonChargersQ4 12:20(12:20) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 21 for -4 yards (52-D.Perryman). FUMBLES (52-D.Perryman), RECOVERED by LAC-59-N.Vigil at CIN 24. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 24 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
17.4pts
M.IngramChargersQ4 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 25-G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram III at LAC 24. 54-M.Ingram III to LAC 24 for no gain (25-G.Bernard). Penalty on CIN-66-T.Hopkins, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
29.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 2 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bengals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Chargers179 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Swing −32.7 for BengalsExpected points −2.84 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07LAC +33% win prob(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
4th · 5:19LAC +30% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 25-G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram III at LAC 24. 54-M.Ingram III to LAC 24 for no gain (25-G.Bernard). Penalty on CIN-66-T.Hopkins, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
4th · 12:20LAC +17% win prob(12:20) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 21 for -4 yards (52-D.Perryman). FUMBLES (52-D.Perryman), RECOVERED by LAC-59-N.Vigil at CIN 24. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 24 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
4th · 0:12LAC +16% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-18-A.Green, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 3 - No Play.
4th · 1:36CIN +15% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to LAC 36 for 10 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
4th · 0:18CIN +15% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 22-yard field goal with 8:59 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:59Michael Badgley·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.MazzaLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBengals
Chargers6–3Bengals
363Total yards295
5.2Yards per play4.5
37%Success rate42%
38%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
17First downs19
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.22Bengals: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.17Bengals: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Chargers: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.30Bengals: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 70 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bengals’s 66 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Bengals 2.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals11.8%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.5 pts, 13.8 points below their season mean of -1.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Randy Bullock−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 0:07 · Bengals · 1st & goal at LAC 13 · gained nothing · -2.84 EP · −36.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 79 yards from the CIN 18 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
657
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0050%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1962%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.6030%
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR7-0.2771%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2533%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 30
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 23
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 5 to the Chargers 10
Chargers0Bengals6
Chargers0Bengals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 23
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bengals 45
2nd quarter52 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Chargers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chargers3Bengals7
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Bengals 6
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 42 to midfield
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Bengals 41
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Bengals 42
Chargers6Bengals7
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Bengals 25
3rd quarter39 plays
No good9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bengals 32
Chargers6Bengals10
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Chargers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
Chargers6Bengals13
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Chargers 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Bengals 33
4th quarter52 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers12Bengals13
Chargers13Bengals13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays
Chargers16Bengals13
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chargers 23
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
No good17 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Chargers 3
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -2.5
Closing total
41.5
Chargers moneyline
-129
Bengals moneyline
+117
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Zac Taylor
(:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 25-G.Bernard pushed ob at LAC 3 for 10 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
2nd · 8:38CIN +14% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to CIN 18 for 37 yards (30-J.Bates III). PENALTY on CIN-30-J.Bates III, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18.
3rd · 11:43LAC +12% win prob(11:43) 4-M.Badgley 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
