2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

LAC -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Los Angeles Chargers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, LAC +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:07LAC — CIN CIN ball · 1st & 13LAC 64%

(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:07LAC +33% win prob(:07) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 · 5:19LAC +30% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 25-G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram III at LAC 24. 54-M.Ingram III to LAC 24 for no gain (25-G.Bernard). Penalty on CIN-66-T.Hopkins, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q4 · 12:20LAC +17% win prob(12:20) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 21 for -4 yards (52-D.Perryman). FUMBLES (52-D.Perryman), RECOVERED by LAC-59-N.Vigil at CIN 24. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 24 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
Q4 · 0:12LAC +16% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-18-A.Green, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 3 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Bengals
Offensive plays	70	66
Total yards	363 (edge)	295
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	37%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	49%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	6/16	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Tyrod TaylorQB

16/30, 208 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/36, 193 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

19 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

19 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-8.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Hunter HenryTE

5/8 for 73 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

4/9 for 69 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	5	5	1:20	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 20	7	17	1:55	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 21	7	16	3:33	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 17	4	6	1:19	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 38	4	0	1:14	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 5	4	5	1:40	Punt
7	CIN	LAC 44	6	39	1:35	Touchdown
8	LAC	LAC 25	8	35	2:27	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 40	7	14	3:39	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 20	11	75	4:08	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	CIN 42	5	8	2:17	Punt
12	LAC	LAC 20	7	34	3:42	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 41	4	6	0:38	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 14	6	61	0:33	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 25	8	43	3:20	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 40	7	29	2:28	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 25	5	2	1:32	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 32	11	43	6:08	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 45	12	55	4:09	Touchdown
20	CIN	CIN 25	3	-1	0:09	Fumble
21	LAC	CIN 24	8	21	3:18	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 25	8	52	3:43	Interception
23	LAC	LAC 24	4	9	2:05	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 18	14	84	3:06	Turnover on downs
25	LAC	LAC 21	1	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	16/30	208	0	0	2	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	19	84	4.4	0	-1.9
Joshua Kelley	12	60	5.0	1	2.3
Tyrod Taylor	6	7	1.2	0	-5.5
Justin Jackson	2	4	2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	5	8	73	28%	-1.0
Mike Williams	4	9	69	31%	0.2
Keenan Allen	4	8	37	28%	1.0
Jalen Guyton	1	1	16	3%	2.0
Virgil Green	1	2	10	7%	-0.2
Austin Ekeler	1	1	3	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Casey Hayward	12	0	0.0	2
Kenneth Murray	4	4	0.0	0
Nick Vigil	3	2	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	2	1.0	0
Linval Joseph	2	2	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	4	0	1.0	0
Desmond King	2	1	0.0	0
Chris Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	1	2	0.0	0
Isaac Rochell	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/36	193	0	1	3	-6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	19	69	3.6	0	-8.7
Joe Burrow	8	46	5.8	1	0.2
Giovani Bernard	1	7	7.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	5	9	51	26%	-1.1
C.J. Uzomah	4	5	45	14%	2.6
Tyler Boyd	4	5	33	14%	2.8
Giovani Bernard	4	5	21	14%	-3.6
John Ross	2	5	17	14%	-1.4
Mike Thomas	2	3	17	9%	-0.2
Drew Sample	1	1	7	3%	0.3
Joe Mixon	1	2	2	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Germaine Pratt	6	4	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	6	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	5	3	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	3	4	1.0	0
Jessie Bates	5	0	0.0	2
D.J. Reader	1	4	0.0	0
William Jackson	3	1	0.0	2
Carl Lawson	3	1	1.0	0
Logan Wilson	3	0	0.0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 41.5
LAC moneyline: -129
CIN moneyline: +117

Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LAC 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Zac Taylor